We’re finally here!! All the early-season events on the PGA TOUR ramp up to this event, and all the drama both on and off the course have set up what should be a great week at August National. It’s the first Major of 2023, and there are so many storylines everywhere you look.
It’s a great week for fantasy golf players to dive right in, whether you’re an every-week DFS grinder or just jump in to play in major events like this one. FantasyLabs has a full suite of products here to help you make out your lineups to take your shot at big prizes this week, including this post, where we’ll focus on who makes sense in GPP contests.
As usual with a Major, everyone is playing. This week takes on a little extra significance because, for the first time since The Open Championship last year, everyone really means everyone, including the players who left the PGA TOUR to join LIV Golf. Although LIV players don’t get world rankings points (how you get into Majors) for their tournaments, there are still enough players who qualify that there will be 17 LIV golfers in this week’s field. Cameron Smith, who won The Open Championship, and Dustin Johnson lead a group that includes former Maters’ champions Patrick Reed, Bubba Watson, Sergio Garcia, and Louis Oosthuizen in addition to old frenemies Bryson DeChambeau and Brooks Koepka.
After just three events in their season, the LIV players will be joining the top golfers most fans have been watching every week in elevated events and on the PGA TOUR. Defending champion Scottie Scheffler will be looking to become the first player to go back-to-back at The Masters since 2002, when Tiger Woods pulled that off. It looks like Woods will also play this week in just his second start of the year. Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy will look to continue their strong recent form along with Sam Burns and Corey Conners, who just picked up wins in Texas.
This week’s field is 88 players, and the structure is a little different since only the top 50 and ties will make the weekend after two rounds (as opposed to the typical top 65 and ties). With several amateurs and aging former champions with little chance to make the cut, there will likely be more perfect 6-for-6 lineups this week than usual. As a result, it will be even more important to differentiate your GPP lineups with players that are projected for low ownership.
As far as the course goes, it’s the most iconic venue in golf and definitely rewards players who have plenty of experience on the track. For more specifics and a deeper dive into what stats to watch for, check out the full stats preview from Matt Vincenzi.
In this post, we try to focus on players who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding these high-leverage plays with low ownership is critical for GPP lineups. I’ll try to highlight ways to go against the grain and take advantage of golfers who most fantasy players won’t be watching as closely.
Since these are GPP picks, we also can accept a little more risk if it raises the ceiling of the lineup. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownerships create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that usually lead to large-field success.
This weekly post focuses on players who are strong plays in GPP contests. These contests usually have lots of entries and pay out big prizes to the top few percent. The biggest example this week is the DraftKings $$4M Fantasy Golf Millionaire, which pays out a million dollars to the winner along with a chance at another million in the DraftKings Championship Series – Fantasy Tournament of Champions. In large contests like this one, it is critical to try and target players who have a chance to outperform salary expectations and come with low projected ownership.
The players highlighted will be good options if they deliver in all formats, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being the safest plays. Safety and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important. On the other hand, GPPs call for high-risk, high-reward options with high ceilings and low projected ownership. To find specific guidance for all the different kinds of contests, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A couple of key new stats to specifically use for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be extremely volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Jon Rahm $10,800
Rahm is one of the top picks to win this week after a great start to 2023, but a recent run of mixed form has caused the public to sour on the Spaniard just a little bit and actually open up a beautiful spot for some outstanding leverage.
First, let’s get the negative out of the way. In his three most recent starts, Rahm withdrew from THE PLAYERS, didn’t advance from the group stage at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, and finished T39 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. I get it–not great results. Mix in the fact that he’s the second most expensive player in the field, and I understand why people might stay away. I understand fading Rahm, but I definitely don’t endorse that strategy.
His ownership is projected to be ridiculously low, making him a great GPP option. In fact, six players are projected with higher ownership than Rahm, who checks in at just under 19%. Of all the players in the field, Rahm is in the most optimal lineups in our sims, so he has the highest Perfect% in the field. That, in addition to his low ownership, gives him the highest SimLeverage in the field as well.
Prior to his lull in Florida, Rahm was absolutely playing like the best golfer in the world as he climbed to the No. 1 spot in the Official World Golf Rankings. He won the Sentry Tournament of Champions, The American Express, and The Genesis Invitational while running off seven straight top-10 finishes in his first seven tournaments of the season.
Rahm should also feel very comfortable on this track. He has made the cut in every single one of his six career appearances and never finished outside the top 30. He also has four top 10s, highlighted by a fourth-place finish back in 2018.
