It’s The Players Championship week! It’ll be tough to top last year’s finish with Rickie Fowler winning on the fourth playoff hole, especially after being voted golf’s most overrated player. However, The Players Championship never disappoints in the entertainment column. Let’s take a look at how the course scoring breaks down and if it can be a predictive tool for finding smart plays for your lineups this week.
The Par 3s
Home to possibly the most famous Par 3 in the game, the Par 3s at TPC Sawgrass play a vital role in making this one of the toughest courses on Tour. While the 17th hole gets all the attention (and rightfully so), it has actually played as the easiest Par 3 on property two of the last three years. It is also the only Par 3 over that span with a sub-par scoring average. Golf course architects should take a hint from Sawgrass in regards to how to design a tough Par 3, because only one hole is over 200 yards.
Like all of the holes on this course, water and bunkers will certainly come into play, so pay attention to Par 3 accuracy and scrambling stats. Pete Dye is notorious for rewarding players who hit the correct shot and testing those who miss their targets.
Par 3 Scoring Average (2013 to 2015)
Over the past three seasons, players have averaged +1.43 strokes per tournament on the Par 3s. Using that as the value for Recent Par 3 Scoring in the Trends tool, we get the following:
It seems to be a slightly positive indicator of success, with a Plus/Minus of +0.23 points. For this week, the majority of the field were current matches.
The Par 4s
There are only two Par 4s where water doesn’t come into play (provided nobody tops their tee shot), and just about every hole has bunkers guarding the landing areas. Where there are no bunkers, there are moguls instead to punish poor tee shots. The point is this: Accuracy off the tee could be crucial this week. Birdies will come easy for those who have strong accuracy off the tee as well as strong accuracy on approach shots. Pete Dye has an affinity for short-but-tough holes, so driving distance won’t be the most important statistic at this event.
Another thing to note: Pete Dye challenges players to take aggressive lines off the tee in order to greatly increase the chance of a birdie. There may not be any singular stat to show aggressive playing style, but a player who never goes at a Par 4 in two shots probably doesn’t have a great chance at making enough birdies to contend.
Par 4 Scoring Average (2013 to 2015)
Over the past three seasons, players have averaged +4.25 strokes per tournament on the Par 4s. Using that as the value for Recent Par 4 Scoring in the Trends tool, we get the following:
It seems to be a slightly positive indicator of success, with a Plus/Minus of +0.79 points. For this week, the majority of the field were current matches.
The Par 5s
These holes should be reachable for basically everyone in the field. The real test on the Par 5s is the strategic aspect of them. Distance obviously always helps, but the “grip-and-rip” players will likely see less of an advantage here. The Par 5s are short enough that the longer hitters can get home in two without taking driver off the tee.
Players with a high success rate of getting home in two and having solid accuracy from longer distances will be able to capitalize on these holes. This week especially, it will be important to cross-reference stats. There could be a player who has a high success rate of getting on the green in two on a Par 5. But, if his driving accuracy is poor and he is just able to mash the ball from the rough, that player might actually struggle to score well on the Par 5s given the value placed on locating the tee shots properly.
Par 5 Scoring Average (2013 to 2015)
Over the past three seasons, players have averaged -4.81 strokes per tournament on the Par 5s. Using that as the value for Recent Par 5 Scoring in the Trends tool, we get the following:
It seems to be a positive indicator of success, with a Plus/Minus of +3.13 points. For this week, there were 21 matches for this trend in the field.
Summary
Plugging in the following parameters into the Trends tool:
Recent Par 3 = +1.43
Recent Par 4 = +4.25
Recent Par 5 = -4.81
We end up with seven matches for this week’s tournament!
Try out the PGA DFS Trends tool for yourself and see this week’s matches for course scoring averages!
How to use this breakdown:
The data presented in these articles is meant to be used with the FantasyLabs PGA Trends tool. By plugging in the historical scoring averages, it is possible to find players who match specific course fits. This method is just another part of weekly PGA research that is able to be backtested to see its predictive performance.
To create your own trends using this data, follow these instructions (note: You MUST follow these instructions carefully):
- Visit the PGA Trends tool (active subscription required)
- Click on ‘Create a Fantasy Trend’
- Provide a name for your trend and then under ‘Course’ select this week’s course (Sawgrass)
- Click ‘OK’ to create your trend
- From the filters on the left side, select the ‘Recent Form Filters,’ and then find the Par 3, 4, and 5 filters
- Input the provided values as desired, and then select ‘Current Matches’ to see this week’s players who fit your trend
Note: You can create separate trends or combine with multiple values to slim down the matches.
