After an amazing week at Augusta National, the PGA TOUR goes right into another Signature Event with the best players in the world headed to Hilton Head, South Carolina to take on Harbour Town Golf Links. It sets up to be another great week of fantasy golf with an elite field and a great course.
The field size is a bit smaller this week with 69 players scheduled to tee it up in this no-cut event. Masters champion Scottie Scheffler is planning to play (as long as his wife doesn’t go into labor), and Sam Burns is in a similar situation with his wife due any day. Ludvig Aberg, Collin Morikawa, Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele are all in the field as well, looking to build on their big week at the Masters. Defending champion Matt Fitzpatrick returns to Harbour Town, where he won last year in a playoff over Jordan Spieth, who won a playoff to claim the title in 2022.
The course has hosted this event every year since it began in 1969. Harbour Town Golf Links is one of the best-known and highest-rated courses in the U.S. and is characterized by narrow fairways, overhanging oaks, pines, palmettos, and dark lagoons. The track is much tighter and demands more accuracy off the tee than Augusta National, and generally, finesse and shot-making are prioritized over length and power. The smaller-than-average greens reward Strokes Gained: Approach.
In this post each week, we focus on players who are strong GPP options. That means they have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding this kind of high-leverage play is critical for success in GPPs. The picks here go against the grain to take advantage of players who may be overlooked and under-owned.
In this post, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be highly volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk if it raises the lineup’s ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that can lead to large-field success.
This week, the biggest GPP on DraftKings is the $1M Summer Sand Trap which awards $200,000 to the first-place winner.
The players highlighted below will be good options in all formats if they deliver, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being safe plays. Consistency and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t as important as in GPP tournaments. To find specific guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Note: FantasyLabs has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole! Sign up for the biggest database of golf stats available on the internet and get 25% off a yearly sub with our link!
Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
Tool Highlights
- Build unlimited custom stat models with official PGA TOUR data.
- Hundreds of filters to find the exact data split you’re looking for.
- Save custom reports and run them again with next week’s field.
- Download anything you right to your computer with the click of a button.
- See expert models each week.
Scottie Scheffler $13,300
Scheffler has established himself as the man to beat in any big tournament, coming off his second major championship last week. He has already won three big tournaments in 2024, winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational, THE PLAYERS, and the Masters, each for the second time in his career. Even when he isn’t winning, he always seems to be in contention. He finished in the top 10 at three of the four majors last year, and he finished in the top 10 in eight of his nine tournaments in 2024.
This week though, there’s a huge added risk in rolling with Scheffler. Not only is he extremely expensive, but there’s a real chance he’ll leave the event early. Scheffler’s wife is expecting their first child, and he said he would withdraw from the Masters if she went into labor. Barring withdrawal or disqualification, all players will get in four rounds, so if Scheffler bows out, he’ll leave your lineup sunk.
There’s no doubt that Scheffler has the game for this track. He finished T11 last year in his first event at Harbour Town and leads the field in almost every metric on The Rabbit Hole. Over the last 36 rounds, he leads the field in Total Strokes Gained, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and the all-important Strokes Gained: Approach.
Will the risk be worth the upside? It all depends on if he plays all four rounds. His ownership projection is under 11%, and he has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in the field. He has the second-highest Perfect%, the second-highest SimLeverage, and the third-highest Leverage in the field. From a game theory perspective, Scheffler’s upside is too good to pass up for some of your GPP lineups as a boom-or-bust swing for the fences.
Jordan Spieth $9,400
Unlike Scheffler, Spieth does not have great recent form rolling into Harbour Town this week, but this is a track that sets up beautifully for him. He is one of just four of the 12 players with salaries of at least $9,000 that has an ownership projection under 15%. Spieth’s recent struggles have scared the public off of him this week, but this should be a perfect place for him to bounce back.
Spieth has made the cut in each of his seven career appearances at this event and finished in the top 12 in five of those events. He won the event two years ago by beating Patrick Cantlay in a playoff and lost in the playoff to Fitzpatrick last year.
Before his recent struggles, Spieth actually started the season strong with a third-place finish at the Sentry in Hawaii and a sixth-place finish at the Phoenix Open. Things started unraveling for him when he was disqualified from The Genesis Invitational. He looked like he might be back on track after a T10 at the Valero Texas Open two weeks ago, but he fell apart at the Masters last week. He was undone by a quadruple-bogey nine at the par five 15th in Round 1 and never really got back on track. A positive from that, though, is that he didn’t have the stress of slogging through the weekend at Augusta, and his wrist got extra time to recover.
There’s definitely plenty of risk in going with Spieth, but like Scheffler, his upside makes him worth it at such a low ownership projection.
Now in beta testing: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Sahith Theegala $8,900
Theegala has the second-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all the players with a salary under $9,000. He only has the eight-highest ownership projection in that salary range, checking in under 14%.
The venue should play to Theegala’s strengths, as he showed last year with a fifth-place finish after also making the cut in his 2022 debut.
Theegala has made the cut in each of his eight tournaments since The Sony Open in Hawaii. He finished runner-up at The Sentry the week before that in Hawaii and has added three more top 10s already this season.
Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks in the top 10 in this elite field in Total Strokes Gained, and over his last 24 rounds, he ranks 24th in Strokes Gained: Approach. Theegala had a quiet Masters overall, finishing T45 with consistent play throughout the week. He has the well-rounded game that Harbour Town demands, and if he gets hot, he can score with the best on the PGA TOUR.
