After celebrating Memorial Day weekend in Texas, the PGA TOUR is ready to start the summer with its annual visit to “Jack’s Place.” Muirfield Village is named after Muirfield, Scotland, where 18-time major champion Jack Nicklaus won three editions of the Open Championship. Nicklaus founded the golf-oriented community just outside of Columbus, Ohio, and regularly adjusts and tweaks the course to keep it as one of the best courses in the country. The Muirfield Village Golf Club has hosted the Memorial Tournament dating back to its beginning in 1976.
This year, the Memorial is officially an elevated event, meaning that it once again will draw all the top golfers from the PGA TOUR in an elite field. The top five golfers in the Official World Golf Rankings will all be playing, led by World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler ($11,300). Jon Rahm ($11,000) won this event in 2020 and was six strokes up on the field in his title defense in 2021 when he was forced to withdraw after testing positive for COVID-19. Patrick Cantlay ($10,500) claimed his second title at this track after Rahm withdrew. Last year, it was Billy Horschel ($7,500) who claimed the win by four strokes over Aaron Wise.
For more on how the course plays and which players’ games are good fits, check out Matt Vincenzi’s stats preview.
This event is one of just five tournaments each year that is granted “invitational” status, which means there are 120 golfers in the field rather than the full 156-player field. That means there are fewer fringe players, and since the event typically invites plenty of young talent, there aren’t quite as many sleepers as usual. You definitely have a better-than-usual chance of getting more golfers through the cut, but you’ll need to stack high finishes to succeed in GPP. There are also so many elite options that it will be critical to identify which cheaper options are good values to find lower ownership while keeping a high ceiling.
In this weekly post, we focus on players with lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding these high-leverage plays with low ownership is critical for GPP lineups. I’ll try to highlight ways to go against the grain and take advantage of golfers who many fantasy players may overlook or pass by due to risk factors.
Since these are GPP picks, we also can accept a little more risk if it raises the ceiling of the lineup. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownerships create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that usually lead to large-field success.
This weekly post focuses on players who are strong plays in GPP contests. These contests usually have large numbers of entries and pay out big prizes to the top few percent. This week the largest GPP on DraftKings is the $1M Pitch + Putt that awards $250K to the top finisher. In large contests like this one, it is critical to try and target players who have a chance to outperform salary expectations and come with low projected ownership.
The players highlighted will be good options if they deliver in all formats, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being the safest plays. Safety and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important. On the other hand, GPPs call for high-risk, high-reward options with high ceilings and low projected ownership. To find specific guidance for all the different kinds of contests, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A couple of key new stats to specifically use for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be extremely volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
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High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Rory McIlroy $10,600
The very top of the salary structure is absolutely loaded at this elevated event, and both Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm are projected for over 20% ownership, even with salaries over $11K. It’s easy to see why both players would be extremely popular, given their impressive season to this point. Rory is the third-most expensive in the field, followed by Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele. Both Cantlay and Schauffele have great histories at this course and are playing well, so they’re also projected for ownership of over 18%.
Those four players priced around McIlroy have the top four projected ownerships on the slate, while Rory checks in with just a 10.6% ownership, which is the 18th-highest on the slate. He’s definitely getting overlooked in the mix of all the great options on the board, which makes him a great spot to get some leverage.
Rory has the highest SimLeverage on the entire slate at 8.9% since his Perfect% is the fourth-highest on the slate at 19.5%. He also has the highest PerfectLeverage Score in the entire field.
Only Scheffler (12) matches more Pro Trends than Rory, who matches 10 Pro Trends, mostly from his long-term form. His short-term form was a major concern coming into the PGA Championship two weeks ago, but he played well and followed up an opening 71 with three straight rounds of 69 to finish T7. There are a lot of parallels between Oak Hill and Muirfield Village, and both play as extremely difficult tests throughout the bag.
When Rory’s at the top of his game, he can contend every week, even in elite fields. He has 23 PGA TOUR wins in his career, including four majors and six FedExCup Playoff events. There’s really no doubt he has the ability to win this week if his game continues to come around. He also has had very strong results at this event, although he hasn’t been able to get a victory here. He has four top 10s, seven top 25s, and just two missed cuts in 11 career appearances, and he has finished in the top 20 in each of the past two years.