When a player breaks through and dons the green jacket, it’s usually someone with a history of hanging around Augusta’s leaderboards in previous appearances. Rahm definitely fits that bill, and his game has been excellent across all facets of the game this season. Don’t let the recency bias of a few bad results scare you off from Rahm. He’s actually poised to be a great source of leverage, and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he walks away the winner this week.
Patrick Cantlay $9,500
Rahm is the only player in the field who has better SimLeverage than Cantlay. Cantlay is in the third-most optimal lineups of any player in the field, more than Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, and Jason Day, who all come with much higher ownership projections. In fact, Cantlay is outside the top 10 in projected ownership even though Vegas only gives six players a better chance to win the tournament and four players a better chance to finish in the top 10.
Cantlay made it out of group play for the first time in his career two weeks ago before falling to eventual champion Sam Burns. Cantlay has been high on the leaderboard in many of the Elevated Events but hasn’t yet scored his first win of the season. He finished runner-up at the Shriners Children’s Open to start the season last fall and posted top-five finishes as The Genesis and the Arnold Palmer before a top-20 for his best-ever finish at THE PLAYERS Championship as well.
In his six past trips to Augusta, Cantlay has four made cuts and two top 20s. It’s a little surprising he hasn’t risen to the top of more Majors, given his strong, consistent all-around game, but this is also the best build-up he’s had to The Masters. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his six events in 2023, so maybe this is the year he breaks through. If it does come down to a nervy finish, it’s hard to pick against Patty Ice, who has proven he can be a closer even in elite fields.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Hideki Matsuyama $8,400
There are 10 players priced at $9K or more and 10 players priced between $8K and $9K, including popular options Jason Day and Tony Finau, who are both strong options and regularly featured in my picks. They’re too popular for my plays this week, though, and instead, I’m going to highlight two solid pivots to consider if you’re looking for alternatives.
Matsuyama has the second-highest SimLeverage of the players in this price bracket and seems to have put any lingering health concerns behind him. He had to concede his final match at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, but he looked good last week in San Antonio, surging through the weekend with a 68-71 to finish in the top 15. Matsuyama has finished in the top 30 in five of his eight stroke-play events this year, highlighted by a fifth-place finish at THE PLAYERS Championship.
You can’t ask for a much stronger course history at Augusta National than what Matsuyama brings. He won the event in 2021 and finished in the top 15 for a third straight year in his title defense last year. He has made the cut in 10 of his 11 career appearances at The Masters, dating back to when he was low amateur in 2011.
He has also finished in the top 15 in six of the last seven years, so getting him at less than 10% ownership as projected would be an absolute steal.
Sam Burns $8,300
Burns is the only player in this price range that has a higher SimLeverage than Matsuyama, coming in with a 14.3 Perfect% and an ownership projection just barely over 10%. His ownership is helped by the fact that Will Zalatoris and Sungjae Im are priced just below him and have strong track records here, making them trendy picks.
After top-11 finishes at The American Express and the WM Phoenix Open earlier this year, Burns had a stretch of tough results before finding his game just under a month ago at the Valspar Championship, where he was the two-time defending champion. He couldn’t quite pull off the threepeat and settled for a sixth-place finish.
He emerged victorious the following week, though, at the Match Play event, where he went on an impressive run, defeating Cantlay and Scottie Scheffler before besting Cameron Young in the Finals. Whether you loved or hated the format, it was definitely an impressive win for the 26-year-old Burns, who now has five PGA TOUR wins on his resume and will look to follow Scheffler’s pattern from last year of pairing a win in Austin with another at Augusta.
Burns isn’t a first-timer at The Masters, but he doesn’t have nearly the track record that Hideki brings. He missed the cut last year in his debut, and his game is a little bit of an awkward fit. He usually relies on his driver and putter to overcome his irons, while Augusta National emphasizes strong iron play.
However, Burns still brings enough upside in his current form to be worth the “boom-or-bust” play in GPP due to his strong form and low ownership projection.
Value PGA DFS Picks
Justin Rose $7,800
Augusta National has typically rewarded experience and veteran savvy more than just about any course in the regular rotation on the PGA TOUR. Rose is a good fit for that trend and has re-discovered his game this year with a strong run of results. He is projected for any ownership just over 11%, which matches almost exactly with his Perfect%.
