Using our Stacking tool found within our revamped Models 3.0, this piece will identify some of the top stacks of the weekend. Likewise, check out our new Correlations page to find hidden edges in stacking positions and games.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver
- Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
- Trent Taylor ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel)
So far this season, the Texans have allowed the most points per game (PPG) to quarterbacks on DraftKings (21.4) and the second-worst mark (19.9) on FanDuel. Three of the past six QBs to play Houston have thrown for more than 300 yards, and four of those six QBs had at least two passing touchdowns. Garoppolo completed more than 70 percent of his 37 attempts in his first start for the 49ers and nearly eclipsed the 300 yard mark. Matthew Freedman predicted on this week’s Daily Fantasy Flex podcast that Garoppolo will have a 300-yard/3-TD outing against the Texans. Hump agrees: The devastatingly handsome signal-caller is in a #SmashSpot.
Taylor — a top-12 rated DraftKings wide receiver in all Three Donkeys Models — was targeted six times in Garoppolo’s first start as a 49er. Five of Taylor’s six catches resulted in first downs and his 33-yard catch and run late in the fourth quarter set up San Francisco’s game-winning field goal. The 49ers are currently +2.5 road underdogs against the Texans, who have allowed top-10 fantasy marks to wide receivers with 35.2 DraftKings and 28.4 FanDuel PPG. Taylor has our second-highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings (+3.13) and the highest on FanDuel (+3.17), where he is minimum-priced. The 49ers play at the league’s fastest pace (24.99 seconds per play) and have the highest passing rate (63.5 percent). If you’re not using our Lineup Builder to create 150 lineups with Jimmy G and Taylor, you aren’t living.
Running Back + D/ST
- Alfred Morris ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)
- Dallas Cowboys ($2,900 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel)
The New York Giants have allowed the eighth-most PPG to running backs on both DraftKings (25.6) and FanDuel (22.1) this season. Additionally, the Giants have surrendered 723 total rushing yards in their past five games, allowing individual runners to hit the century-mark in two-straight games. The Cowboys are currently 3.5-point road favorites and Morris responded well to a heavy work-load his last time out, turning 27 carries into 127 yards and a touchdown. Since taking over for the suspended Ezekiel Elliott, Morris has handled 65.98 percent of the Cowboys’ rushing attempts. The only player on the main slate with a higher-projected ceiling and lower salary than Morris is Giovani Bernard.
The Dallas D/ST catches a train-wrecked Giants team that has allowed opposing defenses to score 9.33 fantasy PPG and register a +2.20 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +2.29 Plus/Minus on FanDuel since the start of November. The Dallas defense recorded four sacks, two interceptions, and a touchdown in its last game. The Cowboys have registered the 12th-highest adjusted sack rate in the league (7.0 percent) this season. Dallas is currently the third-rated defense in CSURAM88’s Model for FanDuel, where they are projected for 0-1 percent ownership.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Tight End + Opposing Wide Receiver
- DeShone Kizer ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)
- Josh Gordon ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)
- David Njoku ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel)
- Jordy Nelson ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)
Hump’s much older and slightly-less handsome brother suggested stacking the Browns, and I thought he had secretly slipped into Hump’s stash of moonshine until I realized this Browns trio is the top-ranked DraftKings stack in Adam Levitan’s Model. As 3.5-point home underdogs, the Browns take on a Packers team that has allowed four of the past five quarterbacks they’ve faced — including Mitchell Trubisky — to exceed their salary-based expectations. Those five quarterbacks have averaged 21.34 PPG on DraftKings and 19.94 PPG on FanDuel. Kizer has steadily outperformed his salary-based expectations since the start of November, averaging 17.29 PPG with a +3.68 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 16.54 PPG with a +3.20 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Kizer brings the benefit of additional safety and upside thanks to his 164 yards and two touchdowns rushing during those four games
Gordon got 11 targets in his first game back last week and easily led the Browns in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards metric; as a result we project him to carry near 50 percent ownership on both sites. Pivoting to his teammate Corey Coleman, who leads the team in target market share the past four weeks, in this spot is also an option. Gordon is the top-rated wide receiver in Levitan’s Model for both sites and as detailed so eloquently by our own Ian Hartitz in this week’s WR Breakdown, Gordon’s spot this week is delicious:
Gordon accomplished all this against Casey Hayward, PFF’s No. 1 cornerback, who said afterwards that Gordon was his “toughest matchup all year.” Next up is a date with the Packers’ 29th-ranked defense in DVOA against WR1s that has allowed the most DraftKings PPG, highest Plus/Minus, and highest Consistency Rating to opposing wide receiver units this season (per our Trends tool).
Njoku ranks third in the Browns target market share the past four weeks (12.88 percent) and ranks second in opportunities inside the 10-yard line. Njoku has 10 total targets and eight catches in the past two games and is coming off the best performance of his career (4 catches, 74 yards, and a TD).
Nelson, who was priced as high as $8,100 on DraftKings this season, has seen his salary nearly sliced in half since Brett Hundley took over as starting quarterback in Green Bay. On the bright side, Nelson was targeted more than Davante Adams for the first time in four weeks last week, and he has climbed to second on the team in target market share (21.5 percent) during that time frame. Nelson also had more than half of the Packers’ Air Yards last week (54 percent) and has seen a total of 19 targets in the past three games.
