The fourth and final major of the year has finally arrived, and the stage is set for another act of the great theater in what has been a wildly entertaining PGA TOUR year. The stars are all in place and ready for their cue early on Thursday morning, so make sure to get your lineups set and ready to roll for what is sure to be another week packed with drama and fantasy opportunities.
One of the main characters who will play a central role this week is Rory McIlroy, who won last week’s Scottish Open in memorable fashion with a birdie-birdie finish. He’ll be returning to the site of his first Open Championship win back in 2014 and looking for his fifth career major, although he hasn’t claimed a major championship since August of 2014. Rory is one of six players with salaries over $10K this week: World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, Masters Champion Jon Rahm, defending Open Champion Cameron Smith, PGA Championship winner Brooks Koepka and Xander Schauffele.
Those are just some of the biggest names in the tournament, and there’s plenty of star power spread throughout the salary structure, providing lots of options to consider. In fact, the pricing has even been expanded, with the lowest-priced golfers now coming in with salaries of $5,500 instead of the typical $6K. The final three players to qualify were Byeong Hun An, David Lingmerth, and Nikolai Hojgaard, who were the top three non-qualified finishers from last week’s Scottish Open.
The field will be put to the test at Royal Liverpool Golf Club in Hoylake. This will be the 13th time the Open Championship has been held at this venue. The par-71 course is full of the unique characteristics and quirks that make The Open Championship such a great major every season. To learn more about the course and what kind of players typically perform well on this track, check out Matt Vincenzi’s stats preview. Matt also breaks down the changes that have been made since 2014.
This weekly GPP post focuses on players with lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success. The picks here are designed to go against the grain and take advantage of players that may be overlooked or not selected due to risk factors.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk if it raises the lineup’s ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that usually lead to large-field success.
GPP contests are contests that have large numbers of entries and pay out huge prizes to the top few percent. Since this week is a major, the largest GPP on DraftKings is the $3M Fantasy Golf Millionaire, which awards $1 Million to first place along with a semifinal ticket to compete for another $1M top prize in early 2024.
The players highlighted will be good options if they deliver in all formats, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being the safest plays. Safety and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important. To find specific guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be highly volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
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High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Rory McIlroy $11,900
There’s definitely a case to be made that all the golfers over $10K are priced too high relative to the rest of the field, but if you’re going to pay all the way up for a top option, Rory is definitely my favorite play. He’s projected for an 18.4% ownership, which is actually a little low. It’s only the fourth-highest in the field, and he has the best odds to win the tournament, according to sportsbooks. He also has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection in the entire field while appearing in the second-most optimal lineups in our sims. Getting him as the fourth-most owned golfer actually makes him a place to get some leverage.
He obviously knows the course, having won here the last time the Open came to Hoylake. How relevant that history may be is a little debatable, but no other golfer in the field has ever won on this track, so it is at least some level of advantage for Rory. His game and the course have both changed a lot in nine years, but he won’t be intimidated by the moment.
He also is coming in off a big win last week at the Scottish Open, where he played from the front of the pack and hit a clutch pair of birdies to claim his second PGA TOUR win of the season. His form has been outstanding throughout the past few months since he missed the cut at the Masters. He placed in the top 10 at the PGA Championship, the Memorial, the RBC Canadian Open, and the Travelers, in addition to finishing runner-up at the U.S. Open.
His game is in top form coming into the event, and it would be surprising if he isn’t in the mix on Sunday. While he hasn’t won a major since 2014, he has been in the top 10 in six of the past seven, including a third-place finish at last year’s Open Championship.
He and Scottie Scheffler are the only two golfers in the field that match 11 Pro Trends, but Scheffler costs more and is projected for higher ownership. It’s not a lot of leverage or salary savings, but Rory over Scottie makes sense for DFS this week.
While he’s not an off-the-radar pick, Rory does have a great shot to finish the week hoisting his second career Claret Jug, and he actually projects for ownership that isn’t too bad at all as long as you differentiate in other spots in your lineup.
Cameron Smith $10,700
Smith is the other potential place to get leverage in the group over $10K. He is projected for under 8% ownership, which is the lowest of all the players over $10K and the second-lowest of the 16 players over $9K. Smith obviously showed he can win the Open last year when he beat Cameron Young by one shot and Rory by two shots to claim his first career major.
Throughout his career, he has typically shown very well in majors, including top 10s at both the U.S. Open and PGA Championship this year and four top 15s in the past seven majors overall. He proved with those results that he can flex from the LIV format back to a PGA TOUR formatted event and still contend for the title, and Brooks Koepka proved that LIV golfers can claim majors.
Smith comes in with good momentum after claiming the individual title at last week’s LIV event in London, although he missed a putt that would have also secured his team the win. Dating back to the Masters, Smith has finished in the top 15 in six straight events, with a runner-up in Tulsa to go with his win last week.
Given his form and pedigree, Smith is a good play, especially if his ownership stays under 10%.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Bryson DeChambeau $8,800
Of the golfers between Smith and DeChambeau, I really like Viktor Hovland and Rickie Fowler, but both come with pretty high ownership. Shane Lowry is a pivot play I like in that range, but DeChambeau is an even better play from just under $9K. Like Smith, he will be entering this event after playing on the LIV Tour but has had success doing that in the other majors this year. He did miss the cut at Augusta but placed T4 at the PGA Championship and T20 at the U.S. Open.
