Hello friends, and welcome to The Masters. The seasons first major is finally upon us! We wait all winter for Masters week, and now it’s time to find out if all of the preparation and research is worth it. Good luck to everyone participating in the Milly Maker on DK this week.
In terms of the actual course itself, Augusta is known for having fast, firm greens that demand perfect putts and perfect reads. For the most part, players rarely directly attack the flagstick. Instead, they aim to a separate portion of the green, in hopes that the slope complexes will guide the ball back down toward the hole.
Augusta also rarely affords players a flat lie, so ball striking and iron play will be at a premium this week. If you research the average driving distances for top-five finishers, you’ll notice that there is typically a large gap between them and the tournament driving distance leader. This is mostly due to players being right-handed and needing to use a three-wood (instead of a driver) off the tee. Augusta notoriously is set up perfect for lefties and can cause issues for right handed-players choosing to swing the driver off of every tee.
Here is the breakdown of how the top-five finishers have fared in scoring averages for the previous three seasons.
Scoring Averages (to par) for Augusta (2013-2015)
| Par | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
| Par 5 | -12 | -5 | -5.5 |
| Par 4 | -0.5 | 1 | -2.5 |
| Par 3 | -1 | E | 1 |
The Par 5s
Par 5 Scoring Averages
| Hole | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
| 2 | 4.62 | 4.73 | 4.71 |
| 8 | 4.66 | 4.75 | 4.68 |
| 13 | 4.55 | 4.7 | 4.75 |
| 15 | 4.6 | 4.75 | 4.64 |
The Par 5s are “getable,” as evidenced by their under-par-scoring average in the table above. All four of them play from 500-plus yards and average just over 30 total eagles over the past three years.
If you create a trend using the PGA Trends tool and set Recent Par 5 Scoring at -0.3 or better (the scoring average to par over the past three years), we see that it is a slightly positive predictor of success at Augusta, with a Plus/Minus of +1.15 points.
When you look at the chart below of the top-five performances, you’ll notice that the DDs are all below average, but they managed to have success on the Par 5s. Augusta is historically known as a course that is won by those who take advantage of the Par 5s, so targeting Par 5 scoring stats will be useful this week, while DD might not be the best indicator.
Top-Five Finishers Average Par 5 Scoring and DD
| 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | |
| Average Par 5 Score | -12 | -5 | -5 |
| Average DD | 291 | 265 | 276 |
The Par 4s
The Par 4s have historically all played at par or higher, with an average score to par of +0.2 strokes.
Par 4 Scoring Average and Birdie % (2013 to 2015)
| Hole | Scoring Average | Birdie % |
| 1 | 4.3 | 7.5% |
| 3 | 4.0 | 17.5% |
| 5 | 4.2 | 9.7% |
| 7 | 4.2 | 12.6% |
| 9 | 4.1 | 13.7% |
| 10 | 4.2 | 10% |
| 11 | 4.4 | 6.2% |
| 14 | 4.1 | 13.9% |
| 17 | 4.2 | 8.3% |
| 18 | 4.2 | 14.8% |
Applying the +0.2 strokes to par or better to a trend, we get the following results:
This trend, with a +7.19 Plus/Minus, could be very valuable, with 10 players in the field this week matching.
The Par 4s tend to be tougher to score on as well. Over the past three years, only 11.5 percent of the holes played have resulted in a birdie, while 61 percent have been for par and almost 25 percent for bogey. Par 4 scoring could be something to factor into your model this week.
The Par 3s
This week, Green in Regulation is a great stat to focus on overall, but especially for Par 3s. Poor GIR percentage can always be saved by a good scrambling percentage, and being able to get up and down around Augusta will surely be a useful tool for players this week. When reviewing previous top-five performances, you’ll notice that the majority of the leaderboard has a GIR percentage that is close to the best on tour: The current 2016 GIR percentage leader is at 75.12 percent. So while scrambling can save a player from a blowup, past results say that to succeed players will need to be hitting greens throughout the weekend (Note: Recent GIR is a proven predictor, per Bryan Mears).
Par 3 Scoring Average (2013 to 2015)
| Hole | Scoring Average |
| 4 | 3.4 |
| 6 | 3.1 |
| 12 | 3.2 |
| 16 | 3.0 |
With a scoring average to par of +0.2 strokes, we can plug this into the PGA Trends tool to see if it’s an accurate predictor of success at Augusta.
As is the case with Par 4s, Recent Par 3 scoring is a proven indicator of future success, with a +9.58 Plus/Minus. There are 14 players in the field this week who match to this trend.
Summary
By applying the scoring averages for the previous few years and using Recent Scoring in the Trends tool, we are able to find some positive predicators of success at Augusta. Prioritizing Par 3 and 4 Scoring Averages in your models this week would likely be wise.
