Using our Stacking tool found within our revamped Models 3.0, this piece will identify some of the top stacks of the weekend. Likewise, check out our new Correlations page to find hidden edges in stacking positions and games.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver
- Josh McCown ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
- Robby Anderson ($7,700 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
McCown — the No. 1 rated DraftKings quarterback in all Three Donkeys Models — and the Jets await a Chiefs team that has lost five of their last six games. So far this season, the Chiefs have allowed the 11th-most points per game (PPG) to quarterbacks on DraftKings (19.0), and they’re tied with Miami for the 10th-worst mark (18.4) on FanDuel. Additionally, the Jets are implied to score 20.5 points, and McCown has averaged 17.16 points per game (PPG) with a +3.92 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 15.47 PPG with a +2.43 Plus/Minus on FanDuel in 13 games when his team has been implied to score 20 points since 2014. Like Matthew Freedman said, McCown isn’t sexy, but he gets the job done.
Anderson has at least one touchdown in five straight games, and he has eclipsed 100 yards receiving in two of those games. Robby is holding down a steady 22.76 percent of the Jets’ target market share the past four weeks, he hasn’t been targeted less than five times in a game since Week 3, and he has been targeted 45 times in the past six games. Anderson has been a very good value over the past month, and, as a result, his salary is higher than it has been all season on both sites. That said, his price may keep his ownership in check: We have him projected in the neighborhood of 10 percent this week. We currently have this stack projected as the 10th-highest scoring quarterback and wide receiver combo on DraftKings.
Running Back + D/ST
- Dion Lewis ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)
- New England Patriots ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel)
In the five games since trading Marcell Dareus to Jacksonville, the Bills defense has allowed an average of 149.4 rushing yards and 33 points per game, including gargantuan totals of 194, 298, and 146 yards to the Jets, Saints, and Chargers, respectively. Meanwhile, Lewis has emerged as the Patriots’ co-lead back with Rex Burkhead in recent weeks. Ian Hartitz wrote this in his Week 13 RB Breakdown:
The Patriots’ three-man backfield has started to show its true colors since their Week 9 bye …
- Burkhead: 27.7 snaps, 12.3 touches, 51.0 total yards, 1.0 TDs
- Lewis: 25.0 snaps, 14.7 touches, 85.3 total yards, 0.66 TDs
Lewis has a solid 48.65 percent market share of the Patriots’ rushes the past four weeks, and he leads New England in opportunities inside the 10-yard line (six) during that time. New England’s offensive line has the second-best adjusted line yards mark (5.01) in the league, per Football Outsiders. The Patriots are 8.5-point road favorites in Buffalo and are implied to score the second-most points on the slate (28.3). Lewis has produced a beefy +3.15 Plus/Minus with 72.7 percent Consistency on the road since 2014, and he has been even more valuable in his last 10 games.
The New England D/ST began the season looking like one of the worst defensive units in recent memory. In their first four games, they allowed opposing offenses to average 32 PPG, and they didn’t score more than six fantasy points in a game. Apparently the influence of Bill Belichick has finally worn off on this group, as they haven’t allowed a single opponent to score more than 17 points in eight straight games. Moreover, during that time they have accumulated 16 sacks, eight interceptions, a safety, and one defensive touchdown. We currently have them projected for the fifth-most sacks (3.1) on the main slate. In 11 games on the road during the month of December, the Patriots have averaged 11.60 PPG with a +3.63 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +3.87 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Tight End + Opposing Wide Receiver
- Blaine Gabbert ($4,700 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)
- Larry Fitzgerald ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
- Ricky Seals-Jones ($3,200 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)
- Cooper Kupp ($6,400 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)
As seven-point home underdogs, it’s likely the Cardinals will have to pass frequently to keep pace with the high-powered Rams offense. Gabbert has steadily outperformed his salary-based expectations during his career, averaging 16.80 PPG with a +2.63 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 16.27 PPG with a +3.79 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Gabbert currently owns our highest Projected Plus/Minus on both sites, and he has looked good enough in his two starts this season, producing 498 passing yards and five touchdowns.
Fitzgerald is always a target share monster, and that hasn’t changed with Gabbert under center: Fitz has led the Cardinals with 29.41 percent and 21.62 percent of targets in Blaine’s two starts. Fitzgerald has 27.89 percent of Arizona’s targets the past four games, and he has been targeted 18 times by Gabbert in the last two. Larry has been a better player at home since 2014, averaging 16.98 DraftKings PPG, a +3.47 Plus/Minus, and a 58.6 percent Consistency Rating.
Blaine’s scout team buddy, Seals-Jones, has been targeted 11 times and totaled 126 yards and three touchdowns in Gabbert’s two starts. Only Fitzgerald was targeted more than Ricky last week, and Seals-Jones has been first or second in the Cardinals’ Air Yards the past two weeks. Seals-Jones is 6’5″ and 243 pounds, and he was a wide receiver at Texas A&M, so he certainly has pedigree as a pass-catcher.
With Sammy Watkins likely to receive the Patrick Peterson shadow this week, Kupp is a good bet to be heavily targeted against the Cardinals’ pass defense. Kupp leads the Rams with 21.9 percent of targets the past four weeks, and he is coming off a career game in which he caught eight of 11 targets and had his first 100-yard receiving game in the NFL.