Vegas likes Rory more than his projected DFS percentages, giving him the fourth-highest odds to win behind Scheffler, Rahm, and Cantlay and the fifth-highest odds to finish in the top 10.
Getting a world-class option at such a low ownership is too good a chance to pass up since he makes your lineup more unique while not sacrificing hardly any upside.
Jason Day $9,400
With so much ownership projected to be concentrated in Scheffler, Rahm, Cantlay and Schauffele, Jason Day also comes in a little under the radar. His 8.4% projected ownership places him outside the top 25 and helps him to the third-highest SimLeverage in the field, behind only Rory and Colin Morikawa. Both Day and Morikawa are strong pivot plays in this price range, but I prefer Day based on his recent form and consistency.
It has been a remarkable comeback season for Day, and he got his first win in five years at the AT&T Byron Nelson a few weeks ago. The victory was his 12th top 25 in 17 events this season, and he has placed in the top 10 at elevated events at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Genesis Invitational, and WM Phoenix Open. He is second on the PGA TOUR in scrambling and second in bogey avoidance, so he should be able to find success on this difficult course.
Day is a member of Muirfield Village, and this is a home game in many ways for him. He has not won this event but has made the cut in 9-of-13 appearances, including five of his past six appearances, highlighted by a T4 in 2020.
One reason many players may be passing on Day is that he missed the cut at Oak Hill, but he didn’t seem especially invested in that event coming off his win the Sunday before and didn’t even play a practice round. On a course where he’s much more comfortable and after a week off last week, he should be ready to turn in another strong showing.
Like Rory, Day has shown he can contend in elite fields on tough tracks, so getting him at such low projected ownership is worth the risk for GPP lineups.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Sahith Theegala $8,400
There are 12 players priced between $8K and $9K in this field, and all of them are projected for at least 9.5% ownership. Rickie Fowler and Corey Conners lead the way with projected ownership over 16%, and both are very strong plays as long as you find other ways to differentiate your lineup to keep it from getting too chalky. Theegala is projected for 10.5% ownership, which is higher than I normally target in this range, but the way the ownership is breaking down, it’s tolerable for this week. It’s actually the second-lowest of all the players in this price bracket.
Theegala was impressive last year at this tournament, surging to a T5 in just his second career appearance after a T32 in his debut in 2021. In that top-five finish last year, he was third in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green and, with a little bit more putting success, could have gotten the win. He’s still looking for his breakthrough win as an individual, and this course looks like it would be a good fit for the specialist in iron play.
He has made the cut but not finished high on the leaderboard in his two most recent events at the PGA Championship and the Wells Fargo Championship, but he has made the cut in 17 straight starts and posted back-to-back top 10 finishes at the Masters and RBC Heritage just over a month ago.
This could definitely be the week he puts it together, and he stands out from this highly-owned group as one of the more “against the grain” options to consider.
Si Woo Kim $8,000
Kim’s 12.4% projected ownership is also a little higher than I normally would look for in this range, but it’s actually not bad compared to the options priced right around him. Shane Lowry and Adam Scott are both strong options but much chalkier, so Kim actually makes a good GPP pivot.
Kim has the seventh-highest Projected Plus/Minus in the field this week and the second-highest of all the players priced at $8K or higher. Only one player (Tom Kim) has a higher ceiling projection than Kim with a salary below his, and he made it into just under 10% of optimal lineups in our sims.
Most of the reason Kim shines in the model is his excellent course history at Muirfield Village. He has finished in the top 20 in each of the past three seasons, with a top 10 in 2021. He has made seven appearances at the Memorial in his career and made the cut six times, with a 2017 withdrawal the only time he didn’t make the weekend.
At the PGA Championship, Kim missed the cut, but prior to that, he finished second behind Day at the AT&T Byron Nelson. He bounced back with a T29 last week and should be well positioned for success this week with his accuracy and iron play.
Value PGA DFS Picks
Russell Henley $7,900
Another way to get out of the chalk-tastic options is to drop just below $8K, save a little salary, and take a look at Henley. His ownership projection comes in just barely under 10% but is almost exactly on par with his Perfect%, giving him a neutral SimLeverage, while almost everyone priced between $8K and $9K has a negative SimLeverage.
