This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Jose Berrios: Pitcher, Twins
He has only one win this season, but Berrios’ K Prediction of 7.8 leads the slate, and the Twins are a solid -187 moneyline favorite against the White Sox. Historically, FanDuel pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas odds have been safe investments (per our Trends tool):
Berrios is a solid pitcher with a 1.20 WHIP, 0.92 HR/9, and 8.95 SO/9 over the past 12 months. He’s in an excellent matchup against a projected White Sox lineup that has a high 29.8% strikeout rate and a subpar .283 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against right-handed pitchers over the past year. He’s affordable on FanDuel with his 91% Bargain Rating.
Brett Gardner: Outfielder, Yankees
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Yankees, who are implied for a slate-high 6.3 runs:
Per our Vegas Dashboard, New York has a DraftKings Team Value Rating of 84, the second-highest mark on the main slate. The Yankees take on Indians righty Josh Tomlin, who easily has the slate’s worst Statcast data with a recent batted-ball distance of 256 feet, exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 50% and 52%. Since this 1-5 stack will likely be popular, you could differentiate it by removing leadoff hitter Brett Gardner, who has a subpar recent batted-ball distance of 189 feet, exit velocity of 87 mph, and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 32% and 24%. He also sports a -54 Recent Batted Ball Luck, indicating that his short-term fantasy production has been more about luck and less about how he’s swung the bat.
Matthew Joyce: Outfielder, Athletics
Underpriced leadoff hitters are typically preferred targets of high-stakes DFS players. On Wednesday’s slate, Jonathan Villar owned one of the highest volatility ratings on DraftKings at $3,300 (per the Ownership Dashboard):
Facing struggling Orioles right-hander Andrew Cashner, Joyce could certainly be that player on today’s slate. He’s been crushing the baseball as of late, boasting a recent average distance of 228 feet, exit velocity of 97 mph, and hard-hit rate of 66 percent. Those numbers trounce his 12-month averages, giving him a distance differential of +4 feet, velocity differential of +6 mph, and hard-hit differential of +35 percentage points. His +32 Recent Batted Ball Luck suggests that Joyce is hitting the ball better than his short-term fantasy production indicates.
Good luck today, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Brett Gardner
Photo credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