He showed he can still win on the PGA TOUR by claiming the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am earlier this season and has made the cut in five of his seven most recent events. He opted not to play the Match Play, so he hasn’t played since the Valspar, where he finished T36.
His solid form should allow him to take advantage of his extensive course knowledge. Rose first debuted at Augusta all the way back in 2003. In his 17 appearances since then, he has had an impressive six top-10 and 13 top-25 finishes and has only missed the cut twice. Both of those missed cuts came in the last five years, including last year, as he was rebuilding his game. With significantly better form in 2023, I’d be surprised if he doesn’t make the weekend now that his game is back in a good spot.
He has two runner-up finishes in his career at The Masters, and it would be an incredible story if he gets another chance coming down the stretch on Sunday. If things go his way, he could end up winning, but even if they don’t, he should be poised for a strong enough finish to make his a solid value DFS option under $8K.
Russell Henley $7,000
With such a strong top-20 priced $8K or higher and a whole bunch of non-options at the very bottom of the salary structure, it makes sense to use a few options from the lower end of the range between $7K and $8K. Playing options from here gives you the ability to stack up a few of the stars without giving up on getting all six players through to the weekend. There are some strong plays from this salary range, including Keith Mitchell, Chris Kirk, and Taylor Moore.
The option that grabs my attention is Henley at his 5% projected ownership and $7K salary. He’s a second-shot specialist, and his elite iron play always makes him a threat at specific tracks that play to that strength. Augusta National has proven to be one of those tracks, and as a result, Henley has a strong course history.
The 33-year-old from Macon, Georgia, who attended the University of Georgia, has made the cut each of the last five times he has qualified for the tournament. He has finished no worse than T31 in those five events, with two finishes in the top 15.
Henley earned his way back to Augusta this year with a win last fall at the World Wide Technology Championship and has ramped up nicely with a top 20 at THE PLAYERS Championship and a good showing at the Match Play, where he narrowly missed out on advancing out of the group with a 2-1 record.
He comes in a little off the radar, but at $7K, he’s a great way to save the salary you need to spend up in other spots.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Ryan Fox $6,700
Fox has become a regular in my picks the last few weeks, and I’m going back to the well for another week since the sims are extremely high on the 36-year-old from New Zealand this week. He has a 9.36 Perfect% this week, which is the highest of any player priced at $7.5K or under. He is projected for 5% ownership but still brings a 4.2% SimLeverage which is the fifth-highest in the entire field.
Public sentiment may be down a bit on Fox after he missed the cut last week at the Valero Texas Open, but before that, he was playing well with a T14 at the Arnold Palmer and a T27 at THE PLAYERS after coming stateside following three straight top 20s on the DP World Tour.
The concern is obvious–it’s his first time playing The Masters. First-timers usually struggle on this track and haven’t won since 1979, when Fuzzy Zoeller became the only first-timer to don the green jacket since 1935 (you’ll hear that stat repeatedly leading up to and throughout the tournament).
Still, at this salary, Fox is a good sleeper play, even if he just makes the cut and posts a good finish while enabling you to spend big on a roster stacked with stars.
Sepp Straka $6,300
Another international player who can offer a good chance to play the weekend at a rock-bottom rate, Straka comes in with only a 1.5% projected ownership and offers a ton of leverage as a result.
Straka played The Masters last year after winning The Honda Classic, and his best round of the week was a Sunday 71 that helped him surge to a T30. After his strong spring, Straka faded during the summer but re-emerged to make a push through the playoffs all the way to the TOUR Championship, where he placed in the top 10.
He started the season with a playoff loss at the Sanderson Farms Championship but then missed the cut in three straight fall events. He had a T5 in his title defense at the Honda and a T24 last week and also made the cut at THE PLAYERS, so his game is still in pretty good form coming into this week.
Getting someone with a little course experience and current form at this price is surprising, and getting him at this low ownership makes him even more of a great sleeper.
I also like international options Adrian Meronk and Adam Svensson as cheap plays, but both will be making their Augusta debuts and come with higher ownership projections than Straka.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
Our PGA Live Scoring Leaderboard: The Best Way to Track Your DFS Teams
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP Top PGA DFS Picks, Values and Sleepers for Large-Field GPPs
Sentry Tournament of Champions Top PGA DFS Picks, Values and Sleepers for Large-Field GPPs on DraftKings
WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play PGA DFS Stats Preview: Course Fits, GPP Picks, and Values
