For the third major championship of 2024, the focus of the golf world will turn to the historic course at Pinehurst No. 2 for what shapes up to be a fantastic U.S. Open. The course is very well known and should offer a great venue for the top golfers in the world to compete in the 124th U.S. Open. This is the fourth time this event will be held at this course, with the most recent coming in 2014 when LIV Golf’s Martin Kaymer ran away from Erik Compton and Rickie Fowler to win by eight strokes and claim his second major championship.
Coming into this year’s U.S. Open, World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler has been winning almost everything this season. He already has won five times, including the Masters, THE PLAYERS Championship and three Signature Events, including the Memorial Tournament just last week. Scottie’s the prohibitive favorite, with Rory McIlroy, PGA Championship winner Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau, and Brooks Koepka joining him as the players with salaries of at least $10,000.
At the other end of the salary spectrum, there are plenty of new names in the field who made it through qualifying. Korn Ferry Tour leader Tim Widing is poised to make his U.S. Open debut along with Harry Higgs, who won back-to-back events on the Korn Ferry Tour in May. There are 13 players from LIV Golf set to tee it up this week, and Tiger Woods will also be back in action for the first time since the PGA Championship, where he missed the cut. In total, there are 156 players in the Open, and the top 60 and ties will make it through the cut to play the weekend.
The course the players will face this week is extremely impressive. Pinehurst No. 2 is considered by many to be the best design by famous course designer Donald Ross. It regularly ranks among the best courses in the world and is already slated to host the U.S. Open regularly for the next 25 years.
The degree of difficulty at the par-70 Pinehurst is extremely high. It is famous for its crowned greens and difficult pin positions and has a unique look since it doesn’t have typical rough, instead relying on sandy waste areas with pineweed, wire grass, and other native vegetation to punish players who wander off the fairway. The greens and fairways are sloped and fast, making them very difficult to navigate depending on conditions, which are expected to be especially brutal this week. The tough test should cause the top golfers in the world to rise to the top, but in past events here, there have also been enough surprises like Kaymer and the late Payne Stewart to keep things especially exciting.
The focus of this post is strong GPP options who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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Scottie Scheffler $13,000
Maybe there’s some fatigue or maybe it’s just his elevated salary, but the crowds aren’t backing Scheffler nearly as heavily this week in DFS contests. While there are many other good options, Scheffler’s ownership projection of under 40% seems low given his impressive run of consistent excellence over the past few months.
Not only is Scottie the prohibitive Vegas favorite, but he also has the highest Perfect% in the field by a wide margin. While he was in the perfect lineup in just under 45% of our sims, no other player appeared in over 30%. His lower ownership and high Perfect% gives him the highest SimLeverage in the field. He also has the highest ceiling, median and floor projections by a big enough margin to make him worth paying for.
Scheffler won the Memorial Tournament last week, giving him five victories in his last eight tournaments, and he finished runner-up in two of the three events during that span that he didn’t win. The only event in which he didn’t finish first or second since the beginning of March was the PGA Championship, where he had a few other things going on off the course.
Over the last 30 rounds, Scheffler leads the field in Total Strokes Gained, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Strokes Gained: Approach, and Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. The courses where he has thrived are the most difficult in the regular rotation, and he has shown the toughness to overcome strong fields at iconic venues.
Building around Scheffler will bring your lineup some chalk, but there are plenty of other places to find differentiators rather than passing on a “Free Space” play. Even on the rare occasions he hasn’t won, Scheffler has still been in contention. With his ownership projection lower, he’s an excellent building block this week.
Ludvig Aberg $9,600
Aberg has the third-highest SimLeverage of the players with salaries over $9,000 this week, and people seem to be hesitant to back the young Swede after questions arose last week about his knee. He may be playing through a meniscus tear, but he doesn’t want to talk about it, which only adds fuel to the fire of the rumor mill.
Whatever the issue, his game was back on track last week at the Memorial where he surged to a top five after missing the cut at the PGA Championship and withdrawing before the Wells Fargo Championship. He finished runner-up to Scheffler at the Masters and also finished second at the Signature Event at Pebble Beach behind defending U.S. Open champ Wyndham Clark. Aberg has added top 10s at Torrey Pines, TPC Sawgrass and Harbour Town as well.
Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks second in the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and fifth in Total Strokes Gained. He has the fourth-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections this week behind just Scheffler, Schauffele, and Rory.
His lower ownership projection makes him a good leverage option at this price since he showed last week that he can work through his injury and still be in contention with the top golfers in the world.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Max Homa $8,600
Homa has the highest SimLeverage of the 22 players with salaries over $7,000 and under $9,000. He has the fourth-highest Perfect% in that price range but only the 19th-highest ownership projection.
One of the reasons that public sentiment is against Homa is that he has struggled in his career at majors. However, he has started to turn that narrative around with good results this year. He finished third at the Masters and made the cut at the PGA Championship, finishing T35. Since then, he missed the cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge before bouncing back with a top 25 at the Memorial last week.
