Whether you buy the hype of THE PLAYERS Championship as the “Fifth Major” or not, it’s definitely one of the biggest events on the PGA TOUR each season. Since moving to March, the event is a great preview of the first actual major championship, The Masters, which is now just a month away. The extra attention and hype usually make for a great tournament with plenty of exciting coverage all weekend.
The iconic TPC Sawgrass sets the perfect stage for one of the greatest shows in golf each year, and all the biggest names in the sport will be on hand to take on the famous island green of No. 17 and the rest of the challenging Pete Dye design.
This tournament has been one of the most prestigious on the PGA TOUR for several years, but it has also been very unpredictable. Sometimes elite players have walked away with a victory, while other times, PGA TOUR grinders have been able to put together a great week and hoist the trophy. Even newcomers have had some success on this track, with a few first-time competitors taking home the win in its history.
For more details on the course and what stats to look for, check out the stats preview from Matt Vincenzi.
The field for this week is once again absolutely tremendous, with 44 of the top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings set to tee off. The new “Big Three” of Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, and Scottie Scheffler are all ready to compete, and each could finish the week at No. 1 overall if things go their way at Sawgrass. They’ll play the first two rounds together in an amazing marquee group that will make Thursday and Friday even more interesting. Rahm will be looking for his fourth win of the season, while Scheffler and Rory are looking to bounce back from near misses at Bay Hill.
Every single winner of this season’s PGA TOUR events is in the field, including Nico Echavarria and Kurt Kitayama, fresh off their wins last week in Puerto Rico and at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, respectively. The field is remarkably deep and full of good options for what should be another outstanding tournament, with plenty of drama coming down the stretch on Sunday. So far, the PGA TOUR Elevated Events have delivered fun finishes, and this week should be no exception.
In this post, we try to focus on players who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding these high-leverage plays with low ownership is critical for GPP lineups. I’ll try to highlight ways to go against the grain and take advantage of golfers who most fantasy players won’t be watching as closely.
Since these are GPP picks, we also can accept a little more risk if it raises the ceiling of the lineup. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownerships create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that usually lead to large-field success.
This weekly post focuses on players who are strong plays in GPP contests. These contests usually have lots of entries and pay out big prizes to the top few percent. The big example this week is the DraftKings $2.5M Fantasy Golf Millionaire, the first event of this PGA TOUR season which pays out $1 million to the winner. The winner also earns a semifinal ticket to compete for another million-dollar top prize in early 2024. In large contests like this one, it is critical to try and target players who have a chance to outperform salary expectations and come with low projected ownership.
The players highlighted will be good options if they deliver in all formats, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being the safest plays. Safety and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important. On the other hand, GPPs call for high-risk, high-reward options with high ceilings and low projected ownership. To find specific guidance for all the different kinds of contests, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A couple of key new stats to specifically use for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be extremely volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Jon Rahm $11,800
There are lots of reasons that make sense not to play Rahm this week. After a great opening round of 65 last week, Rahm stumbled to a T39 at Bay Hill. It was the first time all season he seemed to be out of complete control and actually looked like he might be human after all. He also comes into this event with a massive salary that is higher than anyone else in the field, with only an in-form Rory McIlroy within $1,000 of his hefty price tag.
So why would you pay way up for Rahm? It all comes down to game theory. Public sentiment is very against Rahm, and his ownership is projected to be only 14.3%. According to Vegas, he and Rory are tied with the best odds to win the tournament, but Rory is projected to be in 21.5% of lineups. In fact, only Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa are projected to be less owned than Rahm among the players over $9K. Getting such a good chance to win the tournament at such low ownership makes him an outstanding “against the grain” GPP play.
The upside with Rahm is undeniable. He already won against elite fields on iconic tracks at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, the Farmers Insurance Open, and The Genesis Invitational. He also has a great record at TPC Sawgrass, going 5-for-5 making the cut with a pair of top 15s.
In the entire field, Rahm is the single player in the most optimal lineups, according to our thousands of sims. With his low ownership, he also brings the highest SimLeverage by an incredible margin. His SimLeverage is 10.2%, and no other players’ SimLeverage is over 4%.
Rahm sets up to be a classic case of going against public sentiment and recency bias to get a premium player when most other players are passing on him. If he returns to his best, he has proven he can be unbeatable. Taking that chance when few others do is a strategy that could definitely pay off.
Even if you don’t like Rahm as a DFS play, you could look at his more/less strokes (70.5) on PrizePicks for Round 1 ($100 sign-up bonus with promo code LABS).
Tony Finau $9,200
Finau is another top-tier player with plenty of winning pedigree that comes in without a ton of fanfare. Finau’s recent form and overall game should fit the course pretty well, but his course history hasn’t been good. He missed the cut in each of the last two years but did have a top 25 before that in 2019.
Finau does come in with good form, though, having posted top-25 finishes in each of his six tournaments this year. He won last fall at the Cadence Bank Houston Open and is up to six PGA TOUR career wins, including a FedExCup playoff event with a top field.
The sims and the projections favor Finau’s current form over his course history. As a result, he is in the fifth-most Perfect% in the entire field, which indicates he’s a solid value at the ninth-highest salary. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any player over $9K.
Public sentiment is a bit down on Finau, so he is only projected for 15.6% ownership, which gives him the fifth-highest SimLeverage of players at $8K or higher.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Cameron Young $8,500
The $8,000 range is packed with players that are projected to be popular options, led by Jason Day, who has the highest ownership projection in the field for lots of good reasons. Tyrrell Hatton, Will Zalatoris, Matthew Fitzpatrick, and Jordan Spieth are all in this price range as well with over 10% ownership.
