Last week was a bit of a wild ride, wouldn’t you say? The rush of the Masters, both in preparation for and the event itself, might have you slightly burnt out, but if you’re enough of a golf junky to want to push forward this week, here is a course breakdown of the Harbour Town Golf Links – site of this week’s RBC Heritage PGA Tour event.
This is another tour event with an average field; talk about a Masters hangover. The past winners at this event have basically been the most accomplished players in the field (McDowell, Kuchar, Furyk), which some may find to be a little boring (the presence of Jason Day can hopefully bring some excitement). One thing that stands out with the names at the top of the past leaderboards is the complete lack of dominance in any one category – meaning we’ll have to evaluate the players in several areas and try and find someone whose all-around game is more well-rounded.
(For information on how to use the data presented in this article [using the FantasyLabs PGA Trends tool], scroll to the bottom)
The Par 5s
There are only three Par 5s here, so scoring opportunities will be limited. However, they are relatively short, with yardages of 588, 540, and 502. The top 10 last year all played the Par 5s under par, and they are certainly easy holes for those who succeed on the Par 5s. Driving distance won’t be the biggest factor given the length of the holes (can’t hurt though), but Par 5 Scoring Average and Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage can help identify players that will capitalize on these holes.
Par 5 Scoring Averages (2014-2015)
Over the past two seasons, players have averaged -3.38 strokes per tournament on the Par 5s. Using that as the value for Recent Par 5 Scoring in the Trends tool, we get the following:
It seems to not be a positive indicator of success, with a Plus/Minus of -3.10. The majority of the field were matches for this week’s tournament.
The Par 4s
The Par 4s at Harbour Town are get-able, similar to the Par 5s. Players with past success have made their fair share of bogeys on these holes, but have always found ways to make more birdies. For that reason, bogey avoidance can be minimized when trying to predict a players Par 4 performance. Other Par 4 scoring stats will be useful though, such as Par 4 Scoring Average and Par 4 Birdie or Better Percentage. Greens in Regulation (GIR) stats from 150 to 200 yards will help identify players that could have a fair amount of birdie chances.
Par 4 Scoring Averages (2014-2015)
Over the past two seasons, players have averaged 0.22 strokes over par per tournament on the Par 4s. Using that as the value for Recent Par 4 Scoring in the Trends tool, we get the following:
It seems to not be a positive indicator of success, with a Plus/Minus of -1.48. There were 19 matches for the trend in this week’s tournament.
The Par 3s
These were the most difficult holes for the top of the leaderboard last year. Therefore, focusing on just the scoring averages on these holes should be enough. Players can get through these holes with no birdies, but still make up for it on the 4s and 5s, so trying to pick players that consistently score on the Par 3s won’t necessarily help you. Focus on Par 3 Scoring Average, Bogey Avoidance, and Par 3 Scrambling.
Par 3 Scoring Averages (2014-2015)
Over the past two seasons, players have averaged 2.3 strokes over par per tournament on the Par 3s. Using that as the value for Recent Par 3 Scoring in the Trends tool, we get the following:
It seems to be a positive indicator of success, with a Plus/Minus of +2.18. The majority of the field were matches for this week’s tournament.
Summary
Plugging in the following bottom parameters into the Trends tool:
Recent Par 3 = +2.30
Recent Par 4 = +0.22
Recent Par 5 = -3.38
We end up with six matches for the combined Trend for this week’s tournament.
Try out the PGA DFS Trends tool for yourself and see this week’s matches for course scoring averages!
How to use this breakdown:
The data presented in these articles each with are meant to be used with the FantasyLabs PGA Trends tool. By plugging in the historical scoring averages, it is possible to find players who match specific course fits. This method is just another part of weekly PGA research that is able to be back tested to see its predictive performance.
The data presented in these articles each with are meant to be used with the FantasyLabs PGA Trends tool. By plugging in the historical scoring averages, it is possible to find players who match specific course fits. This method is just another part of weekly PGA research that is able to be back tested to see its predictive performance.
To create your own Trends using this data, follow these instructions:
- Visit the PGA Trends tool (active subscription required)
- Click on ‘Create a Fantasy Trend’
- Provide a name for your trend, and then under ‘Course’ select this week’s course (Harbour Town)
- Click ‘OK’ to create your trend
- From the filters on the left side, select the ‘Recent Form Filters’, and then find the par 3, 4, and 5 filters
- Input the provided values as desired, and then select ‘Current Matches’ to see this week’s players who fit your Trend
Note: You can create separate trends or combined with multiple values to slim down the matches.