Henley is the kind of shotmaker that usually finds success at Muirfield Village, and he has managed some strong finishes on this track. He missed the cut last year but did have a top 10 finish in 2020 in the 2020 Workday Charity Open, which was played here the week prior to the Memorial. His best finish in this specific tournament was a T6 back in 2013.
Henley has been quietly assembling a strong season this year, winning in the fall at the World Wide Technology Championship and posting five top 20s in his past six events, including a T4 at the Masters and a T16 last week at Colonial. His one recent missed cut was at the PGA Championship, where he missed the cut by one stroke.
In four of his past five tournaments, Henley has gained strokes putting, and his tee-to-green game has remained very strong. While he doesn’t have as much distance off the tee as some of the top options, he is usually very accurate off the tee, which is exactly what Muirfield Village usually demands with its thick rough.
Henley isn’t quite a “sleeper” given his Strokes Gained metrics and nice track record, but he does offer good value at lower ownership than the options in the tier just above him.
Ryan Fox $7,100
Fox and Henley are both returning to my picks for a second week in a row, and they stand out as options projected to be under-owned who bring the right set of skills to succeed at this venue. Both their salaries dropped due to the stronger field this week, and Fox’s is barely over $7K.
The 36-year-old from New Zealand continues to adjust to the PGA TOUR and has posted six finishes in the top 30 in seven events since making his first start of the season at the Arnold Palmer at the beginning of March. Fox had to deal with pneumonia in April and had to withdraw from the RBC Heritage, but he returned with a T23 at the PGA Championship and a T21 last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Aside from his missed cut at the Valero Texas Open, Fox has exceeded salary-based expectations in every PGA TOUR event he has played this year.
The sims are a big fan of Fox for a second week in a row, giving him the fifth-best SimLeverage in the entire field and the best SimLeverage of any player under $7.5K.
Our projections also favor Fox, giving him the third-highest ceiling projection of all golfers $7,700 or cheaper, and the third-highest projected Plus/Minus in the entire field.
Fox also matches six Pro Trends this week, which ties him for the most of any player priced under $8K.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Austin Eckroat ($6,600)
Below $7K, there are a ton of options with 69 players in the field in this price range. None of them have exceptionally high ownership projections, but there are a few plays expected to check in from 4-6%. Just below those more popular sleepers, Eckroat is projected for a 3.8% ownership as he tees it up for the first time at Muirfield Village.
The 24-year-old PGA TOUR rookie from Oklahoma comes in with excellent recent form. He finished second at the Byron Nelson, tied with Si Woo Kim, and chased that with a T16 last week when the PGA TOUR was back in Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge. He has also had success outside the Lone Star State as well, posting a fifth-place finish in Puntacana earlier this season.
Eckroat has been extremely accurate off the tee in his recent finishes, leading the field in driving accuracy last week. He has at least 4.5 SG: Tee-To-Green in three straight outings dating back to the Wells Fargo Championship, and he should be poised for a made cut and strong finish if he continues that form this week in Ohio.
Aaron Rai $6,500
No player in the field has a higher Projected Plus/Minus this week than Aaron Rai. He has the highest ceiling projection of all players under $7K and the highest floor projection as well, making him a great way to save salary and spend up in other spots.
Rai was rolling earlier this year with eight made cuts in 10 events to start 2023, highlighted by a T19 at THE PLAYERS Championship with a memorable hole-in-one on No. 17 at TPC Sawgrass. He hit a bit of a rough patch after that, though, missing the cut at three straight events in late April and early May. A closer look, though, shows that he wasn’t far off, missing the cut by two strokes at the Byron Nelson and on the number at Quail Hollow. He bounced back strong, though, last week at Colonial, climbing to a T12 with good driving accuracy and GIR%.
Rai’s game has translated to success at this event in the past. Last year, he finished T26 in his debut, highlighted by a 69 on Saturday.
Some other cheap plays that I like this week are Kevin Streelman ($6,700), Matthew NeSmith ($6,500), and David Lipsky ($6,400).
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