The Wells Fargo Championship is the last opportunity for players to tune their game leading into The Players Championship. The course itself doesn’t have many defining characteristics, so focusing on recent play leading into this week will be the key. Recent winning scores here have varied from -8 to -21, so it will be tough to predict how many birdies will be available. If the weather cooperates then it’s safe to expect the winning score to be in the double digits.
The Par 3s
Unlike recent weeks, Quail Hollow actually has a Par 3 that is under 180 yards. However, that green is well guarded with bunkers and undulation, so Par 3 GIR will still be important there, as well as scrambling percentage. This course also has a 250-yard Par 3, so GIR over 200 yards is another stat to look at (Par-5-in-two stats will be useful to predict a player’s ability from this distance). For the most part, these are not scoring holes, so like the past few weeks, do not look at these holes as an opportunity for players to set themselves apart from the field.
Par 3 Scoring Averages (2013 to 2015)
Over the past three seasons, players have averaged +2.20 strokes per tournament on the Par 3s. Using that as the value for Recent Par 3 Scoring in the Trends tool, we get the following:
It seems to be a slightly positive indicator of success, with a Plus/Minus of +0.75 points. For this week, the majority of the field were current matches.
The Par 4s
With only two of the 10 Par 4s playing under 400 yards, it will be important for players to capitalize on these holes. Failing to take advantage of the only two sub-400 holes could really hurt a player’s chances, as these are the only two holes that have played to a scoring average below par over the past three years.
The longest Par 4 at Quail Hollow is an absolute bear, maxing out at over 500 yards. This gives an advantage to players with top-end driving distance averages. Keep in mind too that water comes into play on five holes, so players with good driving accuracy and approach shot accuracy should perform well in these spots. The fairways are rather thin, making accuracy off the tee more important, and gives a small bump to players who can still reach the green from the rough at long distances.
Par 4 Scoring Averages (2013 to 2015)
Over the past three seasons, players have averaged +4.72 strokes per tournament on the Par 4s. Using that as the value for Recent Par 4 Scoring in the Trends tool, we get the following:
It seems to be a slightly positive indicator of success, with a Plus/Minus of +0.45 points. For this week, the majority of the field were current matches.
The Par 5s
Only one of the Par 5s at Quail Hollow can be considered easily reachable for all players. However, that hole features a tight fairway with water running down the entire right side and bunkers on the left by the landing area, so accuracy again will be important. Two of the other Par 5s are sharp doglegs, which will require long tee shots and then a long, accurate approach shot in order to be reached in two. It’s not an impossible task, but perhaps it’s a reason why the past two winners have been at the top of the charts in driving distance. It is also worth noting the amount of holes that are shaped from right to left, which will favor those players that move their ball with that form of trajectory.
The fourth Par 5 is straight on, but it’s almost 600 yards, so all the more reason to focus on driving distance this week. While all four holes have played to an average under par each of the last three seasons, it will take the proper tools for players to reach and score on these tough Par 5s.
Par 5 Scoring Averages (2013 to 2015)
Over the past three seasons, players have averaged -4.89 strokes per tournament on the Par 5s. Using that as the value for Recent Par 5 Scoring in the Trends tool, we get the following:
It seems to be a very positive indicator of success, with a Plus/Minus of +7.75 points. For this week, there were 20 players who matched for this trend.
Summary
Plugging in the following parameters into the Trends tool:
Recent Par 3 = +2.20
Recent Par 4 = +4.72
Recent Par 5 = -4.89
We end up with 10 matches for this week’s tournament!
Try out the PGA DFS Trends tool for yourself and see this week’s matches for course scoring averages!
How to use this breakdown:
The data presented in these articles is meant to be used with the FantasyLabs PGA Trends tool. By plugging in the historical scoring averages, it is possible to find players who match specific course fits. This method is just another part of weekly PGA research that is able to be backtested to see its predictive performance.
To create your own Trends using this data, follow these instructions (note: You MUST follow these instructions carefully):
- Visit the PGA Trends tool (active subscription required)
- Click on ‘Create a Fantasy Trend’
- Provide a name for your trend, and then under ‘Course’ select this week’s course (Quail Hollow (North Carolina))
- Click ‘OK’ to create your trend
- From the filters on the left side, select the ‘Recent Form Filters’, and then find the par 3, 4, and 5 filters
- Input the provided values as desired, and then select ‘Current Matches’ to see this week’s players who fit your trend
Note: You can create separate trends or combine with multiple values to slim down the matches.
