This week is the final official PGA TOUR event of the 2023 season, as the new format of the FedExCup Fall comes to a close at the RSM Classic at St. Simons Island, Georgia. Over the past several years, this event has been the final official event of the calendar year, but it hasn’t been the end of the season due to the wraparound schedule. This year, the PGA TOUR season ends with the calendar year before a new season gets underway in January. There are a few unofficial events in December, but this is the last official tournament to earn FedExCup points for this season.
After the event, the top 125 on the FedExCup Fall standings secure 2024 PGA TOUR exempt membership earning spots in each full-field event plus THE PLAYERS Championship. In another race to watch, the players who finish in spots Nos. 51-60 in the standings will get into two Signature Events in 2024 – The Genesis Invitational and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am – via “The Next 10.” Players who just miss the top 125 still have the chance to go into the Final Stage of the PGA TOUR Q School in December and earn their PGA TOUR card that way.
In addition to those two races happening within the tournament, this week’s is a typical full-field tournament. The field of 156 will each play one round on the Seaside Course and one round on the Plantation Course at Sea Island Resort before the 36-hole cut that reduces the field to the top 65 and ties. After that, the final two rounds will be played on the Seaside Course.
Sea Island is a popular place for many of the PGA TOUR pros and usually draws a pretty good field, at least compared to the rest of the Fall events. This week’s field includes 10 players in the top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings, led by Brian Harman, Cameron Young, and Russell Henley, who are each in the top 25. Adam Svensson will be trying to be the first player to ever successfully defend his title at this event. Last year, he bested Harman, Sahith Theegala (not in this year’s field), and Callum Tarren by two shots. The 29-year-old Canadian hasn’t finished in the top five since, but he also has made the cut in 10 straight tournaments.
Ludvig Aberg is also one of the headliners in this week’s field as he looks to continue his impressive recent run. Camilo Villegas is scheduled to be in the field this week after winning last week’s Butterfield Bermuda Championship to snap a nine-year drought. Alex Noren came up just short last week in Bermuda and will be back in the field this week, along with Matti Schmid and Carl Yuan, who also finished in the top five.
This weekly GPP post focuses on players with lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success. The picks here are designed to go against the grain and take advantage of players who may be overlooked or not selected due to risk factors.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk if it raises the lineup’s ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that usually lead to large-field success.
GPP contests are contests that have large numbers of entries and pay out huge prizes to the top few percent. Since this week is a major, the largest GPP on DraftKings is the $300K Sand Trap, which awards $100K to first place.
The players highlighted will be good options if they deliver in all formats, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being the safest plays. Safety and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important. To find specific guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be highly volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
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High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Ludvig Aberg $10,900
Because of the way this week’s salaries break down, the players at the top of the salary structure are projected to draw heavy ownership. The top five golfers all have projected ownership of over 25%, and Aberg leads the way with a projected ownership of over 40%. In situations like this, though, there isn’t a ton of leverage to be gained by pivoting to another play that is also highly owned. Instead, it makes sense to eat the chalk and go with the best player and then differentiate your lineup in other spots. There are plenty of other spots in this week’s tournament to get leverage, so go with the player from this top group that you think has the best chance to hoist the trophy.
According to Vegas, Aberg has the best chance to emerge victorious with the best odds to win and finish in the top 10. Our Pro Trends agree, since Aberg matches 11 Pro Trends this week, and no other golfer in the field matches more than eight. Not surprisingly, Aberg is also the player who is in the most optimal lineups in our sims, with a slate-leading 29% Perfect%. He has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projection in the field.
The 24-year-old Swede is searching for his first PGA TOUR victory, but he comes into this event on an incredible run of form. Dating back to a T14 at the Wyndham Championship, he has finished in the top 15 in each of his last seven worldwide starts and also played well on the winning European Ryder Cup team. He also won the Omega European Masters on the DP World Tour during that stretch.
