My earliest golf memory as a kid was watching Tiger Woods dominate the 2001 Masters, win his fourth straight major, and set into course the greatest string of sustained dominance a single sport has ever seen. I was six years old and, just like any sports-crazed kid at the time, a total SportsCenter highlights junkie.
I grew up watching Tiger, attempting to emulate his swing, playing the EA Sports game with his name on it, and wearing Sunday Red every time I played nine holes at my local course. To me, Tiger was golf. Now I’m 21 years old, I watch a lot less SportsCenter and play video games only in my spare time. Still, watching and following what Jordan Spieth did in 2015 (winning five tournaments, including two majors) made me reminisce of Tiger’s dominance. It made feel a little like I did when I was a kid.
That’s what made Spieth’s meltdown at No. 12 on Sunday at Augusta unbearable to watch. On a DFS note: I was semi-happy. I managed to have zero exposure to Spieth this week at the Masters and instead pivoted to Rory McIlroy. We’ll talk about this below.
Still, I (and everyone else watching) thought that Spieth was going to cruise to his second-straight Masters win. This would undoubtedly put him squarely in the conversation of lone dominant competitors with the Big Cat. I’m still shocked he didn’t sport the green jacket for a second-straight time.
Then something occurred to me: There are countless variables that golfers have to weigh on every single stroke. The wind, the angle of the shot, or the lie from the fairway or in the rough. DFS is really no different. We weigh salaries, recent and long-term form, expected ownership, all types of statistics, and whether or not Strokes Gained Tee to Green is overrated.
As a younger DFS player, I sometimes fail to grasp (on a personal level) just how much randomness there is in sports. It’s unquantifiable and seemingly unmanageable. I do, however, keep coming back to this quote from Nassim Taleb:
We know from chaos theory that even if you had a perfect model of the world, you’d need infinite precision in order to predict future events.
From a macro standpoint, the saying “always expect the unexpected” rings true. But, on a micro-level, since it’s impossible to predict future events with precision, we must accept randomness and attempt to learn from its consequences. From Rickie Fowler’s improbable missed cut at 22-percent ownership to Jordan Spieth’s (two!) water balls on the Par-3 12th hole, randomness rears its head time and time again. It’s up to us to benefit from it.
Alright, that’s enough introduction. Let’s review the Masters and my PGA process.
(Lineup Percentile: 98th)
What Went Right at Augusta
The Masters was very kind to me from a core-play perspective. I mentioned last week that Paul Casey was too cheap and Daniel Berger had sneaky upside at just $6,200. On the same token, Hideki Matsuyama was way too cheap ($9,100) for the form he was in entering Augusta (MC, 1st, T11, WD, T35, T6, T18), plus he hits a robust 70.2 percent of Greens in Regulation, which was a key statistic for the Masters.
I was expecting to get Billy Horschel at much lower ownership (I had about 4 percent in my mind) but was still pleased to roster him at a palatable ownership percentage. Time and time again, you’ll read me pounding recent form in this article and Horschel is a gleaming example of mispricing relative to recent form. He entered Augusta making seven straight cuts and added two top-10s and two top-25s to his form sheet during that span.
What Went Wrong at Augusta
In this particular lineup, I’m incredibly hesitant to say rostering Rory McIlory instead of Jordan Spieth was “wrong.” Sure, in hindsight, it was. But, since everyone was going to be taking Rickie Fowler and Jason Day in the high-end salary range, I thought I’d try and leverage myself away from all of that ownership, pay up to be semi-contrarian, and get McIlory, who had an equal, if not better, chance of winning than the other $10,000-plus choices. It turns out, that process was correct. I just didn’t take Jordan Spieth.
I mentioned how randomness affects outcomes at the beginning of this article, so consider this: Rory went birdie-free in Round 3 and had two eagle putts from within 15-feet on Sunday. If he makes one or two birdies and one less bogey to card a 74 in Round 3 and makes both eagle putts on Sunday, he’s right in the thick of things. I grant you, that is a lot of “ifs” but the outcome is still entirely plausible. Rory McIlroy, like Danny Willett, would have been very close to stealing a Masters win after Jordan Spieth’s meltdown.
My process here, in my mind, was fine. Completely fading Spieth and not applying the same principle that I used for my McIlory lineups (paying up to be semi-contrarian) was my real mistake.
A Quick Look Ahead to the RBC Heritage
Alright, before I leave you, I just wanted to give a quick research note about the upcoming tournament. The RBC Heritage is played at Harbour Town in Hilton Head, South Carolina, and plays as a short 7,101 yards Par 71.
Using our excellent Trends tool, I’ve noticed that hitting Greens in Regulation will be a key to the week, just as it was at the Masters:
You can read past PGA Process articles here: Shell Houston Open, Puerto Rico Open, Arnold Palmer Invitational, and the Valspar Championship.
