The PGA TOUR begins the new year and a brand new season with a great tournament in Hawaii in this year’s version of The Sentry. The pros tee off on Thursday, January 2, so be sure to get your lineups locked and ready to roll for what should be a great two-week stop for the PGA TOUR in the Aloha State.
While Scottie Scheffler is sidelined after hand surgery, an elite field is still in play this week, providing an exciting chance to jump back into fantasy golf to start the year. Like last year, The Sentry is a no-cut Signature Event to begin the season. For more info on the field, the course, the weather, and some key stats check out this First Look from RotoGrinders.
The focus of this post is strong GPP options who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Note: FantasyLabs has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole! Sign up for the biggest database of golf stats available on the internet and get 25% off a yearly sub with our link!
Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
Tool Highlights
- Build unlimited custom stat models with official PGA TOUR data.
- Hundreds of filters to find the exact data split you’re looking for.
- Save custom reports and run them again with next week’s field.
- Download anything you right to your computer with the click of a button.
- See expert models each week.
Collin Morikawa $10,100
In this kind of limited-field event, ownership of the top options in the field is extremely concentrated, so the best place to differentiate your lineup is further down the salary structure. Of the three players priced over $10,000, Morikawa offers some very strong upside to consider and has just the fourth-highest projected ownership percentage. He has the third-highest Perfect% in the field and the highest SimLeverage of the seven options over $9,500.
Morikawa had an outstanding 2024 but did not win a tournament. His only win since his last major at The Open Championship back in 2021 came at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP in 2023. Even though he didn’t hoist any trophies, he regularly was near the top of the leaderboard. He finished with eight top 10s in 22 events and a pair of runner-up finishes. He was second at the TOUR Championship behind Scheffler but only managed a T54 in his title defense at the ZOZO.
Over the last six months, Morikawa ranks third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, and over the last year, he ranks second in Total Strokes Gained and third in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. What holds Morikawa back sometimes is his putting, so if he can get his flat stick going he should get back into the winner’s circle this year.
Morikawa’s game has translated to success in his past visits to the Plantation Course at Kapalua. He finished in the top seven in each of his five career appearances and posted top-five finishes in each of the last three years, including a runner-up finish to Jon Rahm in 2023.
Since there isn’t much “recent” in many of these players “recent form,” I’d rather go with Morikawa’s consistent excellence over the last year. He’s way overdue for a few wins, and I expect a big year from the 27-year-old this year, starting with a strong showing in Maui.
Sungjae Im $9,500
Im is another proven winner on the PGA TOUR who is looking to get back into the win column on the PGA TOUR in 2024. He has the fifth-highest Perfect% in the field and the fifth-highest ceiling projection but only the eighth-highest salary.
Im hasn’t won on the PGA TOUR since 2021, although he has won twice on the Korean Tour since then. Im posted eight top 10s last season in his 26 events and finished the season on a very nice run with eight top 15s in his last 10 events, including the unofficial Hero World Challenge a few weeks ago, where he finished T9.
The 26-year-old from South Korea ranks fourth in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and fifth in Total Strokes Gained over that span.
Like Morikawa, he has a great course history in Maui, having posted three top tens in the last four years, including a pair of top fives, including last season. Last year at this event, Im set a record for most birdies in a 72-hole PGA TOUR event on record, making 34 birdies across four rounds at Kapalua. He’ll look to put on another birdie barrage this year and turn it into a win.
Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Akshay Bhatia $8,900
Bhatia typically does well in tropical environments and low-scoring conditions, so Maui should be a great spot for the youngster to continue his emergence as a top option on the PGA TOUR. Bhatia finished T14 in his debut at the event last season and then went on to have an impressive 2024, including a win at the 2024 Valero Texas Open as one of his three top 10s.
Over the last 12 months, he racked up 12 top 25s in 26 events on the season. He also has more recent form than many other players, finding lots of success over the last month. Bhatia posted a fourth-place finish at the Hero World Challenge and a T3 at the Grant Thornton Invitation in Unofficial Events. He also finished tied for second in the Dunlop Phoenix on the Japan Golf Tour back in October.
Bhatia’s ownership projection is lower than any other golfer with a salary of at least $8,300, so he brings great leverage to go with his boom-or-bust upside. Bhatia has a high ceiling since he has proven he can contend in elite fields and the situation sets up perfectly to play to his skillset and hot recent form.
Max Greyserman $8,000
Greyserman has the fourth-highest SimLeverage in the field this week and a higher SimLeverage than any other golfer over $7,200. He has the highest ceiling projection of all golfers under $9,500, which is very unusual for a golfer to rank higher in projections than so many players with higher salaries.