Aberg isn’t even 25 yet, but it already seems like he’s way overdue for a breakthrough win, given how well he has been playing lately. While he isn’t a great value and doesn’t bring much leverage, he’s so clearly the top player in the field that he’s worth paying up for and going with the flow for this pick. You will want to make sure your Aberg lineups for GPP have other players to differentiate them, but there’s no need to pass up this “free space” play just to be different for the sake of being different.
Alex Noren $9,400
One quick way to differentiate your lineup is by going with Aberg’s fellow Swede Alex Noren, who only has a 4% projected ownership, the lowest of any player priced over $8,500. Noren has the second-highest SimLeverage in the field due to his low ownership projection and good Perfect%.
Last week, Noren started with a -10 in Round 1 of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship and held the lead at the end of each of the first three rounds. The veteran was caught from behind on Sunday but still finished alone in second place. It was the 41-year-old’s third runner-up finish on the PGA TOUR, but he’s still in search of his first PGA TOUR win, although he has won 10 times on the DP World Tour.
This fall, Noren has made four straight cuts and also finished in the top five at the Shriners Children’s Open last month. At this event, Noren had two made cuts with top-20 finishes in his three trips to the event, although he did not tee it up last season. This year he’s playing to try and climb into that “Next 10” and qualify for the first two Signature Events. He moved from 86th to 64th last week and just needs to pass a few more players to get those two coveted invites.
Noren has been notorious throughout his career as a streaky golfer, and if he can stay hot this week, he could follow Villegas’s pattern of chasing a runner-up finish with a win the next week. While I doubt his ownership will actually end up quite as low as these projections, it appears he’s being overlooked and brings a great chance to grab some leverage alongside Aberg or whichever pay-up play you are building around. If you opt to pass on all the top names, Noren can be the high point of a very balanced lineup as well.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Brendon Todd $8,500
With so much ownership at the very top of the salary structure, the projected ownership in the $8,000’s is actually relatively low. Todd comes in at under 4% projected ownership. Todd brings the fourth-most SimLeverage in the field since he has a 10.5% Perfect% in our sims.
Todd is coming off a T20 last week, which was his eighth straight made cut on the PGA TOUR, dating back to the Rocket Mortgage Classic in July. He finished in the top 10 three times during that run, including a runner-up finish at the John Deere Classic. Todd has seven top 10s this season and is already locked into his spot on the PGA TOUR and in the first two Signature Events after finishing 47th in the FedExCup standings going into the playoffs.
Since he’s a former Georgia Bulldog, and this is basically a home game for him, he is still teeing it up this week and should be poised for another strong finish. He has missed the cut in each of the past two seasons on this track but did post a top-five back in 2019 and has made the cut in four of seven career appearances.
He has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his past 10 tournaments and has tuned up his approach game to match his accurate driving and strong putting. He usually excels on shorter tracks like this one that demand accuracy, and he also has posted his best results on Bermuda putting surfaces like the familiar ones he’ll face this week. He’s a great play at this price and this ownership projection this week.
Akshay Bhatia $8,100
Bhatia is one of my personal favorites, and there’s no way I’d pass him up at this salary when he also brings the best SimLeverage in the field. He is in the eighth-most optimal lineups in the field according to his 14.5% Perfect% but is still projected for under 5% ownership.
He has the 13th-best median and ceiling projections and the ninth-highest floor projection in the field. Getting him at his salary as the 19th-most expensive option would already make him a good play, even if everyone else was targeting him. With so many people looking elsewhere, Bhatia becomes an even better option for GPP lineups.
The 21-year-old lefty had his breakthrough win on the PGA TOUR in July at the Barracuda Championship. He missed the cut in his next two events but has built a strong Fall schedule, including top-21 finishes at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, the World Wide Technology Championship, and the Butterfield Bermuda Championship in his three most recent tournaments. Aside from that pair of missed cuts after his win, Bhatia has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his past eight tournaments and comes with a very high ceiling since he has shown he can contend on resort-style courses and go low in a hurry.
Bhatia played this event in 2019 at just 17 years old and missed the cut, but he made the cut last year and finished T45. He should be set up to improve on that showing this year, and the youngster has shown he has the making of a potential future superstar.
