The Low End Theory, Part 4: Low-Total TE
I wrote about low-total quarterbacks. It developed into a series.
FantasyLabs Co-founder Jonathan Bales then ripped off the idea and called it a new Fantasy Football For Smart People book.
Whatever. I gave the series a title. And mostly because I wanted to make my editors look up random information about early 1990s rap music I thought of A Tribe Called Quest. So with much respect to Q-Tip, Phife Dawg, and Ali Shaheed Muhammad, I bring you The Low End Theory.
And oh sh*t, Skeff Anslem — he gets props, too.
This edition: Low-total tight ends.
Please refer to the first installment of this series to find out why, for the purposes of this article, we’ll consider any game with a total of 46 and higher to be a ‘high-total game’ and anything played with a total of 45.5 or lower a ‘low-total game.’
What High-Total and Low-Total Tight Ends Look Like
Usually, a high-total TE can look a lot like Rob Gronkowski, and this season Martellus Bennett. More specifically, per our Trends tool, all tight ends playing in games with a total of at least 46 points (high-total TEs) have traditionally produced a +0.37 Plus/Minus with 37.7 percent Consistency.
Conversely, the low-total TE yields a -0.26 Plus/Minus with 33.2 percent Consistency. That’s a 0.63-point decrease in Plus/Minus to go along with a loss of 4.5 percentage points in Consistency. That’s not good — but that’s also not as bad as it might be.
Targeting high-total TEs appears to be the way to go in general, but let’s take a deeper look at them to see if we can uncover any actionable data for DFS purposes on DraftKings.
All of the trends you are about to see are specific to DraftKings. Don’t be alarmed when you recreate them for FanDuel and see different Plus/Minus values and Consistency Ratings.
They Can’t Score On The Bench
Groundbreaking sh*t right there. Drop the keyboard.
Tight ends need to be on the field to accumulate points. That’s obvious. But there’s a magic number you should be targeting, and that’s 40. Check this out.
Tight ends who don’t play a lot of snaps don’t score points. Low-total TEs receiving 19 or fewer snaps per game have a disgusting -2.44 Plus/Minus and have met or exceed their salary-based expectations only 14.2 percent of the time since 2014.
Naturally, those low-total TEs getting more snaps — 20 to 39 per game — provide an increased value, but still have a negative Plus/Minus and have failed to meet expectations in a whopping 71.2 percent of their chances.
But, wondrously, the low-total TE who gets between 40-59 snaps per game produces a respectable +1.43 Plus/Minus with a massively increased 48.3 percent Consistency. That’s a +2.10 increase in Plus/Minus over the 20- to 39-snap cohort and an increase in Consistency of almost 20 points.
You shouldn’t be surprised that the low-total studs getting 60-plus snaps per game provide a +2.31 Plus/Minus with 59.6 percent Consistency. Our targeted low-total TE getting a minimum of 40 snaps per game with no maximum cap has historically produced a +1.59 Plus/Minus with 50.4 percent Consistency.
3 Feet High and Rising
Three: That’s the magic number.
You: “But I thought you just said that 40 was the magic number?”
Me: “What am I, a mirage? I thought you said I was alright Spider. I am alright, you ain’t alright.”
Try and keep up.
The only thing better than a Cutty and water to a mobster is a target to a tight end. Well, three targets to be exact.
Low-total TEs who get no targets get their owners no points. As expected. In fact, those receiving 1.0-2.0 targets per game have historically yielded a -0.98 Plus/Minus with only 27.2 percent Consistency.
Not even a 40-plus snap count can save these guys: Low-total TEs receiving fewer than three targets per game and on the field for a minimum of 40 snaps are horrible. They account for a -1.33 Plus/Minus with 25 percent Consistency. Apparently, blocking on 38 of 40 snaps is not productive for DraftKings scoring.
But when you provide the low-total TE 3-4 targets, the Plus/Minus increases to +1.15 with 46.6 percent Consistency.
Making sure this TE gets at least 40 snaps has no affect at all on Plus/Minus, which remains at exactly +1.15. The Consistency does increase slightly to 47.1 percent.
Low-total TEs who receive a minimum of three targets per game with no maximum threshold traditionally produce a +1.98 Plus/Minus with 53.1 percent Consistency.
When you can roster one of these thrice-targeted low-total TEs who also has a Bargain Rating of 70 or better, the Plus/Minus has historically increased to +2.19 with improved 56.7 percent Consistency.
You’re So #Trendy
So far we’ve established that having your low-total TE on the field is good, and having him targeted is even better. If you are in search of even more value, making sure that he has a minimum number of Pro Trends is particularly important as well.
Low-total TEs who have fewer than five Pro Trends are abysmal, as you can see by their -1.62 Plus/Minus and 21.8 percent Consistency. But a low-total TE who has between five and eight Pro Trends has generally produced a +1.98 Plus/Minus with 50.9 percent Consistency. If you don’t put a cap on the maximum number of trends and keep the minimum at five, the Plus/Minus has historically increased to a generous +2.25 and the Consistency to 54.1 percent.
Combining the minimum number of desired Pro Trends with snaps and targets is even more advantageous.
Adding in the desired snap count of 40 provided a slight gain in both Plus/Minus and Consistency, which bumped up to 56.1 percent.
The low-total TE with a minimum of five Pro Trends and three targets has traditionally manufactured a +2.48 Plus/Minus with 56.8 percent Consistency.
Staying on top of fluctuations of salary is another resourceful way of finding value in the low-total TE. Historically, when a low-total TE with a minimum of five Pro Trends has also experienced a Salary Change of -$100 to -$1,300 in a month, he has provided a +3.17 Plus/Minus with a delicious 60 percent Consistency.
Reviewing What We Learned
While there may not be copious amounts of tactics for finding value in low-total TEs, there is contrarian value to be found in them. Using the FantasyLabs Trends tool to find this value could be an important part of tournament-winning roster construction.
Here are some guidelines:
— Being on the field is essential. Make sure when utilizing a low-total TE that you are targeting one who gets a minimum of 40 snaps per game.
— Even more important than snaps are targets. You want a low-total TE targeted at least three times per game. When possible, combine three targets with a minimum Bargain Rating of 70 to gain a significant increase in both Plus/Minus and Consistency.
— Pro Trends are amazing. A minimum of five Pro Trends has proven to be extremely beneficial for Plus/Minus. Combining Pro Trends with snaps and/or targets will help even more. Using Pro Trends with a monthly salary decrease has traditionally provided a hefty Plus/Minus and trustworthy Consistency.
This concludes The Low End Theory. If interested, you can review my research on low-total quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers in previous editions.
