Finally, the Masters is here. This is one of my favorite sporting events of the year, but I won’t bore you with stories of me screaming at my television over missed putts, well-struck balls hitting the flagstick and shooting backwards into the water, or unbelievable snap hooks out of the woods. Instead, we will get right into it.
The best players in the world head to Augusta National to pursue arguably the most sought-after championship on tour. The first major of the season is unique in its small field of typically 95 to 100 golfers and a cut rule that allows the top 50 and any golfer within 10 strokes of the lead to advance into weekend play. Course history will play a part in analysis this week, probably more so than is the case with most tournaments. Because of that, we will take a different approach with this week`s breakdown.
If you have read this before, you know that we typically begin with taking a look at the top-25 golfers from the past five years. We are foregoing that entirely this week. Instead, we will take a look at groups of players in four different salary ranges and make note of some course history as we go along. The data that we will be referencing this week goes back 20 years to when Nick Faldo held off Greg Norman in route to a Masters victory.
Let’s get to it.
$12,500 – $10,000
Surprise! This is where the best players find themselves this week. The best course histories, as well as the best overall players, are all bunched into this group. To begin, we are going to start with the best course history on the slate, Phil Mickelson ($10,500).
Lefty’s 76 competitive rounds at Augusta National are the most played in the field this week when looking at the past twenty years. His average score over those rounds of 70.99 is the third best in the field this week behind only Jordan Spieth ($12,300) and Charley Hoffman ($6,400), who have each only played eight competitive rounds of golf at Augusta. If consistency at the Masters is what you are looking for then look no further, as Phil has 14 top-10 finishes, 11 top-5s, and three wins in the past twenty years. With one of the best Recent Adjusted Round Scores in this slate, Lefty is in an excellent spot heading into this weekend.
Another player worth mentioning is Bubba Watson ($11,400). He has made the cut in each of his seven appearances at the Masters. His average score is 71.86 over the 28 competitive rounds at Augusta. He is incredibly long and has every shot you could imagine being necessary to take down this major tournament. His Recent Adjusted Round Score is one of the best in the field and he also has the second longest long-term driving distance, behind only J.B Holmes.
The 2013 Masters winner, Adam Scott ($11,900), has made the cut in 12 of his 14 appearances. Jason Day is coming into the tournament at $11,600 and you could strongly argue that he is underpriced. He is in amazing form and one of only six players in this price range who has an average round under par when at Augusta. Rickie Fowler ($10,900) is also worth mentioning as he has made the cut in all five of his Masters appearances and finish T12 last year and T5 in 2014. This will be a tough price range this week, as each golfer has a case as to why he deserves to make our DFS rosters this week.
$9,900 – $7,500
Justin Rose ($9,900) has played 40 competitive rounds at Augusta, which are the second most for any golfer in this price range, behind only Sergio Garcia. Rose has made the cut all ten times he has set for the green jacket. Rose has three top-10 finishes and he tied for second last year as Jordan Spieth beat him and Phil Mickelson by four strokes. His recent form is solid as he has a driving distance of 307.3 and driving accuracy of 67 percent over the past six weeks. He has also been hitting 67.4 percent of his greens in regulation and scrambling at a percentage of 62.3.
Bill Haas ($7500) has three top-25 finishes and has made the cut in each of his six Masters appearances. He has the second-best average round in this price range with a score of 72.17 over 24 rounds. Haas is not particularly long off of the tee, but he has managed a Green in Regulation of 68.2 percent over the past twelve months. He has also shown an elite ability to scramble with a long-term form scrambling percentage of 62.6. Haas will not show up for anyone looking to fill a roster with bombers, but he makes for an interesting play this weekend.
Some other players worth mentioning are Henrik Stenson ($9,600), who has a high rating in some of our Player Models and has some good recent and long-term form numbers such as a long-term GIR of 75.4 percent, which is the second-highest in the slate. He has a decent history at the Masters, making the cut in seven of his ten appearances. Matt Kuchar ($7,800) has made eight of nine cuts and has the best average round of all players in this price range, averaging a score of 72.15 over 34 rounds.
Overall, there is some good course history at the price range, but it is going to be tough to fit them in your lineups if you want to pay up for a few of the top-tier players.
$7,400 – $6,000
Charley Hoffman ($6,400) has played the Masters only twice, but he has an average round of 70.86 over his eight rounds at Augusta National. His only two appearances resulted in a T27 in 2011 and a T12 last year. The small sample size is alarming, but he has a top-20 Recent Adjusted Round Score and could be worth some consideration in guaranteed prize pools at his price.
Ernie Els ($6,400) shows up well when looking at course history, as he has made the cut in 15 of his last 19 appearances. His average round of 71.10 over his past 68 rounds is the fourth-best in the slate and second-best of players with at least 10 rounds played at Augusta National. That is behind only Angel Cabrera ($6,500) who has had an average round of 72.05 over his last 56 rounds. Cabrera has missed the cut only four times in his past 16 appearances. He won the tournament in 2009 and lost in a playoff to Adam Scott in 2013 to finish second.
Ian Poulter ($7,200) has made the cut in ten of his eleven appearances and has an average round score of 72.39 over his 42 competitive rounds at Augusta. His course history is impressive and consistent, but his form hasn’t been great, resulting in a dip in both GIR and Driving Accuracy. I am still going to consider him, but there are some other options around his price that will pull from my exposure to him.
$5,900 – $5,000
There really isn’t much of what I consider to be good course history down at this price. Almost half of the golfers don’t have any course history to speak of, and unless you are into guys like Tom Watson, who has missed the cut in 17 of his last 20 appearances, you may want to weigh something else when looking for a play at this price range.
If I were to highlight anyone based on course history, it would probably be Vijay Singh ($5,700), who has shown a great ability to get to the weekend, having made 17 cuts in his last 20 appearances. In the past 20 years, Vijay has played 74 rounds at an average score of 72.54. His long-term form falls into the middle of the pack in most statistical categories and only stands out with a scrambling percentage of 62.1 percent. Singh managed to make the cut last week after failing to do so at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He remains one of the better plays at this price when looking at course history, but I will also be digging into some of the first-timers down at this price as well.
There you have it. As always, I am going to leave you with a video. There is so much to choose from for this tournament and I decided to pick one from the Sports Science segment on ESPN. I know, great choice, right? I guess I am just a nerd and love these things. Plus, this shot was just amazing. We have all hit a similar shot at times, but to do it on purpose is another story.
Best of luck this weekend!
