The NHL Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a two-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Skaters
Studs
Tonight’s two-game slate features only three skaters on each site priced higher than $6,800:
Center
- Jack Eichel @ Detroit: DraftKings – $7,500, FanDuel – $7,400
- Mika Zibanejad @ Columbus: DraftKings – $7,400, FanDuel – $7,100
Winger
- Evander Kane @ Detroit: DraftKings – $7,700, FanDuel – $6,800
- Pavel Buchnevich @ Columbus: DraftKings – $ 6,300, FanDuel – $5,900
- Cam Atkinson vs. NY Rangers: DraftKings – $6,100, FanDuel – $6,200
- Rick Nash @ Columbus: DraftKings – $5,800, FanDuel – $6,600
Defense
- Kevin Shattenkirk @ Columbus: DraftKings – $5,800, FanDuel – $6,300
- Seth Jones vs. NY Rangers: DraftKings – $5,200, FanDuel – $5,100
Correlating your lineups through stacking is almost always important in DFS hockey, but it’s particularly crucial on a two-game slate. Eichel and Kane haven’t skated together the entire season, which could be part of their low 0.10 correlation coefficient in our Models. But we expect them to play together in all situations tonight against Detroit. Unfortunately, the Red Wings have allowed the ninth-fewest goals this year and the Sabres own the slate’s the lowest Corsi-For, Goals-For, and matchup expectation on the slate.
If you’re fading some of the aforementioned studs, it could make a ton of sense to pay up in Columbus. With the highest implied total on the slate (3.3), the Blue Jackets will be extremely popular at home against a Rangers team that has allowed the sixth-most goals and own the highest Corsi-Against expectation on the slate.
In that same game, Zibanejad and Buchnevich could provide leverage off the chalk with a 0.40 correlation coefficient and also skate together in all situations. That said, the matchup against Columbus is not ideal. The Blue Jackets have allowed the second-fewest power play opportunities, seventh-fewest goals, and 11th-fewest shots this year.
Values
Marco Scandella (DraftKings – $3,900, FanDuel – $3,600): Scandella ranks the 86th percentile of shots + blocks over the past month, seventh-highest of any player in the slate. His price is up $1,000 on DraftKings over the past month, but he’s still likely underpriced relative to his peripheral stats and role on the first power play unit.
Tomas Tatar (DraftKings – $4,100, FanDuel – $5,500): With a 99 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings, Tatar is intriguing, ranking in the 85th percentile or higher in shots, power play shots, and shots+blocks over the past month. He gives you access to the Red Wings first power play unit at a discount, and Detroit’s 3.1 implied goal total is second-highest on the slate against a Buffalo team allowing the second-most goals in the league.
One-Timers
Ryan McDonagh (DraftKings – $4,700, FanDuel – $5,500): His 4.23 shots+blocks per game over the past month trails only Seth Jones (4.29), but McDonagh’s 98th percentile blocks per game leads the slate. McDonagh likely will see lower ownership even though both defensemen hit on seven Pro Trends – plus, he leads the position with a 94 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
Artemi Panarin (DraftKings – $5,900, FanDuel – $6,500): Columbus has the sixth-most shots on goal this year, and unsurprisingly, the highest Corsi-For over the past month of any team in the slate. Panarin leads the team with 4.9 shot attempts per game over the past month (98th percentile overall), trailing only Kane among players on tonight’s slate. With the Blue Jackets carrying the slate’s highest implied total, Panarin – and the rest of the Columbus PP1 – should draw a lot of interest, as they should; did we mention they also own the most favorable matchup expectation?
Notable Stacks
That said, one of our highest-rated four-man DraftKings stacks currently belongs to the first power play unit of New York Rangers:
The New York-Columbus game is likely to be the most popular game of the night from a fantasy perspective. Since ownership tends to mirror Vegas lines, the Rangers may be slightly less owned than the Blue Jackets. The Rangers lead all teams on the slate in goals for and total fantasy points during a scorching six-game win streak this past month; Columbus, meanwhile, during that stretch, has the highest Corsi-Allowed among the slated teams. We’ve already touched on Zibanejad and Buchnevich, but Chris Kreider and Kevin Shattenkirk each rank in the 86th percentile in shots+blocks over the past month and the latter could offer upside galore, as he ranks, over that same period, in the 95th percentile in points.
Columbus rates highly on both sites. However, it’s way easier to jam in a Blue Jackets stack on FanDuel:
Atkinson, Jones, and Boone Jenner all own a top-five Corsi-For at their respective positions today, and we’ve talked extensively on NHL Inside the Lab about the value of adding a goaltender to your stacks. Intuitively, if the fantasy points expectation is favorable, it makes sense that the goalie on the same team could be in a good spot to get a win. Defensively, the Rangers have reeked on the road, allowing a league-high 4.5 goals per game; so regardless of ownership this could be a great spot for Columbus.
Note: Be sure to check out our Starting Goalies page to confirm Bobrovsky as the starter.
Goalies
Our new save prediction metric, something on which we spent countless hours on this offseason, takes into account myriad factors:
- Opposing team’s average shots
- Team’s average shots allowed
- The goalie’s goals against average (GAA)
Now that we have a few weeks of data, save prediction should be a big part of our process at goaltender. Wins are weighted significantly in both DraftKings & FanDuel scoring, but this slate is wide open:
- Detroit -150 vs. Buffalo
- Columbus -143 vs. New York
- New York +129 @ Columbus
- Buffalo +136 @ Detroit
Jimmy Howard will start for the Red Wings, a team which has allowed the seventh-most shots on goal against an impotent Buffalo offense with the second fewest goals in the league. Howard is a viable option in cash games; he own the slate’s second-highest save prediction and his team has a high likelihood of winning. But he’s also the second-most expensive option on DraftKings at a position that historically hasn’t made sense to pay up for.
Henrik Lundqvist could carry a ton of upside in tournaments — road dog goalies tend to be overlooked — with the highest save prediction on the slate. At a position with a ton of variance, you can gain a huge edge on the field by rostering a low-owned goalie against a chalk offense, especially if they steal an unlikely win.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
