It’s probably safe to say that the Zurich Classic is a bit of a cream puff on the PGA Tour schedule. With an average winning score just above 20 under par, even the lower-end players will have a shot at sniffing the top of the leaderboard. TPC Louisiana was designed by the architectural legend Pete Dye, whose golf courses are built to chew up and spit out players who can’t play target golf. While the course will reward players with plenty of birdies, the advised move would be to stick with players who have a reputation for being more strategic on the course rather than reckless.
The Par 3s
Once again, more 200-plus-yard Par 3s. Obviously the longer hitters have the advantage here – being able to hit short-to-mid irons into these holes is a huge advantage over those needing to hit long irons. Three of the four holes feature water running up an entire side, so accuracy will be key on these holes this week. It is likely that most players will be more than happy to walk away with a two-putt par. The only Par 3 to feature a scoring average below par over the past three years has been Hole 14, which is the only one of the four holes that does not bring water into play. Being able to capitalize on Par 3 scoring will not be key this week.
Par 3 Scoring Average (2013 to 2015)
Over the past three seasons, players have averaged +1.25 strokes per tournament on the Par 3s. Using that as the value for Recent Par 3 Scoring in the Trends tool, we get the following:
It seems to be a slightly positive indicator of success, with a Plus/Minus of +0.29 points. For this week, the majority of the field were current matches.
The Par 4s
These are the make-or-break holes this week. TPC Louisiana features plenty of short Par 4s that, if played correctly, will allow for promising birdie opportunities. On the other hand, though, there’s also three Par 4s that are pushing 500 yards. Cashing in on the shorter holes and surviving the long ones will be the name of the game. Perhaps an abstract way to project performance would be to consider a player’s Par 5 performance to predict how they might handle the extremely long Par 4s.
Given the variance of these holes, there isn’t one group of stats that can be targeted. The Trends tool will help you analyze a player’s performance on both short and long holes and blend it into one model score.
Par 4 Scoring Average (2013 to 2015)
Over the past three seasons, players have averaged -1.01 strokes per tournament on the Par 4s. Using that as the value for Recent Par 4 Scoring in the Trends tool, we get the following:
It seems to be a positive indicator of success, with a Plus/Minus of +13.50 points. For this week, there are two matches for this trend in the field.
The Par 5s
These holes are short-to-average in length, and should be easy scoring opportunities. All four holes featured a scoring average below par each of the past three years, and given the mediocre length, players with a sub-300 yard DD average should still be able to score. As with every Pete Dye golf course, the bunkers are plentiful, and the Par 5s feature massive waste bunkers that will surely come into play for a decent chunk of the field.
Par 5 Scoring Average (2013 to 2015)
Over the past three seasons, players have averaged -5.59 strokes per tournament on the Par 5s. Using that as the value for Recent Par 5 Scoring in the Trends tool, we get the following:
It seems to be a positive indicator of success, with a Plus/Minus of +10.98 points. For this week, there are 11 matches for this trend in the field.
Summary
This week, no players match all three of the course scoring average trends. The Par 4 and 5 scoring trends both are proven to be consistently positive indicators of future success, and should be considered when evaluating players for your lineup.
Try out the PGA DFS Trends tool for yourself and see this week’s matches for course scoring averages!
How to use this breakdown:
The data presented in these articles is meant to be used with the FantasyLabs PGA Trends tool. By plugging in the historical scoring averages, it is possible to find players who match specific course fits. This method is just another part of weekly PGA research that is able to be backtested to see its predictive performance.
To create your own Trends using this data, follow these instructions:
- Visit the PGA Trends tool (active subscription required)
- Click on ‘Create a Fantasy Trend’
- Provide a name for your trend, and then under ‘Course’ select this week’s course (Louisiana)
- Click ‘OK’ to create your trend
- From the filters on the left side, select the ‘Recent Form Filters’, and then find the par 3, 4, and 5 filters
- Input the provided values as desired, and then select ‘Current Matches’ to see this week’s players who fit your Trend
Note: You can create separate trends or combine with multiple values to slim down the matches.