In the second half of 2024, Greyserman went on an incredible tear. He exceeded salary-based expectations in 11 straight tournaments dating back to the U.S. Open. The 29-year-old from Duke finished runner-up at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, the 3M Open, and the Wyndham Championship during that run and added another top-five at the World Wide Technology Championship in his most recent official event. He also played in the Grant Thornton Invitational and finished T7.
Greyserman leads the entire field in Total Strokes Gained over the last 30 rounds and has shown off the ability to go low and pile up birdies in a hurry. He is one of the longest drivers on the PGA TOUR and also leads the field in Strokes Gained: Putting over his last 30 rounds.
His impressive combination of driving and putting gives him plenty of chances to make birdies and eagles, which will be needed in droves to contend this week. He’ll look to keep his short game and his pitting in great form as he opens 2025 with his debut at the Plantation Course.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1.
Value PGA DFS Picks
J.T. Poston $7,600
Poston matches five Pro Trends this week, the second-most of any player under $8,000 and sixth-most in the field. His ownership projection is under 10%, but his Perfect% of 11% gives him a nice SimLeverage, especially compared to the other options in this price range.
Last season, Poston joined Morikawa, Im, and Scheffler at T5 in Maui, which is his best career finish in three appearances at the event. The 31-year-old went on to put together a strong 2024, finishing 41st in FedExCup points with six top 10s throughout the season. He capped his year with a win at the Shriners Children’s Open in October and also finished in the top five at The RSM Classic in the season finale.
Poston had a little bit of a dry stretch in the summer, but his strong Fall showings actually give him the most Strokes Gained: Approach and most Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in the entire field over his last eight rounds.
Throughout his career, Poston has finished high on the leaderboard in low-scoring tournaments like this one is expected to be, so the layout should fit his game if he can continue his recent form.
Nick Dunlap $7,200
In no-cut formats like The Sentry, it’s less penalizing to swing for the fences since all players will get four rounds, barring injury or withdrawal. One player who stands out in this price range as a high-risk, high-reward option to consider is Nick Dunlap, who has the second-highest SimLeverage in the entire field and the highest of all players over $7,000.
Dunlap took the golf world by storm in 2024 by winning The American Express as an amateur. He showed that victory was no fluke, though, by going on to post three other top 10s, including a second PGA Tour win at the Barracuda Championship.
While he’ll be making his debut at this event, the 21-year-old has the skillset needed to tame Kapalua. He ranked 40th in driving distance on the PGA TOUR and 16th in birdie average last season.
Of players under $8,000 Dunlap has the fourth-highest Perfect% at just under 15%. With his ownership projection under 9%, he’s worth a look as a way to differentiate your lineup while still getting a very high ceiling. If things go his way, the youngster could be near the top of the leaderboard this week, although he does come with more risk than some of the other options in this price range.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Harry Hall $6,800
Hall had a very strong second half of 2024 and has exceeded salary-based expectations in 11 of his last 12 events on the PGA TOUR and the DP World Tour. In July, he won the ISCO Championship (the alternate event to The Open Championship), and he’ll make his Kapalua debut this week as a result.
Over the last 30 rounds, he ranks third in the field in Total Strokes Gained and leads the field in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green. He’s used that impressive short game to post six top-25 finishes over his last nine starts, including a top 10 at the Shriners Children’s Open behind Poston.
Hall has the highest ceiling projection of all the players under $7,500 and should perform well in his debut at Kapalua. He has performed well on a wide variety of courses around the world including a pair of top 20s in his native England and top 15s in Japan and Mexico in his two most recent events in the FedExCup Fall.
Hall ranked third on the PGA TOUR in Birdie or Better% in 2024, so look for him to get off to a hot start in 2025 as a sleeper play at this salary.
Matt McCarty $6,400
Since he comes so cheaply, McCarty has the highest Perfect% of all players under $9,000 and the third-highest in the field. He feels a little like a punt play since he allows you to squeeze so much more salary into your other roster spots, but the rising star has shown enough over the past few months to bring a high ceiling of his own.
If you haven’t paid attention to the PGA TOUR since the TOUR Championship, you probably don’t recognize McCarty’s name since he wasn’t on the radar at that point. His meteoric rise to prominence began this summer on the Korn Ferry Tour, where he won the Albertsons Boise Open, the Pinnacle Bank Championship, and the Price Cutter Charity Championship in the span of just over a month with a runner-up finish at the Utah Championship mixed in for good measure. He was back in Utah for one of the four events he played in the FedExCup Fall and claimed his first PGA TOUR career win at the inaugural Black Desert Championship.
McCarty led the Korn Ferry Tour in scoring average and putting average, so he has the ability to go low and post good scores in favorable conditions.
He has the highest SimLeverage in the field since his ownership projection is under 5%, so take a flier on him this week to keep things going in Hawaii. His low salary definitely helps open more possibilities at the top of your roster.
