Whether you are throwing 888 entries in a massive GPP or putting three entries in a 70-person qualifier, there is a good chance that the Toronto Blue Jays will be at the top of your list for stacking a team. You can argue advantages and disadvantages for both six-player stacks and four-player stacks, but there is no question that some form of stacking is an integral part of having success in GPPs.
The Blue Jays quite literally help your stacks lead to more stacks – just ask Soulja Boy. They are second in MLB in wOBA, at .334. They are third in MLB in ISO, at .177. There has been an astounding 38 times where a player on the Blue Jays has scored at least 20 points. This is critical when evaluating which team you want to load up on for stacking. The Blue Jays also lead the MLB in runs scored, and it’s really not all that close:
We know the Blue Jays are more than capable of filling up the scoreboard, but we need to pinpoint exactly when it is optimal to stack them. By using Vegas Runs, we can look for specific criteria that shows when the Blue Jays are supposed to score a significant amount of runs. Let’s go to our Trends Model and set the team to the Blue Jays. From there, we can set the Vegas Runs at a minimum of 4.6 projected runs and examine the data:
When the Blue Jays are projected at 4.6 runs or more, the players on average score 1.93 points above their expected amount of points. This is important in knowing when you should have heavy exposure to the Blue Jays – clearly they score more when they have a high run total. The other night, the Blue Jays had a run total of 5.1 – their highest total of the season. They responded by scoring 10 runs and had a major impact on teams that cashed heavy in GPPs. In fact, The Blue Jays score 6.6 runs per game on average when they are projected at scoring 4.6 runs or more.
On DraftKings, you are allowed to stack six players. I remember back in the day when you could stack the first eight guys, plus the equipment manager, ball boy, and mascot. Now, you would think that most successful stacks include the first six hitters. This is because you want to maximize at bats and string together scoring opportunities. Let’s go back to our Trends Model and check out the production from each lineup spot:
The leadoff hitter immediately stands out with only 5.71 points per game. The two-hole is by far the highest – mainly due to Josh Donaldson frequenting that spot in the order and having an excellent year so far. If you go with a mini-stack on DK, this data shows that you most likely want to choose the second through fifth hitters. What is very surprising is how well the eight-hole hitter has performed – 9.43 points on average, which is the third most. Of course, taking the eight-hole is risky because of limited at-bats. However, when stacking a team that you know others will likely be stacking (due to a high run total), you can gain an advantage by having a very low-owned player who has repeatedly performed well under your specific trends.
By using our tools and analyzing the data, you can narrow down when you want to have exposure to the Blue Jays. If you are committed to putting 50+ stacks in a GPP and the Blue Jays have a run total of 4.9, it is most likely a good idea to heavily invest in the second through fifth hitters as well as some later hitters on a few teams. Even if you are only putting a few stacks in a night and you see a high run total for the Blue Jays, it is important to strongly consider them as your primary stack as they consistently outperform their projected runs and projected fantasy points.
