No “Blowin’ in the Wind”?
According to Wikipedia, “Wind of Change” is a power ballad by the German rock band Scorpions. YOLO.
The effect of high winds on quarterbacks has been well documented and seems to be common knowledge in the DFS community. Fantasy Labs Co-Founder Jonathan Bales has even written about the wind’s effect on the knuckleball in baseball. My man loves researching the wind.
Since 2014 (per our Trends tool), QBs with floor projections of at least five points have averaged 18.32 DraftKings points per game (PPG) with a +2.17 Plus/Minus and 59.2 percent Consistency when playing in winds up to 13 miles per hour. In winds that are at least 14 mph, QBs average 15.48 DK PPG with a +0.30 Plus/Minus and 43.2 percent Consistency — significant decreases all around.
The results on FanDuel are equally appalling: QBs playing in winds no greater than 13 mph outproduce QBs playing in stronger wins by 2.25 FD PPG, +1.66 Plus/Minus, and 4.6 percentage points of Consistency.
But what about running backs and defenses? It would stand to reason that, as QBs do worse in the wind, RBs and DSTs actually might do better, right? Let’s find out if that’s actually the case.
“Against the Wind”
In my opinion, “Against the Wind” by Bob Seger is infinitely cooler than “Wind of Change.”
We were young and strong, we were runnin’ against the wind.
Per our Trends tool, RBs with a minimum projected floor of five DK points have averaged 12.8 DK PPG with a +2.60 Plus/Minus and 56.4 percent Consistency since 2014. The RBs on FD produced very similar results: 11.55 FD PPG, a +2.30 Plus/Minus, and 55.7 percent Consistency.
When we break the RBs up into two groups — non-windy (zero to 13 mph winds) and windy (14 mph and up) — we can see pretty clearly the effect windy conditions have had on the position.
Non-windy DK RBs have averaged 12.77 PPG, a +2.55 Plus/Minus, and 56.1 percent Consistency. They have performed ever so slightly worse than the baseline, but the difference is negligible.
In the wind, though, DK RBs have significantly outperformed the baseline with 13.7 PPG (+0.9), a +4.19 Plus/Minus (+1.59), and 66.7 percent Consistency (+10.3).
The results are similar on FD. Non-windy RBs produce slightly/negligibly below the baseline: They average 11.52 FD PPG, a +2.27 Plus/Minus, and 55.3 percent Consistency. However, when the wind blows the FD RBs increase their averages to 12.43 FD PPG (+0.88), a +3.34 Plus/Minus (+1.04), and 67.3 percent Consistency (+11.6).
For RBs, wind is good.
“Ride Like the Wind”
“Ride Like the Wind” is the underappreciated hit by Christopher Cross featuring background vocals by the great Michael McDonald.
I was born the son of a lawless man. Always spoke my mind with a gun in my hand. Lived nine lives, gunned down ten. Gonna ride like the wind.
Since 2014, DK DSTs have yielded 7.33 PPG, producing slightly below their salary-based expectations with a -0.28 Plus/Minus. Only 40.9 percent of DSTs have met or exceeded their expectations. On FD, DSTs they have generated 7.29 FD PPG, a -0.22 Plus/Minus, and 41.8 percent Consistency.
Once again, when we divide the DSTs into non-windy (zero to 13 mph winds) and windy (14 mph and up) subgroups, we see a pretty clear result.
Non-windy DSTs perform slightly below the baseline. DK DSTs average 7.30 PPG (-0.03), a -0.31 Plus/Minus (-0.03), and 40.5 percent Consistency (-0.4). On FD, they average 7.26 PPG (-0.03), a -0.25 Plus/Minus (-0.03), and 41.5 percent Consistency (-0.3).
Meanwhile, the DK DSTs playing in windy conditions do well: 8.45 PPG (+1.12), +0.81 Plus/Minus (+1.09), and 52.5 percent Consistency (+11.6). FD DSTs have been equally impressive in the wind, averaging 8.48 PPG (+1.19), a +0.87 Plus/Minus (+1.09), and 52.5 percent Consistency (+10.7).
“Dust In the Wind”
Kicking it old school.
I close my eyes, only for a moment and the moment’s gone.
So what have we learned?
In terms of PPG, Plus/Minus, and Consistency, both RBs and DSTs tend to play better in windy than non-windy conditions. Not only should you be looking to fade QBs in windy games, but you should also consider pivoting to their RBs and DSTs — and if you can stack RBs and DSTs in a windy game then all the better.
On DK, 15 percent of windy games produced 20-point RBs whose DSTs also scored at least 10 points. In these instances, the RBs and DSTs combined for an average of 44.13 DK PPG. For instance, just last month in 17 mph winds Le’Veon Bell and the Steelers DST combined for a mammoth 59.1 DK points.
The answer is blowin’ in the wind.
