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The second leg of the Florida swing brings the PGA Tour to Trump Doral, where the players will meet the Blue Monster. Ever since Donald Trump commissioned the redesign a little over 2 years ago, the aura of the Blue Monster has been restored. Possibly one of the most disliked courses on tour based off of past comments from the tour players, this tournament seems to once again exclude a massive majority of the players in the field.
The Designer
Originally designed by Dick Wilson, the Blue Monster underwent a renovation in 2014, lead by designer Gil Hanse. Hanse was responsible for other renovation projects for PGA Tour courses, such as Monterey Peninsula Country Club (Pebble Beach ProAm) and TPC Boston (Deutsche Bank Championship).
The Par 3’s
Much like this past week’s event, Doral boasts some of the tougher Par 3’s on the tour. With only one of the four Par 3’s having a scoring average under par, and the other three having a scoring average that is well over par, this week will once again be a week where Par 3 Birdie or Better percentage should be ignored. With three of the four Par 3’s playing over 200 yards, finding players who can consistently hit the green using their long irons can help determine safe picks for cash-game lineups.
Par 3 Scoring Average
| Hole 4 (227 yards) |
Hole 9 (200 yards) |
Hole 13 (238 yards) |
Hole 15 (153 yards) |
|
| 2015 | 3.20 | 3.33 | 3.18 | 2.94 |
| 2014 | 3.34 | 3.25 | 3.23 | 3.09 |
Compare the above to the PGA Tour Par 3 scoring averages of 3.04 in 2015, and 3.06 in 2014.
Target: Par 3 Scoring Average, 3-Putt Avoidance, Bogey Avoidance
Ignore: Par 3 Birdie or Better
The Par 4’s
The Par 4’s at the Blue Monster are massive. The 476-yard Par 4 18th was the toughest closing hole on the PGA Tour last season. In 2015, only four of the Par 4’s had a scoring average below par and in 2014 only two had a scoring average below par. The 341-yard 16th offers players a good risk/reward opportunity to drive the green and is historically the easiest hole on the golf course. Other than the 16th hole, the next shortest Par 4 is 421 yards, so driving distance is going to be a key stat this week.
Driving accuracy is basically useless considering the past two winners both were sub 50% in that category, and the highest percentage in the past two years for players inside the top five has been 59.5%. Greens in Regulation (GIR), as usual, is important. Looking at the previous two years’ leaderboards, there’s a direct correlation between GIR ranking and finish.
It’s also worth noting that fairway bunkers have been strategically placed, especially on the Par 4’s, opposite of water hazards in the fairway. It’s worth looking at GIR from fairway bunkers.
Par 4 Birdie or Better
| Par 4 Birdie or Better % | |
| 2015 WGC-Cadillac Championship | 15.0% |
| 2016 Tour Average | 16.8% |
Target: Driving Distance, GIR, SG: Tee to Green, Par 4 Birdie or Better
Ignore: Driving Accuracy
The Par 5s
Finally, a week where Par 5 stats could come into play. Let’s face it, the Blue Monster is all about the long-ball hitters. Since the redesign, nobody with a sub-300-yard driving distance average has cracked the top five, and last year the top three all had an average over 320 yards.
2015 Top-Five Finishes, Driving Distance Rank
| Finish | Player | Driving Distance Rank |
| 1 | Dustin Johnson | 1 |
| 2 | J.B. Holmes | 3 |
| 3 | Bubba Watson | 2 |
| T4 | Adam Scott | 8 |
| T4 | Henrik Stenson | 15 |
With two of the four Par 5’s playing over 600 yards, if you don’t have solid distance off the tee then you have basically no chance. For tournament lineups, target players who have a 300+ yard driving distance average. However, there have been multiple players that have finished just outside the top five with a driving distance average that is just below the 300-yard threshold. For cash-game lineups, players with a 290+ yard average could provide a solid return on investment.
Target: Driving Distance, GIR From 200+ Yards, Par 5 Birdie or Better
Ignore: Driving Accuracy
Summary
This is one of the few tournaments on the schedule where driving for show outweighs putting for dough. Players in the top five in the past two years have had a putting average of 1.7 and 1.8 respectively, while those same players also had driving distance averages close to the top in that category. Putting has never been the issue at this course – it’s all about hitting the long ball and getting on the green from long distance.
Pay attention to weather conditions, as shown by the results from two years ago: If the winds kick up, or if the course is playing soft, then breaking par will become a near impossible task for even the best players in the world.
Target: Driving Distance, GIR from 200+ Yards, Par 5 Birdie or Better, Par 4 Birdie or Better, Par 3 Scoring Average, SG: Tee to Green, GIR
Ignore: Driving Accuracy, Par 3 Birdie or Better, Putting Average, SG: Putting
