So far we’ve covered quarterback, running back, and wide receiver in this series. For the Part 4 finale, we’re again using our Trends tool, but this time we will focus on the tight end position.
Perhaps there’s value in examining patterns with home/road splits (and the further impact of Vegas favorites/underdogs) that can help us uncover value or contrarian situations to target in the future.
Baseline Trend
Our signature metric at FantasyLabs is Plus/Minus, which shows how players perform in the context of their salary-based expectations, and we’ve spent a lot of time working on our ceiling/floor projections for NFL based on similarity scores. I described those projections in detail back in Part 2.
For the purpose of this study, unlike running back and wide receiver, I dropped down the floor projection threshold for tight ends from 5.0 DraftKings points to 2.5 or higher. Those players have traditionally performed above expectations:
What happens if we break things down by home/away splits and favorites/underdogs according to Vegas?
What stands out right away is that tight ends provide far more value and consistency at home, but ownership doesn’t fluctuate a ton on a macro level.
Underdogs carried the lowest ownership, but there is no significant drop-off like some other positions. Intuitively, it probably makes sense to favor tight ends at home regardless of game selection.
Home
Touchdowns carry a lot of weight at tight end, so when the season starts, be sure to keep an eye on our NFL Matchups Dashboard as well as our NFL News feed to see which have the best chance to be featured in the red zone. Let’s start with those given a floor projection of 2.5 or more DraftKings points but also five or more games played last season:
Cameron Brate, whew. He trailed Mike Evans by one red zone target for the team lead — but they tied for the highest target share inside the 10-yard line. At tight end, just Kyle Rudolph (24), Antonio Gates (18), and Jimmy Graham (17) had more red zone targets than Brate (16).
Travis Kelce’s target share of 21.9 percent was fourth among tight ends. His consistency at home was impressive given he scored just three red zone touchdowns the entire season; Brate scored eight on the same number of red zone targets. Kelce finished first in receptions and reception yards, which provided a nice floor even at a high salary.
There seems to be two pretty distinctive ways to win the tight end position: Touchdowns, players with high target floors, or both. Jason Witten and Dennis Pitta may have provided consistency at low ownership, but their ceilings are pretty limited.
Let’s take this one step further. Here are the trends for those same tight ends, but this time as a Vegas favorite or underdog:
Small samples are a huge problem in NFL, but in regards to game theory, we can still find some potential takeaways.
- Jesse James took advantage of the Steelers’ lack of playmakers down the stretch, and he did so at a low salary. Buying in early was probably a sharp play, and he proved to be a valuable asset especially at home in Pittsburgh.
- Brate GOAT didn’t slow down as an underdog.
- Targeting tight ends at home in good offenses seems ideal; Martellus Bennett and Graham were very strong plays at home last season, and they were usually implied for a high number of points.
- Gates struggled as an underdog, but his role basically revolved around red zone targets so it makes sense that he performed poorly in games the Chargers were underdogs (and possibly projected to score less). The public had this one right for the most part.
Is there any reason to be excited about rostering a tight end on the road?
Away
Surprisingly, the most consistent players put up decent numbers on the road as well in comparison to the baseline trend. Maybe red zone involvement means more on the road.
What stands out the most is this list is comprised of players on weak teams and less of the Steelers and Patriots-type tight ends who have large team totals at home. Grabbing low ownership on the road with a guy like Rudolph or Eric Ebron was extremely profitable last season.
Finally, let’s separate the tight ends into favorites and underdogs:
With sample sizes getting thin, here are some actionable takeaways:
- Greg Olsen performed far better as a favorite. This could say more about Cam Newton than Olsen.
- Pitta smashed as a favorite. Targeting players with quarterbacks who are likely to check down to their tight ends like Joe Flacco can be profitable. That said, Pitta was hardly contrarian.
- Rudolph’s role did not seem to change based on his Vegas data. Maybe it’s unwise to always cross off players from your player pool just because they are on the road or an underdog.
Conclusion
- On a macro level, tight ends provide far more value and consistency at home, but ownership is relatively flat.
- Underdogs carry the lowest ownership, but there is no significant drop-off like some other positions.
- Some tight ends can hit value through target volume, but the majority of their upside comes from playing in good offenses or significant red zone involvement.
- Some tight ends have enough situational upside to put less weight into splits and Vegas lines.
