The PGA TOUR is trekking across the country to begin its four-week stay in the Sunshine State. After back-to-back Elevated Events the last two weeks and with two more huge tournaments coming up in the next two weeks, this week’s tournament is caught in between. Most of the biggest names in golf will be taking a breather this week before returning for the Arnold Palmer Invitational next week and THE PLAYERS Championship the week after that.
While it does lack a little in star power, this week does provide players with a unique opportunity and a unique challenge. The opportunity is for some of the lesser-known players to step up and deliver big fantasy weeks and break through for a win, but the challenge is that they’ll have to step into the spotlight on one of the hardest courses on the regular PGA TOUR schedule.
For more details on the course and what stats to look for, check out the Stats Preview from Matt Vincenzi.
The field is led by Sungjae Im and Billy Horschel, who are the only two players in the top 20 in the Official Word Golf Rankings expected to play. Last year’s runner-up, Shane Lowry joins Im as the two players with salaries over $10K, while Chris Kirk and Horschel are the only other options with salaries of at least $9.5K. There should be plenty of salary flexibility with the lack of big stars, but finding value and leverage all across the salary spectrum will be the key to GPP success.
In this post, we try to focus on players who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding these high-leverage plays with low ownership are critical for GPP lineups. For cash game help, Landon Silinsky has you covered in his weekly picks, but in this post, we’re looking for ways to go against the grain and take advantage of players who most fantasy players won’t be watching as closely.
Since these are GPP picks, we also can accept a little more risk if it raises the ceiling of the lineup. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownerships create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that usually lead to large-field success.
This weekly post focuses on players who are strong plays in GPP contests. These contests usually have lots of entries and pay out big prizes to the top few percent. One example is the DraftKings $1M Pitch + Putt, which pays out $250K to first place. In large contests like this one, it is critical to try and target players who have a chance to outperform salary expectations and come with low projected ownership.
The players highlighted will be good options if they deliver in all formats, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being the safest plays. Safety and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important. On the other hand, GPPs call for high-risk, high-reward options with high ceilings and low projected ownership. To find specific guidance for all the different kinds of contests, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A couple of key new stats to specifically use for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be extremely volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Chris Kirk $9,900
With so much projected ownership in the two big names at the top of the salary structure, Kirk offers a chance to get some leverage and save salary to spend in other spots. He has a 16% projected ownership which is eighth in the field and lags far behind Lowry’s (23.4%) and Im’s (38.1%) projected ownership.
Kirk’s lower ownership is enough to put him in the top 10 in SimLeverage in the field since he has the sixth-highest Perfect% in the field. He also ranks sixth in the entire field in both Median and Ceiling Projections and brings the second-highest Leverage of all players over $9K since his ceiling outpaces his expected ownership by such a significant margin.
According to his Vegas odds, only three players have a better chance than Kirk to win the tournament, and only three players have better top-10 odds as well.
Kirk’s career history at PGA National is mixed if you take a look back all the way to his first appearance in 2011. He has made the cut in seven of his 11 career appearances but with only three top-25 finishes. Two of those strong finishes came in the past two years, including a personal-best T7 last season. He started that tournament on fire with a 65-68 before fading a bit on the weekend, including a triple-bogey in the Bear Trap, which dropped him from contention on Sunday.
In his most recent event, Kirk missed the cut in Phoenix before sitting out The Genesis. Those results keep him a little off the radar, but he started 2023 hot with a pair of third-place finishes at the Sony Open in Hawaii and The American Express.
Kirk is typically a shotmaker extraordinaire, and his style should fit the course pretty well. He hasn’t won on the PGA TOUR since 2015, but we’ve seen veteran players get hot and return to glory. Kirk came close earlier this year, and if his ownership is at this level, he could end up offering great leverage.
