TPC Sawgrass and The Players Championship
Set at the beautiful TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Verde Beach, FL, The Players Championship brings an atmosphere and field that is typically reserved for a major championship. TPC Sawgrass is a Pete Dye-design that is most known for its 17th hole — a 137-yard par-three that plays to an island green. Stretching just over 7,200 yards, the course tests several facets of a golfer’s game and is often praised for its immaculate conditions.
I will be focusing my attention on both long-term and recent-form Adjusted Round Score, as well as accuracy statistics such as Greens in Regulation and Driving Accuracy. Being accurate will help to keep players out of the many hazards scattered about TPC Sawgrass. Also, course history receives a slight bump for me this week, because there is so much of it for us to use.
Let’s take a look at the top-25 finishes dating back to 2011:
And now a look at those who have finished in the top-25 in at least three of the last five years.
Although this tournament’s rich history can’t be captured by a five-year sample, Sergio Garcia certainly sticks out: There is no denying that Sergio loves this course.
Let’s get the player breakdown going. We can talk a little more about Garcia then.
$9,000 – $11,700
Ricky Fowler ($10,600) is the returning champion, after a dramatic playoff win last season where he showed an unbelievable command of the last few holes. Everything looks good for Ricky coming in, with his solid play last week and win last year, but his course history isn’t as great as one might assume. Dating back six years, he missed the cut twice before notching a second-place finish in 2012, only to miss the cut an additional two years before his 2015 win. He should be a popular play, and I expect his lineup percentage to far outweigh his value. I don’t plan on having any exposure to him, but I would be lying if I said that not rostering him didn’t make me a bit nervous.
Rory McIlroy ($11,700) is always an elite option. Last week was another example of how he doesn’t need to win a tournament to post a huge score, as his aggressive style of play sets up perfectly for the DraftKings PGA scoring. Rory’s course history will tell you that he has made the cut in only three of his six appearances, which is true, but note that A) his three missed cuts came in his first three appearances and B) he hasn’t finished outside of the top 10 since. His 15 Pro Trends qualify as the highest in the slate and his Long-Term GIR of 71.4 percent is outstanding. I will be employing more of a balanced approach this week, but when I do pay up it will be for Rory.
The only player above $10,000 with a better Long-Term GIR than Rory’s is Justin Rose ($10,300). He is likely to go overlooked, with most people gravitating to Garcia ($9,900) because of the salary relief. Rose sets up well for this course and could serve as an excellent pivot off of the popular Garcia. However, Sergio does need to be considered. His course history is the best in the slate. His three straight top-10 finishes only hint at his stellar career performance at The Players, including a 2008 win.
If I find myself unable to afford Rose or Garcia, I will look no further than Henrik Stenson ($9,500). His Long-Term GIR (74.1 percent) and Long-Term Driving Accuracy (69.2 percent) are both among the highest in the slate. Fresh off of a missed cut last week, Stenson should bounce back on a course that’s likely to reward his elite accuracy. He is not lacking in terms of course history either, winning the tournament in 2009 and making the cut in each of his last four appearances.
$7,000 – $8,900
This price range is typically the one that I find myself targeting, and it will be no different this week. Zach Johnson ($8,300) isn’t someone I am interested in rostering too often, mainly due to his 282.7-yard average Driving Distance. Fortunately for him, lack of length shouldn’t present any issues, and his accuracy off of the tee (68.2 percent Driving Accuracy) sets up perfectly for this course. If there were an issue with Johnson, it would be that his Recent-Form GIR of 56.9 percent is 10.2 percentage points below his long-term average, but his accuracy (combined with the lack of necessity for distance) should help to boost that number this week.
Matt Kuchar ($8,100) is similar to Johnson in that he doesn’t have much length off of the tee but is accurate. His course history is awesome, and I am not worried about his performance here last year, when he missed the cut by only a stroke and struggled because of his putting, which usually isn’t an issue with Kuchar. What speaks more clearly to his course history is his Course Adjusted Round Score of 69.1, which is the ninth-best among golfers who have played more than two tournaments at TPC Sawgrass.
To break this trend of talking about some relatively boring golfers, let’s talk about Rafael Cabrera-Bello ($7,100). Rafael’s Long-Term GIR is an outrageous 73.7 percent, but this is his first time in The Players, which is why I’m not considering him for cash games. Also, most of his recent tournaments have been overseas and against weaker fields, but he has performed well in them. His great play outside of the Tour and his T17 at The Masters help to make Cabrera-Bello a solid option in tournaments.
The bottom of this range brings Martin Kaymer ($7,200), who has the second-best Course Adjusted Round Score of golfers with at least seven tournament appearances at TPC Sawgrass. For more information on Kaymer, see today’s PGA Plays Of The Week article.
$5,300 – $6,900
The first golfer whom I want to mention here is Jim Furyk ($6,900). He made his comeback from a wrist injury last week at the Wells Fargo Championship and missed the cut. The Wells Fargo didn’t set up well for Furyk’s 279.9-yard average Driving Distance, but surprisingly he had a chance to make the cut Friday afternoon. I’m considering Jim less because of his 68.5 percent GIR and 67.8 percent Driving Accuracy and more because of what his lineup percentage might be. There is definitely some risk with rolling out Furyk, but I like him to make a run at the cut come Friday afternoon at low ownership in tournaments.
One thing that will likely keep my Furyk exposure limited is the presence of Emiliano Grillo ($6,700). Grillo offers exceptional value at his salary, as shown in his seven Pro Trends and six consecutive cuts made. He has been in good form and sets up perfectly for this course with accuracy off of the tee and a 71.2 percent Long-Term GIR. I don’t like rostering golfers who are playing their first tournament at a difficult course, but I’m willing to overlook that with Grillo this week. His unmatched combination of Upside and roster flexibility is enough to warrant serious tournament consideration.
Long Off The Tee
I’m fading Fowler, but I have to leave you with a video highlighting the final round of The Players last year. His performance at the end of the round and in the playoff was unreal. The dude was absolutely in the zone and hit incredible shot after incredible shot on his way to a victory. If you somehow missed the dramatics of last year, check it out.
Good luck!