Despite his lack of success in past U.S. Opens, Homa’s game should fit this track well. He ranks 12th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 24 rounds and 11th in the field in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green over that same span. That kind of strong iron play should serve him well at Pinehurst No. 2.
Homa has had success on Donald Ross’s designs in the regular PGA TOUR rotation, with top 10s in his last two tournaments at East Lake and top 25s in each of his last three trips to Detroit Golf Club. I’m ready to buy his recent showings on tough tracks over his lack of success in this event, and getting him at such low ownership makes him a great leverage play.
Matt Fitzpatrick $8,200
Fitzpatrick has the second-highest SimLeverage in the same price range behind only Homa, and he has the third-highest median, ceiling, and floor projection in this price range as well.
Unlike Homa, the 29-year-old Englishman does have a great track record at majors and especially the U.S. Open. He won the U.S. Open two years ago at The Country Club outside of Boston and has three other top 20 finishes in his nine career events. He also finished T48 in 2014 at Pinehurst, where he was the low amateur just before turning pro.
He comes into this week’s tournament with some great momentum after posting the best round of the day on Sunday at Jack’s Place and climbing to a T5. It was his second top-five finish of the season and his sixth made cut in his last seven tournaments.
Fitzpatrick has been inconsistent this season as a whole, but he excels in tougher setups like this one, and I love him at this salary and ownership projection this week. His putter and short game looked dialed in on Sunday, and if he can bring that kind of play all week long, he’ll be in contention for his second U.S. Open in the last three years.
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Value PGA DFS Picks
Jason Day $7,400
Day has the third-highest SimLeverage of players with salaries over $7,000 and under $9,000 behind just Homa and Fitzpatrick, and is one of only two players with salaries in the $7,000s with positive SimLeverage at all.
Early in his career, Day was regularly in contention at the U.S. Open, posting five top 10s in his first six U.S. Opens, including a T4 in 2014 at Pinehurst No. 2. Recently, though, he has not been able to produce such good results, missing the cut last year after failing to qualify in 2021 and 2022.
Day brought his career back to life with a big year last year, and he has been solid, though not spectacular, so far this season. He has made the cut in 10 of his last 11 tournaments and posted top 10s at the Genesis Invitational, AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and Wells Fargo Championship. All three of those events were against strong fields on difficult setups, so there are signs he could be set for success this week. He also made the cut in each of the first two majors of the season.
Day ranks in the top 10 in the field in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green this season and is just outside of the top 25 in Total Strokes Gained. With an ownership projection under 7%, he brings good leverage and upside this week since he has proven he can contend on difficult setups where short-game creativity and skill are paramount.
Russell Henley $6,900
Henley is always a good play where approach and short-game skills are at the forefront, and he’s very affordable at just under $7,000 in this stacked field. He has the third-highest median, ceiling, and floor projection of all players with salaries under $8,000, along with the third-highest Perfect% in that price range.
Over the last year, Henley ranks in the top 10 Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and Strokes Gained: Approach. Over his last 24 rounds, he ranks sixth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 11th in Total Strokes Gained.
Henley’s game and style of play have helped him grind out good results in past U.S. Opens, making the cut in 7-of-10 appearances with four top 25s. He finished T60 at Pinehurst 10 years ago but has been even better with top 15s in two of the last three U.S. Opens. While his lack of length of the tee will be a challenge at this venue, his accuracy should help him make up for it and still be a great play at this price and ownership projection.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Erik Van Rooyen $6,300
EVR has the third-highest SimLeverage in the entire field behind Scheffler and bargain sleeper Isaiah Salinda. Van Rooyen’s ownership projection is all the way under 2%, but there are reasons to back the South African to produce good results this week.
Van Rooyen won last fall on the PGA TOUR and started the season strong with six top 25s in his first eight events in 2024. He missed a couple of cuts just before the Masters but did play the weekend at Augusta and also made the cut at the PGA Championship, where he finished T53.
EVR has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight events and 11 of his 15 tournaments this season. He comes into this event ranked in the top 20 on the PGA TOUR in Total Strokes Gained and is typically a solid putter and short-game specialist. Last week, his putter looked off, but if he can flip it this week on this unique course, he could be a great sleeper surprise.
Adam Hadwin $6,200
Hadwin has been a volatile fantasy option with spike weeks throughout the last few seasons, but his upside makes him a good flier play this week, with his salary barely over $6,000. He has four top-six finishes in 15 events this season but has also missed the cut four times.
Over the last 20 rounds, Hadwin ranks in the top 20 in the field in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and in the top 30 in Strokes Gained: Approach. He ranked second in the field last week behind only Scheffler in Strokes Gained: Approach, and if he can continue that hot streak, he should be able to make the weekend and possibly even contend.
He only has one PGA TOUR win in his career but has made the cut at the U.S. Open in six of his eight appearances. He finished in the top 10 two years ago at The Country Club, where he opened with the lead after the first round. He has the kind of “boom-or-bust” ceiling that works well for GPP lineups and brings good value at a low ownership this week.
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