Min Woo Lee $9,400
Lee has the second-highest Perfect% in the entire field. That means only Im has a better chance, according to our sims, to be in the ideal lineup for this week. Since he only has the seventh-highest projected ownership at 16.7%, he brings the third-highest SimLeverage in the entire field.
He has the fifth-highest ceiling projection of all the players in the field and matches a field-leading six Pro Trends.
The reason Lee may be a little under-owned is that he’s not as well known as some of the other golfers in this price range. The 24-year-old from Australia has done most of his playing on the DP World Tour, where he already has two career victories, including one last summer at the Abrdn Scottish Open. While he hasn’t won since then, he has made eight straight cuts and finished in the top 15 in every single tournament. In his two most recent tournaments, he only lost in Abu Dhabi to Victor Perez by one stroke and then finished tied for 13th in the Hero Dubai Desert Classic, where Rory got the win.
Lee has played 21 PGA TOUR events in his career and is still in search of his first top 10. This will be his first visit to PGA National, but the courses on which he has had success are similar in many ways. While he is risky due to his unproven status on the PGA TOUR and at this track, he has the upside to claim the victory.
Given his potential, getting him at this ownership makes him a great GPP play at this price.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Adrian Meronk $8,300
Meronk is another player with who the public and especially casual golf fans, may be less familiar. He does have excellent potential, though, and has slightly more of a U.S. track record than Lee. Meronk brings the fourth-highest SimLeverage in the field since he’s in the top 10 in Perfect% but still is only attracting an 11% projected ownership.
He also has the third-highest Leverage in the field due to his high ceiling. In fact, he has the highest ceiling projection of any player with a salary of $9K or under. He has a slightly higher ceiling projection and Perfect% than Jhonattan Vegas, but Vegas is more expensive and expected to be much more highly owned, making Meronk the preferable GPP option.
Meronk became the first Polish golfer to win on the European Tour in July of last year when he claimed the Horizon Irish Open. He added another win in December at the ISPS Handa Australian Open, where he bested Adam Scott by five shots. Last week, Meronk bounced back from a 74 on Thursday with a 67 on Friday to make the cut and play the weekend at Riviera, finishing T45. It was his first made cut in five career PGA TOUR events and the first time any golfer from Poland made the cut in a PGA TOUR event.
Although he hasn’t had past experience on this course, Meronk has the ball-striking pedigree and creativity on approach to contend in his debut. Could we get another breakthrough for a European country just a year after Sepp Straka became the first Austrian to win a PGA TOUR event at the Honda? Meronk definitely brings that kind of ceiling and is going mostly overlooked in this price bracket.
Cameron Davis $8,100
Davis is usually a DFS darling who draws more ownership than he should, but that script is flipped this week. He’s actually projected to be extremely under-owned at only 5.3% projected ownership. He has the highest SimLeverage in the entire field and the second-highest Leverage as well.
The reason the public is passing on Davis is pretty easy to spot–he missed the cut in each of his three events in California after opening 2023 with a T32 in Hawaii. Davis started last week with an ugly 77 at Riviera and improved with a 71 on Friday but still fell well short of the cut line.
He has the potential to be a great play, though, if the switch from the West Coast to Florida and from Poa annua to Bermuda putting surfaces can jumpstart his game. He does have an excellent history at this event, making the cut in all three of his trips to PGA National, highlighted by a top-10 finish in 2020. He skipped this event last year but will hope it gets him back on track after a rocky start to 2023. If it does, he’ll end up being a great leverage play at this salary.
If you’re not ready to buy in on Davis’ bounceback that the projections and sims think is coming, Ben Griffin, Garrick Higgo and Christiaan Bezuidenhout are similarly priced players also expected to outperform expectations.
Using our PrizePicks promo code LABS ($100 sign-up bonus), you could bet CAm to finish under 70.5 strokes in Round 1 if you’re looking for more action.
Value PGA DFS Picks
Hayden Buckley $7,600
Of all the players under $8K, Buckley has by far the highest Perfect% and offers positive SimLeverage since he is only projected for 10.8% ownership, which is just the seventh-highest of players under $8K.
