After stops in Texas and Canada the last two weeks following the PGA Championship, it’s already time for the PGA TOUR to get geared up for another major championship with the U.S. Open next week. As an elite warmup, the PGA TOUR has a Signature Event this week at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday. The event always provides a tough test for the world’s elite golfers at “Jack’s Place,” the nickname for Muirfield Village Golf Club, designed by Jack Nicklaus.
This course has hosted this event every year since 1976, so there’s plenty of course history to consider. Nicklaus designed and updated the course to provide a test of a wide variety of skills with difficult rough and firm, and fast greens. The difficult par 72 leaves no room for error and has played an average of 1.12 strokes over par in the last three years since its major renovation, ranking it as the second-toughest non-major course.
The tournament always draws a strong field, and this year is no exception. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is joined by every eligible player in the OWGR top 35, including Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, two-time Memorial champion Patrick Cantlay and defending champ Viktor Hovland. Last week’s winner, Robert MacIntyre, was the only eligible player to decline the invitation.
As both an invitational and a Signature Event, this is one of three player-hosted tournaments on the schedule. The field will be made up of 73 golfers, with a 36-hole cut reducing the field to the top 50 and ties plus any player within 10 shots of the lead.
The focus of this post is strong GPP options who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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Collin Morikawa $9,800
Not surprisingly, the top of the salary structure has the top projections and the highest ownership projections with Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele both as very strong plays, who come in with great form and plenty of attention. Rory McIlroy is less chalky, but the highest SimLeverage of all players at over $9,000 comes from Collin Morikawa, who checks in with a salary just under $10,000.
Morikawa has the fourth-highest Perfect% in the field and the fourth-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections as well. While he does have the fourth-highest projected ownership, there is enough of a gap between him and Schauffele and Scheffler that he ultimately represents great leverage.
Returning to Muirfield Village, Morikawa has showcased some great form. He finished fourth two weeks ago at Colonial and tied for fourth at the PGA Championship the week before. In each of his last six events, he has ranked in the top 25, giving him nine top 25s in 13 events this season.
He has flipped his putter in the last 20 rounds, ranking in the top 15 in this field in Strokes Gained: Putting while staying just as effective across the rest of his bag as well, ranking fourth in Total Strokes Gained and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Morikawa switched to a mallet putter and went back to his former swing coach, and both moves seem to have him back in elite form.
In his career, Morikawa has won an event on this course (the Workday Charity Open in 2020) and finished runner-up at the Memorial the following week. He broke a drought with a win last fall at the ZOZO Championship and seems to be in a prime position to deliver another big win soon. Using him as a leverage play is a strong strategy.
Tommy Fleetwood $9,100
I backed Fleetwood last week, and he was right in the mix until a final-round fade that sunk him to a disappointing T21. I’m going back to the well this week since that result. His lack of much course history has the public looking elsewhere. He has the lowest ownership projection of all golfers with a salary of at least $9,000.
He played this event in 2015 and 2017, missing the cut twice, and has not returned since. However, he comes back this year playing well overall, with 10 made cuts in his 11 PGA TOUR events and a win in his only appearance on the DP World Tour in 2024. His game is well-balanced and shows well on any track, and he has the temperament and balance needed to find success this week in difficult conditions.
He has typically played well on courses that are more difficult relative to par and is in the top 10 on the PGA TOUR in bogey avoidance this season. He ranks in the top 10 in this field in Total Strokes Gained and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over the last 24 rounds and in the top five in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green. Last week, his irons came around, and his approach game was excellent helping him to gain 1.37 strokes on approach per round.
The steady Englishman is one of the safest plays in this price range and also seems close to breaking through for his first PGA TOUR victory. It could come this week at Jack’s Place, so don’t fade Fleetwood.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Max Homa $8,700
Homa has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all players with salaries of $9,000 or less. He has a very palatable ownership projection under 12% and a positive SimLeverage. He slipped up in the first round of the Charles Schwab Challenge and missed the cut, but should be ready for a bounce-back week at Muirfield Village.
In the past three years, Homa notched a T5 and a T6 before skipping last year’s event for a family commitment. Homa hasn’t won an event this season but has three top 10s and nine top 25s. He finished in the top 10 at the Wells Fargo Championship and an impressive T3 at the Masters. He also had top 20s at The Genesis Invitational and the Arnold Palmer Invitational, continuing his pattern of posting strong finishes in Signature Events.
The 33-year-old from California ranks in the top 10 in the field in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and in the top 20 in Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over his last 20 rounds. Aside from that disastrous first round at Colonial, Homa has been consistently gaining strokes across almost every category, and if his putter gets hot, he could definitely contend this week. He’s a good bounce-back play at this price and ownership projection.
Russell Henley $8,000
Henley is always a strong option when a good overall balanced game is needed, and getting him at an ownership projection under 8% makes him an excellent leverage option this week. He has the fourth-highest SimLeverage in the entire field since he has the fourth-highest Perfect% of the golfers with salaries under $9,000. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection of all golfers with salaries under $8,400.