Don’t overlook Young, even though his track record of success isn’t quite as long as those more experienced options. Young missed the cut in his debut last year, but that’s not unusual for debutants on this tricky layout.
This season, Young has been sharp, exceeding salary-based expectations in five of his six most recent events. Last week, he posted his first top-10 of the year, although he has been in the top 25 in three other tournaments. While his putting game has been holding him back, his shotmaking remains outstanding, and he ranks in sixth in the field in SG: Ball-Striking. He also thrives in par-5 scoring, which is critical to success at this tournament.
Young’s ownership projection is under 14% at this point, which is low enough to make him a GPP target even though he isn’t a huge lineup differentiator.
Shane Lowry $8,200
Lowry is another strong play in this price range who comes in with a viable ownership percentage for GPP contests. He is projected for 11% ownership which is significantly below Hatton (19%) and Day (23%), who are priced just above and below him.
The veteran Irishman has a great history of performing well in elite fields and beat both Rahm and Rory last fall at the BMW PGA Championship in England for his most recent victory. He has also made the cut in 13 of the last 14 majors with four top-10 finishes, including his 2019 win at The Open Championship.
He started his stateside season with a missed cut in Phoenix but had a T14 at Riviera and a T5 two weeks ago at PGA National. Last week, he finished 67th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which doesn’t seem like an outstanding result until you realize that he had missed the cut in each of his four previous career appearances at the event.
Unlike his history at Bay Hill, Lowry has been excellent at TPC Sawgrass in his career, with four made cuts and three top-16 finishes, including each of the past two years. He has also been the best player on Pete Dye courses over the last 24 rounds.
Value PGA DFS Picks
Rickie Fowler $7,500
It has been a long road back to fantasy relevance for Rickie, who struggled badly over the past few years while overhauling his swing. Before his time wandering the wilderness in search of his game, he won his biggest PGA TOUR victory at THE PLAYERS in 2015 after finishing runner-up in 2012. He missed the cut in his last trip two seasons ago and didn’t play last year.
He has turned things around this season, though, and is hitting his approach shots as accurately as anyone right now. He started the season off with a top 10 at the Fortinet and a runner-up finish at the ZOZO Championship. Since then, he has made seven straight cuts, including three top-25 finishes before last week’s T31 at Bay Hill.
Most of those strong results are in events with strong fields on good courses, and he has exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of his 10 most recent tournaments with an astounding +20.21 average Plus/Minus.
His knowledge of this track and strong recent form makes him a strong option in this price range. He is projected for 10% ownership, which is a little higher than I would like, but there are five players at $8K or under that are expected to be even chalkier, which does give Fowler a chance to offer some leverage with a strong showing.
K.H. Lee $7,200
Lee has made the cut in both of his previous tournaments at TPC Sawgrass, which isn’t surprising since he does have a game that relies heavily on precision in the approach game. He has played a lighter schedule to start 2023 but did make the cut last week at the Palmer as a value play from about this same salary point.
He has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his past eight contests dating back to a third-place finish at The CJ Cup last fall. He also posted a very strong seventh-placed finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions in Hawaii in January.
Lee has the fourth-highest SimLeverage of all players priced under $8K and is projected for under 2% ownership.
If he does get into contention, he also has experience closing out victories on the PGA TOUR, having won back-to-back Byron Nelson Championships in 2021 and 2022.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Ryan Fox $6,700
As we get to the sleeper section under $7K, all the players come with significant risks, but some offer some great upside as well. Fox was in my picks last week at Bay Hill and put together a good week in his first PGA TOUR event of the season. The 36-year-old from New Zealand barely made the cut but looked comfortable on the weekend, especially on Sunday when he shot a 67 to vault himself to a T14 finish.
While Fox is relatively unknown here in the U.S., he has 14 professional wins, including two last year on the DP World Tour (formerly the European Tour). He won The Ras Al Khaimah Classic last February and added a win at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in October. Before last week’s strong showing at Bay Hill, he has three straight top-25 finishes on the DP World Tour to get his 2023 off to a good start.
No player priced under $7,400 has a higher Perfect% this week than Fox, and he is only projected for a 3.6% ownership. As a result, he has one of the third-best SimLeverage of all players under $7K.
Even though he’ll be playing this event for the first time, Fox brings enough upside with his current form to be a nice under-the-radar play from under $7K.
Brandon Wu $6,400
Wu didn’t play last week and will also be making his debut at TPC Sawgrass, but the 26-year-old ball-striking specialist should be a nice fit for the course. He finished T14 two weeks ago at PGA National, where he was third in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green and seventh in proximity. His strong showing there was the fourth time in his past five events he has exceeded salary-based expectations by at least 22 DraftKings points.
Wu finished runner-up at Pebble Beach earlier this season as well, and he seems to be settling in nicely by making 10 of 14 cuts in his second full season on the PGA TOUR. The Stanford produced won the 2020 Korn Ferry Tour Championship and posted three top-20 finishes in 2022 on the PGA TOUR. He has the pedigree and style to continue his rise, and I think he’s a great value at this salary.
Two other quick sleeper plays I really like this week have also been regulars in my picks recently.
South African Garrick Higgo always brings a high ceiling but is boom or bust. He has the highest SimLeverage of all players under $7,500 and the fourth-highest in the whole field.
Justin Suh has also been a great value play lately based on his excellent shotmaking. He has made the cut and exceeded salary-based expectations in 10 straight events, including last week’s T24 at Bay Hill, which was his third top-25 finish in his past four tournaments.
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