This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Chris Sale: Pitcher, Red Sox
There are a lot of strong pitching options on today’s slate, but Sale possesses more strikeout upside than almost any MLB pitcher. He has a slate-high SO/9 of 12.88 over the past year and trails only Justin Verlander on today’s slate with his 12-month 1.00 WHIP. Unsurprisingly, Sale carries a slate-high K Prediction of 10.3, and the Red Sox are today’s largest favorite (per our Vegas Dashboard):
He takes the mound against a projected White Sox lineup with a slate-low 2.9-run implied total as well as a slate-high 29.2% strikeout rate and bottom-two .286 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against left handed-pitchers.
Sale has impressive Statcast data with a slate-low 86-mph exit velocity and bottom-two 21% hard-hit rate over his past two starts. Additionally, with the aforementioned Verlander, Stephen Strasburg, and Jacob deGrom on the slate, Sale is unlikely to have outlandish ownership, so he’s still more than viable as an option in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Jacob deGrom: Pitcher, Mets
deGrom has a tough matchup against the Yankees, who have a top-three .335 wOBA against right-handed pitching over the past year, so his ownership could be relatively low. Even so, he has significant upside: The projected Yankees lineup has a top-five 27.2% strikeout rate, and deGrom trails only Sale with a K Prediction of 8.6. The game is basically a pick’em for the Mets (-110), but the Yankees are implied for only 3.6 runs. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have historically been valuable on DraftKings (per our Trends tool):
Almost always an elite option, deGrom boasts a 1.058 WHIP, 0.86 HR/9 and 11.02 SO/9 over the past 12 months, and his recent Statcast data inspires confidence even in a suboptimal matchup. He has a recent batted-ball distance of 195 feet, exit velocity of 87 miles per hour and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 28% and 18%. His peripheral stats make him an intriguing upside play in GPPs.
Dexter Fowler: Outfielder, Cardinals
Finding cheap stacks is important if you’re looking to roster a high-end pitcher or Coors batters, and with the Lineup Builder it’s easy to find value. The Cardinals have a healthy implied run total (5.3) and top-three Team Value Rating (84) on DraftKings:
St. Louis is in a prime spot against Reds pitcher Matt Harvey, who owns an atrocious 1.97 HR/9 and 1.69 WHIP over the past year.
One way to differentiate Cardinals stacks in our Models could be to skip No. 5 hitter Yadier Molina and roster No. 6 hitter Dexter Fowler instead. He is on the right side of his batting splits with a .348 wOBA and .197 isolated power over the past year against righties. Additionally, his recent Statcast numbers stand out with a batted-ball distance of 224 feet, exit velocity of 96 mph and hard-hit rate of 65%. He could also be due for some progression with a team-leading +58 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL). Historically, hitters with similar implied totals, lineup spots, and recent batted-ball data have averaged a +0.71 DraftKings Plus/Minus. If you add a filter for RBBL, the Plus/Minus spikes to +2.49.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Jacob deGrom
Photo credit: Adam Hagy-USA TODAY Sports
