It has been a wild start to 2024 on the PGA TOUR, with plenty of surprise winners on the West Coast swing. The first section of the season in California culminates with a stop at The Genesis Invitational, which will be the third Signature Event of the season.
As a signature event, the field is set at right around 70 of the top golfers in the world. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler leads the way, with Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland, Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay, and Collin Morikawa providing plenty of star power at the top of the pricing structure on DraftKings. Last week’s winner in Phoenix, Nick Taylor, will also be back in action this week along with early-season standouts Nicolai Hojgaard, Nick Dunlap, Grayson Murray, Mattieu Pavon, and Charley Hoffman, who fell just short last week at TPC Scottsdale.
Thankfully, we’re past the course rotation part of the season as well, so all rounds will be played at Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades, California, a neighborhood in the Westside region of Los Angeles. The course is one of the oldest and most well-known in the regular PGA TOUR rotation. It has hosted this event every year since 1999. Its two most recognizable holes are the drivable par-4 10th and the par-3 6th, which features a sand trap in the middle of the green. Overall, the course is known for tricky poa greens and very difficult rough, and after all the wet weather this past week, the course is expected to play long and difficult.
In this post each week, we’ll focus on players who are strong GPP options. That means they have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding this kind of high-leverage play is critical for GPP success. The picks here go against the grain to take advantage of players who may be overlooked and under-owned.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk if it raises the lineup’s ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that can lead to large-field success.
GPP contests are contests that have large numbers of entries and pay out huge prizes to the top few percent. This week, the largest GPP on DraftKings is the $1.2M Sand Trap, which awards $1,200,000.00 in total prizes, including $250,000 to first place.
The players highlighted below will be good options in all formats if they deliver, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being safe plays. Consistency and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important as in GPP tournaments. To find specific guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be highly volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Xander Schaufele $10,100
Our projections give Scottie Scheffler the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in the field, and Vegas gives him the best odds to win and finish in the top 10. No surprise there since he’s the World No. 1, and he’ll surely be a strong and popular option to build around. If you’re looking for a high-end pivot play with lower ownership, Xander Schauffele stands out.
Schauffele has the highest Perfect% in the field and the highest SimLeverage of the 10 options with salaries of $9,000 or more. He trails only Scheffler in median, ceiling, and floor projections, and he costs $1,400 less with about a 10% lower ownership projection.
In his career, Xander has made the cut in each of his six trips to Genesis with four top-15 finishes. He got the year off to a good start with top-10 finishes at The Sentry, The American Express, and the Farmers Insurance Open. He struggled to a T54 in the AT&T Pebble Beach but did shoot a 67 in the Third Round (which ended up being the final round).
Last week, Schauffele rested his wrist and didn’t have to battle the weather and crowds at TPC Scottsdale. As long as the injury isn’t an issue this week, he has a good chance to be in contention again on Sunday as one of the most consistent high-end performers every week.
Ludvig Aberg $9,200
I love the course history that both Max Homa and Collin Morikawa bring under $10,000, but Morikawa has a very high ownership projection, and Homa doesn’t show especially well in our projections. A bolder option in this price range that has strong projections and a lower ownership projection is Ludvig Aberg, who will be making his debut at this event.
Aberg is in the fourth-most optimal lineups in our sims, giving him the fourth-highest Perfect% in the field, just behind Schauffele, Morikawa, and Scheffer. With an ownership projection under 20%, Aberg has the second-highest SimLeverage of all the golfers priced at $9,000 or higher.
Although he doesn’t have any course history, he does have very impressive form. The 24-year-old Swede finished 2023 on fire. He won the European Masters in September as part of three straight top 10s, had a strong Ryder Cup debut, and then posted five straight top-13 finishes to conclude the season. That run culminated in his first PGA TOUR win at The RSM Classic.
He began 2024 with a couple of quiet tournaments in Hawaii but stormed back with a T9 at Torrey Pines and a solo second-place finish at Pebble Beach. Aberg has exceeded salary-based expectations in 12 straight DFS tournaments, and he has the kind of balanced and strong game that should play very well at this course. For GPPs, I’m good with taking the risk or rolling with him in his course debut.
