The NHL Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Skaters
Studs
Four teams are implied to score 3.2 or more goals, so there are plenty of high-end options to choose from:
Center
- Sidney Crosby vs. NY Rangers: DraftKings – $7,900, FanDuel – $9,300
- Steven Stamkos vs. NY Islanders: DraftKings – $7,800, FanDuel – $8,500
- Tyler Seguin vs. Nashville: DraftKings – $7,700, FanDuel – $8,500
- John Tavares @ Tampa Bay: DraftKings – $7,600, FanDuel – $8,200
- Mark Scheifele @ Detroit: DraftKings – $7,500, FanDuel – $8,100
Winger
- Nikita Kucherov vs. NY Islanders: DraftKings – $7,700, FanDuel – $8,600
- Vladimir Tarasenko @ Montreal: DraftKings – $7,600, FanDuel – $8,100
- Blake Wheeler @ Detroit: DraftKings – $7,300, FanDuel – $7,700
- Phil Kessel vs. NY Rangers: DraftKings – $7,200, FanDuel – $7,800
Defense
- Roman Josi @ Dallas: DraftKings – $6,600, FanDuel – $5,900
- Alex Pietrangelo @ Montreal: DraftKings – $6,200, FanDuel – $5,500
- Nick Leddy @ Tampa Bay: DraftKings – $6,100, FanDuel – $5,600
- Kris Letang vs. NY Rangers: DraftKings – $6,000, FanDuel – $6,500
Stamkos and Kucherov have a dazzling 0.71 correlation coefficient in our Models, but that’s trending in the other direction now that they no longer skate together at even strength. Over the past month, both have solid peripheral stats (in the 93rd percentile in shots), but they have combined for only three goals over the past seven games. They still carry immense upside together on the power play – the Lightning’s 27.8 percent conversion rate leads the league — and Stamkos and Kucherov have combined for 48.1 percent of the team’s goals on the man advantage. The Lightning own the slate’s top matchup rating against an Islanders team that has the fourth-worst penalty kill in the NHL.
Pittsburgh’s 3.3 implied total trails only Tampa Bay (3.5) today, but the Penguins have won four of their past five games, and Crosby is on an absolute tear with 12 points (six goals and six assists) over that same time period. Crosby has averaged 4.51 DraftKings PPG over his past 15 games with a 53.3 percent Consistency Rating. He draws a Rangers team that has the second-highest Corsi-Against over the past month.
Defense may be the position to pay down at today, with a ton of value available and no expensive player on the back end with truly elite peripheral stats across the board:
These skaters make more sense in stacks, but it’s probably not optimal to going out of your way to lock them in for cash games when a similar floor can be achieved elsewhere for cheaper. Each player has wrinkles, but here are a few noteworthy takeaways:
- Leddy: The matchup couldn’t be much worse against a Lightning team that has allowed the fourth-fewest goals and second-lowest Corsi-Against this year.
- Josi: He is still seeing a ton of ice time and has solid peripheral stats, but he has recently been relegated to the second power-play unit which limits his ceiling.
- Pietrangelo: He hasn’t registered a point in five straight games and the Blues own the fifth-lowest goal expectation on the slate.
- Letang: His middling peripheral stats limit his value unless he gets on the scoresheet. His correlation coefficient with Kessel (0.14), Crosby (0.09), Malkin (-0.04), and Hornqvist (-0.06) on the first power play unit is thin.
Values
Tyler Johnson (DraftKings – $3,800, FanDuel – $4,100): If you can’t spend big for the Stamkos-Kucherov stack today, Johnson should offer solid correlation with a nice peripheral stat floor. He has registered 12 shots+blocks and two goals over his past two games. His $3,800 price tag on DraftKings is egregiously low given that he’s slated to play on the Lightning’s top line with Stamkos and Namestnikov today.
Note: DraftKings has changed Johnson’s position eligibility from center to wing.
Esa Lindell (DraftKings – $3,700, FanDuel – $3,900): With the third-highest implied total on the slate (3.3), Dallas could be a rich repository of untapped value given the popularity of Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh. Lindell appears to be underpriced relative to his recent peripheral stats (94th percentile shots + blocks) and his role on the second power-play unit.
Rasmus Ristolainen (DraftKings – $4,600, FanDuel – $4,600): He has a strong track record of elite peripheral stats (96th percentile in shots + blocks) over the past year and his 6.6 shots + blocks per game over the past month leads the slate. Buffalo has the lowest Corsi-For expectation of any team today, so his ceiling is likely limited, but his high floor could still be appealing in cash games.
