This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
CC Sabathia: Pitcher, Yankees
There are five main-slate pitchers with at least -160 moneyline odds, and of the group Sabathia (-165) is perhaps the most intriguing despite his middling 6.1 K Prediction. He has arguably the best recent Statcast data, including a batted-ball distance of 182 feet, exit velocity of 85 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 25%. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas odds, Statcast data and K Predictions are rare and remarkably valuable on FanDuel at low ownership (per our Trends tool):
He is a much better value on FanDuel with a 91% Bargain Rating but is in play on both sites with the added bonus of an appealing 85 Park Factor at Tropicana Field. The projected Rays lineup has a mediocre 27.9% strikeout rate and .310 wOBA against left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
DJ LeMahieu: Second Baseman, Rockies
There’s a game at Coors Field tonight, so naturally, the Rockies could be chalky as they take on Marlins lefty Wei-Yin Chen, who owns a bottom-two 1.53 WHIP and brutal 1.63 HR/9 over the past 12 months. Colorado leads the slate with 6.9 implied runs and an 83 Team Value Rating on DraftKings:
Projected to lead off, LeMahieu has strong recent Statcast data with an average batted-ball distance of 226 feet, exit velocity of 95 mph and hard-hit rate of 46%. Those numbers trounce his 12-month averages, giving him differentials of +23 feet, +4 mph and +13 percentage points. He’s in a great spot, as he owns an elite .419 wOBA and .256 ISO over the past year against lefties. Batters with comparable implied totals, lineup spots and Statcast differentials have a historical Plus/Minus of +4.24 and 57.1% Consistency Rating.
Dansby Swanson: Shortstop, Braves
Finding value is important if you’re looking to roster a high-end pitcher or some Coors batters. With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to find value on a team level. Of the non-Coors teams, a top five-man DraftKings stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Braves, implied for a healthy 5.0 runs against the Orioles:
The Braves have a prime matchup against Orioles pitcher Alex Cobb, who owns a high 1.56 HR/9 and slate-worst 6.56 SO/9 over the past year.
Batting second, Dansby Swanson could offer salary relief at just $3,500 and $2,900 on DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s been crushing the ball lately with a batted-ball distance of 228 feet and exit velocity of 91 mph, giving him 15-day/12-month differentials of +21 feet and +2 mph. Historically, hitters with similar salaries, comparable implied totals and recent Statcast data have averaged a +3.81 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: DJ LeMahieu
Photo credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
