This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key golfers from this weekend’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade options. It provides analysis.
J.T. Poston
In a surprisingly deep field, the rookie Poston arrives at TPC Four Seasons at Las Colinas with seven straight made cuts and the 28th-highest Recent Adjusted Round (Adj Rd) Score at 68.9. Over the last year, Poston has exceeded his DraftKings salary expectations with an +11.7 Plus/Minus, averaging 61.6 points per tournament. With the weather expected to be bad again this week, Scrambling (SC) ability will be important, and Poston has a 68.6 percent Recent SC rate. Per our Trends tool, golfers with similar Recent SC stats have exceeded salary-based expectations:
With his consistent cut-making Poston is an intriguing FanDuel option for Rounds 3-4.
Bud Cauley
Last year Cauley tied for fourth at the Byron Nelson after a yearlong break due to labrum replacement surgery. This year he arrives in good health and the best form of his career with a respectable 69.8 LT Adj Rd Score. His year started with a bang, grabbing a T3 at the Career Builder Challenge, and he has top-10 performances in his two most recent events. Still, Cauley has recently struggled with bogeys . . .
. . . and because of the weather (winds of 15 miles per hour are expected) this year’s tournament won’t be the birdie fest that last year’s was. Keep your eye on him for “weekend golf” at DraftKings, where bogeys are much less disastrous. Even with his Recent Bogey Score, Cauley is a top-five golfer in the CSURAM88 Player Model.
Patrick Reed
Reed has missed the cut in three of his last five tournaments and in his only two appearances at The Byron Nelson, so he’s probably terrifying for people who focus on recent form and course history. That said, when he’s not off he can be very on:
Reed is currently sixth in the field with 2.9 percent odds to win the Byron Nelson, but we have him projected to be owned in only two to four percent of tournament lineups. He could provide a contrarian edge in guaranteed prize pools.
Good luck, and be sure to read Kelly McCann’s PGA Breakdown!