Charles Hudon (DraftKings – $3,700, FanDuel – $3,600): Of forwards priced below $4,000 on both DraftKings & FanDuel, Hudon trails only Patrik Berglund (98th percentile) with his 90th percentile shots + blocks over the past month. J.T. Compher is also interesting in this range, ranking in the 81st percentile in blocks, but he lacks the shooting upside of both Hudon and Berglund.
Notable Stacks
One of our highest-rated four-man DraftKings stacks currently belongs to the Pittsburgh Penguins:
There are some correlation concerns at even strength, but the Penguins should do enough of their damage on the power play in this game for the PP1 stack to be firmly in play as they have drawn the fourth-most power play opportunities in the league. Pittsburgh owns the second-highest goal expectation on the slate, and will likely see elevated ownership, but this stack allows differentiation through an alternative lineup construction by pivoting away from Letang.
Wingers block far fewer shots than defensemen and centermen. That’s part of what makes players like Hornqvist (84th percentile among skaters in blocks over the past month) an incredibly valuable way to gain cheap exposure to the studs on Pittsburgh. He leads all power play forwards today with 1.42 blocks per game over the past month and has a 97 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
With lineup construction clearly favoring a stars-and-scrubs approach tonight, finding a cheaper stack in tournaments could mean all the difference. The Hurricanes are very affordable, and they rank as one of our top non-Penguins or Lightning stacks:
Since ownership tends to mirror Vegas lines, the Hurricanes may be slightly less owned just outside the top tier implied for 2.9 goals. But Carolina is in the perfect spot to pile up peripheral stats against a Canucks team that has the fourth-highest Corsi-Against. Unsurprisingly, the Hurricanes have the highest Corsi-For expectation of any team, as their offense revolves more around shot volume than shot quality. Faulk stands out with 94th percentile shots + blocks stat line over the past month, and both Teravainen and Lindholm provide a high ceiling in the 94th percentile in power-play goals over that same period.
The formerly mentioned Lightning rate highly on both sites, but it’s way easier to jam in a Tampa Bay stack on FanDuel:
We don’t need to spend too much more time on why Stamkos and Kucherov are elite plays, but Namestnikov is firmly in play for a lot of the same reasons as Hornqvist but is a much stronger value on FanDuel with a 91 percent Bargain Rating. Not only is Namestnikov in the 91st percentile in shots + blocks over the past month, but he’s also in the 62nd percentile in blocks.
Hedman is the highest-rated FanDuel skater in the psufans2 Pro Model. He leads the team with 4.18 shots + blocks per game over the past month.
Goalies
Wins are weighted significantly in both DraftKings & FanDuel scoring, which is why ownership tends to mirror Vegas moneylines:
- Columbus -185 vs. New Jersey
- Tampa Bay -176 vs. NY Islanders
- Pittsburgh -1162 vs. NY Rangers
If you’re looking to drill deeper into favorable possibilities, it could be wise to check out our new save prediction metric. It takes into account a multitude of things, such as: the opposing team’s average shots; the team’s average shots allowed; and the player’s goals against average. Here are today’s top-three options, all of whom have already been confirmed or are expected as starters:
- Jacob Markstrom, Vancouver vs. Carolina (DraftKings – $7,600, FanDuel – $7,500): 33.58 saves
- Carey Price, Montreal vs. St. Louis (DraftKings – $7,800, FanDuel – $9,000): 33.32 saves
- Henrik Lundqvist, NY Rangers @ Pittsburgh (DraftKings – $7,600, FanDuel – $8,600): 32.82 saves
It’s a tough slate for goaltender, as none of the large favorites also garner a top save prediction. Lundqvist could offer immense leverage if Pittsburgh underperforms. Goalies tend to be low-owned as road underdogs, but it’s tough to see Hank as anything more than a contrarian tournament option.
On the other side of that game, Tristan Jarry will start for the Penguins, and as the third-largest moneyline favorite, he could provide the strongest combination of positive indicators in this price range. Pittsburgh has the fourth-highest Corsi-Against on the slate. Goalies as a home favorite with comparable save predictions have historically provided a 54.2 percent Consistency Rating at 11.1 percent ownership on DraftKings.
With the second-highest save prediction on the slate, Price is intriguing, especially on DraftKings where he has an 87 percent Bargain Rating. But he’s still expensive for a slate we want to jam in stud skaters.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