Bryson posted his first career top 10 at the Open Championship last year when he finished T8 and has made the cut in 10 of the last 12 majors, including his U.S. Open win in 2020.
DeChambeau finished T13 in the individual competition last week on the LIV TOUR’s stop in London and has placed in the top 15 in four straight events, highlighted by a runner-up finish in Andalucía, where he was one shot behind Talor Gooch. Bryson’s form has been strong enough, and h seems to be healthy enough to be in the mix this week.
He’s projected for only a 6.9% ownership which gives him a 5% SimLeverage, the seventh-highest of any player in the field. The sims have him in just under 12% of optimal lineups, which is the second-most of any player priced under $9K and the second-most of any player with under 10% projected ownership.
Tom Kim $8,100
Under $9K, Tony Finau and Wyndham Clark are projected to get lots of attention and ownership this week, but I think Kim and Max Homa are strong plays not getting enough attention. Kim seems to have found his stride after an up-and-down spring and played very well last week at the Scottish Open, where he notched his sixth top-10 of the season. Kim finished T6 despite a disappointing Sunday 73, but he started the week red hot with a 66-65 to be right with Rory coming into the weekend.
Kim is only projected for 12.6% ownership which is almost exactly even with his Perfect%. He has outperformed salary-based expectations in three of his past four tournaments, including a T8 at the U.S. Open, and also posted a top 20 at The Masters. His only missed cut in a major was at the PGA Championship, where his mishap in the mud went viral and likely cost him a chance to play the weekend.
Last year, Kim finished T47 in his Open Championship debut, and if his approach game remains as on point as it has been in the past few weeks, it’s easy to see him dramatically improving that result and maybe even challenging for the win this week.
Value PGA DFS Picks
Jason Day $7,800
Between $7.5K and $8.5K, only Day and Sungjae Im have positive SimLeverage, and Day ranks in the top 10 in SimLeverage in the entire field. He is in 8.8% of optimal lineups in the sims but is projected for only a 4% ownership.
The reason for the dip in public sentiment on Day is that he has faded back into the background after his early season resurgence. He had been a fantasy non-factor for a few years before a great start to 2023, which culminated in his win at the Byron Nelson. After that victory, Day dealt with a bone bruise and missed three straight cuts, including at the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open. He did show good signs of being healthy, though, with a made cut and T45 at the Travelers in his most recent tournament.
In his career, Day has made the cut in eight of his 10 Open Championship appearances, including at Hoylake in 2014.
Day has the upside that always makes him a strong play for GPPs since when he’s healthy and on his game, he can compete with any field on any course. He is high-risk for cash lineups, given his current form but still has enough upside to demand attention with this low projected ownership.
Ryan Fox $7,400
Fox is the only player with a salary under $8K that shows up in more optimal lineups in our sims than Day. He also matches seven Pro Trends and has outperformed salary-based expectations in nine of his past 11 events.
The 36-year-old from New Zealand was a popular play last week at the Scottish Open, where he finished an impressive T12, but his ownership this week is projected to be back under 10% to only 8.4%.
Fox has been very solid for most of this year, with his only missed cut since January coming at the Valero Texas Open. He finished in the top 30 at THE PLAYERS Championship, the Masters, the PGA Championship, the Memorial, and the Scottish Open, and he also made the cut at the U.S. Open before a rough Sunday caused him to slip to T43.
Fox is still relatively new to the PGA TOUR, but he has played six Open Championships in his career, making the cut four times and posting a career-best T16 back in 2019. He won the 2022 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship on the DP World Tour last October and ultimately finished second behind only Rory in the 2022 DP World Tour Rankings. Getting a player with so much international experience and upside is a great value under $7.5K, and getting him at under 10% ownership makes him a lock for GPPs.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Jordan L. Smith $6,800
After last week’s impressive showing, Robert MacIntyre is getting a ton of deserved attention under $7K, but he’s projected to be in 17% of lineups. If you want to avoid the chalk, take a look at Jordan Smith instead, who has some good momentum coming into this week after a strong DP World Tour season.
Smith matches seven Pro Trends, the third-most of any player under $7K, and he shows up in the second-most optimal lineups in our sims.
Smith has a reputation on the DP World Tour as one of the purest ball strikers but someone who can run hot and cold with the putter. He showed how high his ceiling can be by winning the Portugal Open with a total of 30-under par last fall and more recently has made five straight cuts, including a T20 at the U.S. Open and a T12 at the Sottish Open last week. His game should be a good fit for the course this week.
He’s a fairly low-risk pick given his current form, but he also brings a high enough ceiling to be my favorite pivot from Bobby Mac at the top of the sub-$7K range.
Marcel Siem $5,800
Let’s dig deep for the last sleeper pick of this week, going under $6K and taking advantage of the expanded salary range. Under $6K, Siem is my top option based on how well he has played this year on the DP World Tour.
The 42-year-old German has made the cut in 12 of the 14 DP World Tour events in 2023 and claimed his first win in over eight years at the Indian Open in February of this year. That win made him a five-time DP World Tour Champion, and he has continued to post strong results with a runner-up finish at the Porsche European Open in his home country and a T10 at the Made in Himmerland two weeks ago in Denmark. He also made the cut last week at the Scottish Open.
Siem is a long shot, but he does bring enough potential to be worth a shot if you need to save salary and spend up on top options. He has had more recent success than the other options under $6K, but he also comes with enough experience that he’s not going to be overwhelmed if he has a shot to play the weekend.
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