Russell Henley $8,100
Henley has exactly the kind of game that fits this venue since he typically excels with his irons and ranks highly in Strokes Gained: Approach. He has made the cut in just four of his seven appearances at the RBC Heritage, but three of those events resulted in top-20 finishes, including last year when he finished T19.
Of the players with salaries under $9,000, Henley has the highest Perfect%. He also has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projection of all the players with salaries under $8,500.
Aside from a missed cut at THE PLAYERS, Henley has made the cut in every tournament he has played this season, highlighted by top-five finishes at the Valero Texas Open two weeks ago and the Arnold Palmer Invitational in mid-March. He leads the field in Strokes Gained: Putting over the last 20 rounds and also ranks in the top 15 in Total Strokes Gained. Looking at his longer-term form, he ranks seventh in Strokes Gained: Approach and 10th in Total Strokes Gained over the last 12 months.
Henley’s game is a great course fit, and his ownership projection is very workable compared to other players in this salary range who project to be over-owned.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $500 deposit match.
Value PGA DFS Picks
Chris Kirk $7,700
Kirk has the highest ceiling projection of all golfers with salaries under $8,000 and the second-highest Perfect% in that price range behind only Brian Harman, who has a strong course history on this track as well. Kirk has a lower ownership projection, though, making him a slightly better leverage play and giving him a positive SimLeverage.
After getting a win at The Sentry in the first event of the season, Kirk has failed to notch another top 10. He has still been solid though, with seven made cuts in eight tournaments and a top-26 finish in his two most recent events, THE PLAYERS, and the Masters. Last week, Kirk had a great Saturday with a 68 and used that to rise to a T16 finish at Augusta.
He has played the RBC Heritage seven times with four made cuts highlighted by a T7 back in 2021. He also played in this event last year, finishing T41. In the past, his best showings have usually come on tighter tracks like this one, which rewards being in the right position and playing well with shorter and middle irons.
Over his last 36 rounds, Kirk ranks 11th in this elite field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and 12th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. His putter has been a little shaky lately, but if he can build on Saturday’s ball-striking success, he could contend for another Signature Event win this week.
Matthieu Pavon $7,000
Even though he only costs $7,000, Pavon has the second-highest ceiling projection of all golfers with salaries under $8,000 this week. Kirk is the only player in that price range with a higher ceiling projection than Pavon, who continues to have an impressive rookie season on the PGA TOUR.
The 31-year-old Frenchman claimed his breakthrough win at Torrey Pines, but he has shown the ability to contend in elite fields on tight tracks like this one. He finished in the top 10 at The Sony Open in Hawaii on a course that has a very similar setup to Harbour Town. He also added a third-place finish at Pebble Beach and finished T12 in his Masters debut last week.
Pavon has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his nine events on the PGA TOUR and DP World Tour this year. In his 29 PGA TOUR rounds in 2024, he ranks sixth in this elite field in Total Strokes Gained and fourth in Strokes Gained: Putting. He leads the field in Strokes Gained: Putting over the last 30 rounds and also ranks in the top 25 in Strokes Gained: Approach during that time frame.
With an ownership projection under 10%, Pavon has the second-highest SimLeverage of players priced between $7,000-$8,000. He has the second-highest Perfect% of players with salaries under $7,500 and makes a great against-the-grain play that can save you salary while still bringing a high ceiling.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Erik Van Rooyen $6,700
EVR has the highest Perfect% of all players with salaries under $7,000 and the third-highest SimLeverage on the whole slate since his ownership projection is extremely low at under 2%. He and Pavon have the same Leverage rating, tied for the highest of all players with salaries under $8,000.
Van Rooyen was a very popular play earlier this season but has faded from the spotlight a bit after two missed cuts at THE PLAYERS and the Texas Open. He bounced back and made the cut at Augusta last week, finishing T55 after a rough weekend. Before his mini-slump, he posted back-to-back top 10s at the Mexico Open and Cognizant Classic.
He’ll look to get back in the form from those two successful weeks as he returns to a course where he has had success in the past. EVR missed the cut last year at Harbour Town but finished T21 in 2020 and T10 in 2022.
Over his last 36 rounds, Van Rooyen ranks in the top 25 in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and he usually has strong numbers off the tee and on approach. His game around the green can be an adventure at times, but if he can keep his irons dialed in, he’ll end up as a great sleeper play this week.
Webb Simpson $6,200
With everyone expected to play four rounds, this is a week to go with a cheap flier with less risk of it spoiling your lineups due to an early exit. One of the most interesting fliers this week is Simpson, who has been largely off the fantasy golf radar lately but could be in a great spot here as he plays on a sponsor exemption.
Simpson definitely knows his way around the course. The 38-year-old North Carolina native has made the cut in 12 of his 14 trips to this event with eight top 25s. He set the tournament record with a -22 in his victory back in 2020, and he finished in the top 10 the following year as well. Simpson missed the cut last year, but he comes in with much better form this year.
Simpson missed over half his cuts in the 2022-2023 season but has played the weekend in five of six events this year. He made the cut at the Valspar and the Valero in his last two events, finishing T54 and T45 respectively. His history here and that current form should at least help him finish in the middle of the pack, and if he can do that from this salary, he’ll help you stuff your lineup with superstars with big salaries.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
THE CJ CUP in South Carolina Top PGA DFS Picks, Values and Sleepers for Large-Field GPPs on DraftKings
The RSM Classic Top PGA DFS Picks, Values and Sleepers for Large-Field GPPs on DraftKings
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Top PGA DFS Picks, Values and Sleepers for Large-Field GPPs on DraftKings
WM Phoenix Open Top PGA DFS Picks, Values and Sleepers for Large-Field GPPs on DraftKings