In his last five trips to the Memorial, Henley has made the cut four times and finished in the top 35 in each of those made cuts. He finished in the top 10 in 2020 and in the top 20 last year. Henley also comes into this year’s tournament with strong form. He has made the cut in 11 of his 12 tournaments with seven top 25s and four top 10s. He finished in the top 10 at the Wells Fargo Championship and followed that with a top 25 at the PGA Championship.
Henley ranks in the top 10 in this field in Total Strokes Gained in the last 20 rounds and ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Approach in that span. His iron play is always exceptional, and his putter is really the only question mark for Henley from week to week. He has gained strokes with his flat stick in five of his last six rounds, which could set him up for a big week as a value and leverage option.
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Value PGA DFS Picks
Si Woo Kim $7,700
Kim has an outstanding course history at Muirfield Village, but since there are so many strong options around this salary, his ownership projection is well under 10%. Of all the golfers with salaries under $8,000, Kim is tied for the highest ceiling projection with Tony Finau and second in median and floor projections. His ownership projection is much lower than Finau’s, though, and he has much better SimLeverage.
In his nine career tournaments at Muirfield Village, Kim has made the cut eight times with four top 25s and two top 10s. He finished fourth last year, which was his fourth straight top 20 at this event. Kim’s form coming into this week isn’t quite as sharp as the other options discussed above. He’s been a little shaky, but most of that has to do with his struggles on the green. In fact, he ranks in the top 12 in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and in the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 20 rounds. However, he ranks just 72nd in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting during that stretch. As a result, he missed the cut at the PGA Championship after posting three straight top 20s at the RBC Heritage, CJ CUP Byron Nelson, and the Wells Fargo Championship.
Kim’s consistency at this course and overall upside make him too good a leverage play to pass up under $8,000.
Jason Day $7,600
Day is another player with good course history and very low ownership projections this week. He has the second-highest SimLeverage in the entire field since his ownership projection is under 6%. Of all the players under $8,000, he has the third-highest Perfect% and the fifth-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections.
In Signature Events this season, Day has posted four top 10s, including a fourth-place finish at the Wells Fargo Championship less than a month ago. He made the cut at the PGA Championship, finishing 43rd, and has taken a couple of weeks off since. He has been excellent on and around the green in recent rounds, although his driver has been a little off. Since that’s typically a strength of his game, he could turn that around and leap into contention this week. His scrambling and bogey avoidance has been excellent this season, which should serve him well at Muirfield Village.
While this is Day’s home course, he has said in the past he doesn’t play it a lot in between tournaments. His results have been mixed over the years, highlighted by back-to-back top 10s on this track when it hosted the extra tournament in 2020. Given his solid current form and low ownership, he makes sense to go with as an upside play this week.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Austin Eckroat $6,700
Eckroat has the third-highest SimLeverage in the field since his ownership projection is under 4%, and his Perfect% is the fifth-highest of the players with salaries under $7,000. He has posted some of his best results on difficult courses like this one and should bring good value.
Last year, in his tournament debut, Eckroat made the cut and finished 30th despite fading on the weekend. He won earlier this season at the Cognizant Classic, which is also played on a Jack Nicklaus design at PGA National. Including that win, he made the cut in eight of his last 10 tournaments.
He did miss the cut in his most recent event at the Charles Schwab Challenge, but prior to that, he posted strong top 20s in strong fields at the PGA Championship and the RBC Heritage. Since Eckroat has proven that he can contend on difficult courses and in strong fields, I think he’ll outperform his very affordable salary this week.
Davis Thompson $6,400
What a wild ride for Thompson, who was expected to be in the field for this event until he missed the cut in Canada last week, while Robert MacIntyre jumped past him in the AON next five and took his spot. MacIntyre opted not to play this week, though, so Thompson was back in the field and is ready to tee it up for a second straight year at Muirfield Village. Like Eckroat, he made the cut in his debut last year.
For a player right on the edge of the field, he has very strong projections across the board, especially given that his salary is under $6,500. Of the 30 players with salaries under $7,000, Thompson has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections. He also has the fourth-highest Perfect% and the second-highest SimLeverage behind only Eckroat. He also brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus in the entire field.
Thompson exceeded salary-based expectations in four of five events before missing the cut last week in Hamilton. He finished runner-up at the Myrtle Beach Classic and T17 at the Charles Schwab Challenge. We’ve seen Thompson spike in big-time events like this one when his game is on point, and he comes in with solid recent stats. Over his last 24 rounds, he ranks seventh in this elite field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, which is usually the strength of his game. He also ranks in the top 20 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Total Strokes Gained over that span.
Getting Thompson at this salary is a great bargain, given how high his ceiling is this week with his ownership projection under 5%.
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