This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Max Scherzer: Pitcher, Nationals
Rostering Scherzer at his high salary isn’t easy, but the high-stakes players are likely to do it. He was priced similarly for his last start (5/19), and the sharps rostered him at a significantly higher rate than the low-stakes players:
Scherzer leads the slate with an 11.0 K Prediction against a projected Miami lineup currently implied for a slate-low 2.8 runs and above-average 26.3% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. Only 56 pitchers in our database have had a K Prediction higher than 10.0, and they averaged a +3.09 DraftKings Plus/Minus, and fewer than 10 of them had Vegas data comparable to Scherzer’s. Even though it’s extreme, his high K Prediction is warranted: His 13.01 SO/9 is rare, and he has 13, 11, and 15 strikeouts over his past three starts. The Nationals are slate-best -231 favorites against the Marlins.
Noah Syndergaard: Pitcher, Mets
Tonight’s slate is loaded with five main-slate pitchers priced higher than $10,000 on DraftKings. Among those five, Syndergaard has the most impressive Statcast data with a recent batted-ball distance of 168 feet, exit velocity of 84 miles per hour, and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 19% and 22%. Historically, pitchers with comparable Statcast data have yielded a strong Plus/Minus at surprisingly low ownership:
Given the wealth of elite pitchers in our Models, Syndergaard might have lower ownership than we’d otherwise expect.
Syndergaard owns a respectable 1.18 WHIP and 10.29 K/9, and he doesn’t give up a lot of home runs as evidenced by his 0.59 HR/9. The projected Brewers lineup has a mediocre 24.5% strikeout rate and .296 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Syndergaard’s 6.8 K Prediction is middling, but his immaculate Statcast data and matchup-based expectation make him an upside play in guaranteed prize pools at reduced ownership.
Charlie Blackmon: Outfielder, Rockies
To go along with a bevy of high-end pitchers we also have a Coors Field game in good weather. The Rockies have the pleasure of facing Reds righty Sal Romano and his pathetic 1.503 WHIP, and they also sport an exceptional Team Value Rating of 93 on DraftKings:
Implied for a slate-high 6.8 runs, the Rockies have the upside for even more considering that they are at the most hitter-friendly park in baseball, where batters have historically averaged an impressive +1.1 Plus/Minus. Because of the loaded pitching slate, the Rockies might have lower home ownership than usual. Blackmon is projected to lead off for Colorado and is on the positive side of his splits, sporting an elite .410 wOBA and .276 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. Historically, hitters with comparable spots in the order and peripheral stats have averaged a +2.00 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 54.1% Consistency Rating at Coors Field.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Max Scherzer
Photo credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
