This week we have the Valero Texas Open which will bring the tour to the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio — a Par 72 course that measures just over 7,500 yards. The yardage at this course is not spread evenly, as we will see 342-yard Par 4s and 602-yard Par 5’s, per this week’s Course Breakdown.
Before going into the break down for this week, I want to mention that I think PGA DFS is set up in a way where the ability to adjust our Player Models has an increased value. Because each contest is on a different course, and some statistics may be more important this week than they were in weeks past, tweaking your model to adjust for the differences in each week is something that is highly recommended. I change my model each week, albeit not a drastic amount, but I do adjust for what I decide to be important.
This week, I will keep things balanced and not make too many adjustments, although I do believe that I will be weighting Driving Distance a bit more than the field. Onto some course history.
Here are the top-25 finishers from the past five years:
Now, here are the players who have been top-25 finishers at least three times in the past five years:
Let’s look at three groupings based on salary, instead of the four that we have been accustomed to in this article. A high-medium-low price range just works out better. Plus, the kind editors give me the creative freedom to “misspel” things in whichever format I please. Let’s get to it.
Editor’s Note: It’s not that we’re kind. It’s that we’re incompetent.
$11,200 – $9,000
I have to mention Charley Hoffman ($9600). His course history is incredibly solid. He has never finished outside of the top-15 since this tournament moved to TPC San Antonio in 2010. He has made the cut in eight straight tournaments, most recently finishing 33rd at the Houston Open, 29th at The Masters, and 14th at The Heritage. He appears to be coming into form. With his stellar course history and recent form, Hoffman makes for an elite play this week despite seeing his highest DraftKings price tag since November.
I am not too high on many players above $10,000, but I do think there are some players worth exposure. Matt Kuchar ($10,700) is intriguing this week. His missed cut at the Arnold Palmer invitational is his only missed cut this season, and he missed the cut by only one stroke. Kuchar doesn’t excel in one certain statistical category, but he has good Consistency, making him a solid cash play this week. I don’t like paying upwards of $10,000 for a cut maker, but Kuchar still has top-10 Upside and a solid course history, with a T22 in 2013 being his worst finish in his last four appearances at this event.
Bryson DeChambeau ($9,800) has to be mentioned. I will admit that, as a fan, I am falling in love with this guy, but I am still not ready to go with heavy exposure in tournaments. I do not think that a full fade is warranted, but I will be taking an underweight position on him, as I believe that his ownership will outweigh his Upside.
Also, I would be remiss not to mention Phil Mickelson ($9,900), whom I think is underpriced. He missed the cut at Augusta, but prior to that he had been playing well, with top-25 finishes in four of his last five tournaments with two top-5s mixed in. Tied for the sixth-best Long-Term Adjusted Round in this week’s slate, Lefty offers value as a solid tournament option.
$8,900 – $6,500
This is the price range that will get most of my attention this week. I will be taking a more balanced approach, likely rostering one or two players in the 9K range and four players in this range. As the thirteenth-highest-rated player in my model, Ryan Palmer ($8,500) is one of my favorite plays of the week. He has made 10 straight cuts and has a solid course history, making five of six cuts since the Texas Open has been played at TPC San Antonio. He will be receiving heavy exposure from me this weekend. For more of my thoughts on Palmer, see today’s PGA Plays of the Day article.
Jhonattan Vegas ($7100) is deserving of some tournament exposure, given the significant difference between his Recent and Long-Term Adjusted Round Scores. He has been trending upward since missing the cut at the AT&T Pro-Am, finishing 46th in the API, 26th in the Puerto Rico Open, and 19th in the Houston Open. Also, he has seen an increase in all major statistical categories, except for driving accuracy, which I am not placing a heavy emphasis on this week.
Another golfer whose Recent Adjusted Round Score has him on my radar is Will MacKenzie ($6,800). He has missed the cut six times in 15 attempts this season, but he seems to be rounding into form, having made the cut in each of his last six starts. He has been getting it done with his short game, as his recent scrambling percentage has increased from 52.3 percent to 67.8 percent. He has shaved a stroke per round off of his putting. Of course, putting can be streaky, and I don’t like placing weight on an increase in putting statistics when looking for cash game players, but I will be sure to get some tournament exposure to MacKenzie.
This week, Keegan Bradley makes an appearance in my model, which is a bit unsettling. He has only played this tournament once since the course change, and he finished T9. That was in 2011, the same year he won the PGA Championship and before he switched from the belly putter. Keegan is long off the tee and capable of throwing solid rounds together, but I don’t think that this is the week to take a shot on him. Maybe in the future, but for now I’m going to place the Keegan tilt on the shelf.
$6,400 – $5,200
Once again, I am not looking to have much exposure to this price range. However, I am bound to find myself digging through this cohort for a few lineups.
Justin Leonard ($6,400) has made four of six cuts this PGA Tour season. He has some of the best course history of the lower-priced golfers, having made five cuts in his past six appearances at the Texas Open. His boost in recent form could be partly attributed to his recent Putts per Round being a stroke better than his long-term PPR. He is only a tournament play for me this week.
Whee Kim ($6,100) is another interesting option, with one of the better Recent Adjusted Round Scores in this price range. Also, he has managed to make four straight cuts, with a sixth-place finish last week.
As always, I will leave you with a video. This week, I have a slow-motion iPhone video of my swing at a local driving range. I’m kidding, we can save that for a Major.
Instead, I will leave you with Kevin Na walking us all through his terrible hole at the Valero Texas Open. I thought I would resist the urge to share this video, but I just watched it again and I love hearing him explain the thought process of trying to get out of jail on that hole.
Funny story, I was in the woods once and thought I had a nice line out between these two trees. I had a good lie and ended up hitting an iron so pure that I am sure it was my best-struck ball of the day. It hit the tree about 10 yards in front of me and shot backwards, hitting me square in the ribs. I replay that moment in my head almost every time I am remotely close to a tree now.