Buckley has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all the players in the entire field and brings the second-highest ceiling projection and median projection of all players under $8K. He should be a good value play overall and a great target for GPP when compared to other golfers with similar salaries.
Buckley has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his past eight tournaments and should come in with some extra rest after missing the cut at The Genesis Invitational last week. He opened strong with a 69 but fell apart in Round 2 with a 78.
The 26-year-old will look to bounce back from that struggle and regain the form he showed earlier this season. He ranks fifth on the PGA TOUR in SG: Off The Tee with a nice blend of accuracy and distance. He also ranks in the top 50 in bogey avoidance with just 80 bogeys in 612 holes played (13.1%), which is a key stat on a difficult course like PGA National.
Buckley’s best career result came earlier this year at Waialae in the Sony Open, where he finished second to Si Woo Kim, and this track has some similarities in layout and design. Both are tight tracks, although PGA National plays much more difficult relative to par. Buckley is 1-for-2 making the cut in his career at PGA National, and he definitely has enough upside to be worth buying into this week.
Ryan Palmer $7,400
Palmer bounced back from a missed cut at Pebble Beach with a T42 at TPC Scottsdale before taking the last week off. The PGA TOUR veteran has a very strong course history at PGA National and is a solid option in this price range since he remains fairly reliable even at 46 years old.
He has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his four tournaments in 2023, with good results at the Sony Open and the WM Phoenix Open. In this price range, he’s one of the best options relative to public sentiment and is in the top four in Leverage and SimLeverage of all players under $8K due to his low 5.5% projected ownership.
Palmer has played this event on this course 13 times dating back to 2007. He has made the cut in 10 of those 13 appearances with four top 25s highlighted by a runner-up finish in 2014 when he lost in a four-man playoff to Russell Henley along with a young Rory McIlroy. Palmer finished T4 as recently as 2019 and has made the cut in three straight trips to PGA National.
If you’re looking for an experienced player in good form with a good shot to make the cut, Palmer is a solid play. Other leverage options to consider in this price range include Erik Van Rooyen, Brandon Wu, Davis Riley, and Harry Hall.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Andrew Novak $6,700
Novak has three top-20 finishes on the PGA TOUR this season and posted a T20 at Pebble Beach in his most recent event. If you’re buying the correlation to the Sony Open in Hawaii, Novak had a good showing there with a T12 highlighted by a sizzling 67-65 on the weekend.
He has the third-highest Perfect% of all players under $7K and only is projected for a 2.3% ownership. He also brings the second-highest ceiling projection of all players in that price range, behind only Erik Barnes.
Novak did play this event last season but missed the cut after making the cut in his debut on this track in 2018. If you do decide to take a flier under $7K, he’s one of the best options to consider.
Tyson Alexander $6,400
If you decide to go even cheaper, Alexander is a flier to consider. He is projected to have ownership under 1% but does show up in enough Optimal lineups to give him a Perfect% in the top five players under $6.5K.
The 34-year-old has had a long climb to the PGA TOUR and earned his card this year after winning his second straight Veritex Bank Championship in Arlington. He has made the most of his chance so far this season, with six made cuts in 10 events. He finished solo second at the Cadence Bank Houston Open last fall and made the cut at Pebble Beach in his most recent event. Those strong finishes were enough to make him one of the top alternates for last week’s Genesis Invitational, but he ended up not teeing it up.
For whatever it’s worth, Alexander should also be helped by a return to Florida, where he was born and went to college. At Florida, he played for his father, retired Florida Gators men’s coach Buddy Alexander. He’ll be a popular fan favorite if he can make the weekend, and getting him with such low ownership could definitely pay off if he can make the cut in his return home.
Other options I like under $7K include Akshay Bhatia, who has been very boom or bust but brings fun upside, and Matthias Schmid, who shows remarkably well in our sims.
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