Now in beta testing: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Tommy Fleetwood $8,800
Fleetwood has the highest SimLeverage of players priced over $8,000, partly due to a very low ownership projection of well under 10%. Fleetwood has the lowest ownership projection of all the options priced at over $8,500.
Possibly the reason that Fleetwood is being passed over is that he has played so little to start 2024. He finished an underwhelming T47 at The Sentry and T31 at Pebble Beach in the first two Signature Events, which are the only events he has played on the PGA TOUR since the TOUR Championship last August. However, he has had some very strong results on the DP World Tour since then, including four top-15 finishes and a win over Rory at the Dubai Invitational in January.
Fleetwood is still hunting his first PGA TOUR victory, but he has come very close numerous times. In his three trips to Riviera, he has made three cuts and finished a career-best T20 last year in this event.
Tom Kim $8,100
Kim claimed the win at the Shriners Chlidrens Open last fall, becoming the youngest player to win three PGA TOUR titles since Tiger Woods. Remarkably, he’s still only 21 years old as he makes his 49th PGA TOUR start this week. It will be his second Genesis Invitational after making the cut and finishing T45 last year.
While he hasn’t contended yet in 2024, he has the skills and mindset that Riviera demands. He opened last week with a 74 in Phoenix and looked in danger of missing the cut, but he caught fire with a 66-67-67 finish that’s enough to hint at a run of good form that could carry him through this week.
His ownership projection is under 6% this week, which puts him in the top 10 in SimLeverage.
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Value PGA DFS Picks
Jason Day $8,000
Day is another strong and long player who fits the profile at Riviera. His boom-or-bust results so far in 2024 make him risky for cash games but a solid option in GPP tournaments. Day has the fifth-highest SimLeverage in the field since his ownership projection is under 6%.
In 2023, Day turned his career back around and ultimately got wins at the Byron Nelson Championship last May and the unofficial Grant Thornton Invitational last December. Part of his pre-victory surge was his first career top-10 at Riviera.
Like Schauffele and Hovland, Day passed on the WM Phoenix Open last week and has rested since Pebble Beach. At that Signature Event, he finished T6 with a closing round 63 that might have gotten a lot more attention if Wyndham Clark hadn’t set the course record. Day will look to build on that round and his strong finish last year and reach his very high ceiling.
Chris Kirk $7,500
Kirk hasn’t played Riviera since 2016, and he missed the cut in three of his four career appearances. However, he comes back to this track after a great start to 2024. He has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all players with a salary of $7,500 or less and the second-highest SimLeverage in that price range as well.
In the first Signature Event of the year, Kirk beat an elite field to win The Sentry, and since then, he has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his three starts, including a T26 at Pebble Beach two weeks ago.
His numbers are very strong across the board, and he typically excels on courses like this one, including a win on a similar track at The Honda Classic last season.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Luke List $6,600
After making 11 straight cuts, List missed the cut last week at the WM Phoenix Open by just one stroke. The veteran will look to bounce back on a course where he has had some success. He made the cut and finished in the top 30 in four of the last six years at The Genesis, with a T15 in 2019 as his career best. Last year at this event, List dominated the field in SG: Ball Striking, gaining an impressive 13 strokes off the tee and on approach. He gave too many of those strokes back around the green, though, to contend.
List has the third-highest ceiling, median, and floor projection of all players under $7,000, with the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus and second-highest Pts/Sal of players in that price range. His ownership projection isn’t minuscule but is under 9%, which isn’t too bad for such a strong bargain play.
He won the Sanderson Farms Championship as part of those 11 straight made cuts and finished T26 just two weeks ago at Pebble Beach. His short-game struggles usually make him boom or bust, but for GPP contests, he’s worth a flier at this salary.
Kevin Yu $6,300
If you’re taking a shot at an ultra-cheap play this week, Yu is loaded with an interesting upside. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all players with salaries under $6,500. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and the highest Pts/Sal of the players in this price bracket.
Last week, Yu missed the cut on the number in Phoenix in what was basically a home game for the Arizona State alum. He was on a nice roll before that, though, with a T3 at The American Express and a T6 at the Farmers Insurance Open. He will look to bounce back in his first career appearance at The Genesis Invitational.
Even without a track record, I like the 25-year-old to be one of the best cheap plays on the board, and with the cut rules this week, I think he’s worth taking a flier on if you need the salary for the rest of your roster.
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