Value PGA DFS Picks
Alex Smalley $8,000
In this price range, Chris Kirk is a sentimental pick after receiving the PGA TOUR Courage Award, and he’s also a former winner at this track, so there’s definitely plenty of upside to like in that pick. However, I can’t get past Alex Smalley at just $8K with a much more consistent recent track record and an ownership projection under 5%.
Smalley is coming off a T30 in Bermuda, where he fired four straight rounds in the 60s. He capped the week with a 65 on Sunday, which was his best round of the week. It was his third straight made cut in the FedExCup Fall and moved him to No. 58 in the FedExCup Fall Standings, meaning he’s in the Next 10 coming into this week.
Last year at this event, Smalley finished tied for fifth in one of his four top-five finishes this season. This week’s layout is similar to last week’s and one that he has shown he can have success on. He doesn’t blast it off the tee, but his precision pays off on tighter tracks like this one, so look for another good week from Smalley.
He has the sixth-highest SimLeverage in the field and is in the top 15 with his ceiling, median, and floor projections.
Vince Whaley $7,200
Whaley would need to do something immensely special to get into the top 125 this week, but he starts the week at 160 and can play his way into the top 150 with a good week, which would earn him provisional status and a chance at the final stage of Q School. As his place in the standings indicates, he didn’t have a great season, but he is finishing with a flourish and comes into this week on a hot streak.
After finishing outside the top 60 in seven of his first eight tournaments this season and missing four cuts, Whaley turned things around this fall. He started with a T25 at the Fortinet Championship and made the cut in five straight events. After a T13 at the Shriners Children’s Open, he posted his best finish of the season last week with a T8 in Bermuda. That was Whaley’s fifth career top 10 on the PGA TOUR, but his first since July of 2022 at the Barbasol Championship.
During his recent strong stretch, Whaley has exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight tournaments with an Average Plus/Minus of 35 DraftKings points per week. Despite his recent success, he’s still projected for just 2% ownership and brings one of the strongest SimLeverage for players under $7,400.
Whaley’s putter has been carrying him on his recent run, and he ranked in the top 10 for putting last week. If he can keep the flat stick rolling, he should be a good leverage play to outperform his very affordable salary this week. He has made the cut in each of his two previous career appearances at Sea Island and should be comfortable at the venue since he played his college golf at Georgia Tech.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Dylan Wu $7,000
Exactly 100 of the golfers in this week’s field have a salary of $7K or under, and of those 100 players, Wu ranks in the top three in terms of ceiling, median, and floor projections. He’s also tied for second in Pts/Sal of those players and is in the top 20 in both Leverage and SimLeverage since his ownership is projected to be under 2%.
Wu made the cut in Bermuda last week and finished T30 after a disappointing 72 on Sunday. He has been boom-or-bust this season with 11 missed cuts and eight top 25s. His best finish of the year came at the 3M Open, where he posted a T5, and he added another top 25 this fall at the Fortinet Championship. With a stronger finish last week, Wu could have easily added another top 25 or even a top 10 if he hadn’t stumbled.
This week, he’ll be looking to lock up his PGA TOUR card for next year and is in good shape, sitting at No. 90 in the standings coming into the week. He has made the cut in each of the last two years at this track and will look to finish the year with another strong finish.
Carson Young $6,900
After making the PGA TOUR this year from the Korn Ferry Tour last season, Young is in a good spot to keep his card since he starts the week at No. 101 in the FedExCup Fall standings. He has been a boom-or-bust fantasy play this season, and as a result, he has been a recurring value play for my GPP picks.
Young posted his second top 10 of the season in his most recent start, finishing ninth two weeks ago at the World Wide Technology Championship. He also added a top-20 finish at the Fortinet Championship earlier this fall but also missed the cuts at the Sanderson Farms Championship and the Shriners Children’s Open.
He has proven he can go low and contend, which gives him a very high ceiling and makes him worth the risk of a missed cut. Especially in a field with so many cheap options, Young should be able to make the weekend and give you solid leverage while saving significant salary. As usual, with players under $7K, he comes with plenty of risk, but if you’re going this cheap, Young’s upside makes him worth consideration.
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