This week, the tour heads to TPC San Antonio (Oaks course), which some remember for the 16 that Kevin Na carded on the Par-4 9th hole back in 2011. This course is tough, and rarely do tournament scores reach double digits. Pay extra attention to players who have their A-game going into this week. Recent form becomes more important here than long-term.
The Par 3s
There will be no guaranteed birdies on the Par 3s this week. These holes have played to a similar scoring average each of the last three years, so these holes should not be considered as opportunities for players to gain strokes on the field. The easiest hole is 16, which is also the only Par 3 under 200 yards. Hole 16 is a tough shot over water to a well-guarded green, and players will likely have more than a couple bunker shots this week. While sand save percentage (SSP) is definitely not an indicator of who will win, any player with a poor SSP will warrant a deeper look.
Par 3 Scoring Average (2013 to 2015)
Over the past three seasons, players have averaged +2.73 strokes per tournament on the Par 3s. Using that as the value for Recent Par 3 Scoring in the Trends tool, we get the following:
It seems to be a slightly positive indicator of success, with a Plus/Minus of +0.46 points. For this week, the majority of the field were current matches.
The Par 4s
The only two Par 4s that have had a scoring average below par in the past three years are the holes that are less than 400 yards. The other eight holes are difficult for sure, but last year it seemed that they were more difficult than normal. Perhaps this was caused by last year’s windy conditions. Pay attention to the weather forecast as it could have an effect on the playability of these holes. Bunkers come into play on the majority of them, so players with solid sand games will have an easier time getting up and down if they have a poor GIR.
Par 4 Scoring Average (2013 to 2015)
Over the past three seasons, players have averaged +5.10 strokes per tournament on the Par 4s. Using that as the value for Recent Par 4 Scoring in the Trends tool, we get the following:
It seems to be a slightly positive indicator of success, with a Plus/Minus of +0.50 points. For this week, the majority of the field were current matches.
The Par 5s
These holes present the only true opportunity for scoring. The one downside is the length, with two holes over 600 yards and another that is almost 600 yards. Longer hitters will have an easier time taking advantage of these holes, but shorter hitters with precision and scoring ability (Jordan Spieth in 2015) will also be able to capitalize on scoring opportunities here. Use the FantasyLabs Trends tool to help weed out the shorter hitters that don’t have the history of taking advantage of Par 5s.
Par 5 Scoring Average (2013 to 2015)
Over the past three seasons, players have averaged -1.60 strokes per tournament on the Par 5s. Using that as the value for Recent Par 5 Scoring in the Trends tool, we get the following:
It seems to be a (very) slightly positive indicator of success, with a Plus/Minus of +0.03 points. For this week, the majority of the field were current matches.
Summary
Plugging in the following parameters into the Trends tool:
Recent Par 3 = +2.73
Recent Par 4 = +5.10
Recent Par 5 = -1.60
We end up with a bunch of matches for the combined Trend for this week’s tournament.
Try out the PGA DFS Trends tool for yourself and see this week’s matches for course scoring averages!
How to use this breakdown:
The data presented in these articles each with are meant to be used with the FantasyLabs PGA Trends tool. By plugging in the historical scoring averages, it is possible to find players who match specific course fits. This method is just another part of weekly PGA research that is able to be backtested to see its predictive performance.
To create your own Trends using this data, follow these instructions:
- Visit the PGA Trends tool (active subscription required)
- Click on ‘Create a Fantasy Trend’
- Provide a name for your trend, and then under ‘Course’ select this week’s course (San Antonio (Oaks))
- Click ‘OK’ to create your trend
- From the filters on the left side, select the ‘Recent Form Filters’, and then find the par 3, 4, and 5 filters
- Input the provided values as desired, and then select ‘Current Matches’ to see this week’s players who fit your Trend
Note: You can create separate trends or combine with multiple values to slim down the matches.
