DFS

The FantasyLabs Weekly Recap for Friday 6/24

By Matthew Freedman @MattFtheOracle
Jun 24, 2016

General

– What Facebook Taught Me About DFS, by Bill Monighetti

If you blindly optimize a lineup on another site in the industry every day, you’re going to lose. If you hit ‘Optimize’ on OUR site using the same model every day without taking into account the nuances of that day’s slate, then you’re also going to lose. If you take a thoughtful approach and consider which factors are the most important given the matchups on a slate — and then you use our tools accordingly — you are putting yourself in a much better position to win.

For an unparalleled DFS edge, try our free Trends tool, where you can access our massive database of advanced data and leverage our premium exclusive metrics, such as Bargain Rating, Upside, Consistency, and Plus/Minus.

– FantasyLabs Podcast: DFS Is Not the Stock Market

Bryan Mears is joined by Matthew Freedman to discuss how the stock market is and isn’t related to DFS principles.

– Video: How to Transition From a Fish to a Shark, Part 2

In the second part of this series, Jay Persson walks through how to use FantasyLabs’ Player Models to improve your DFS game. Watch Part 1 here!

NFL

– Is the Average Depth of Target Metric Useful to DFS?, by Graham Barfield

So we know that aDOT isn’t inherently related to volume — but knowing how far downfield a receiver is targetedis useful. In fact, aDOT is predictive of one thing: Catch rate. Intuitively, this idea makes a lot of sense. The further down the field the ball is thrown, the less likely receivers are to catch it. For cash games, maybe it’s best to roster receivers who not only see a lot of opportunity but also have lower aDOTs. For guaranteed prize pools, we’re still looking for volume with wide receivers first, but we also want to give ourselves a wider range of outcomes. Thus, for GPPs perhaps we should take an extra peak at aDOT, since a lower catch rate is tolerable in the search for Upside.

Golf

– Video: 2016 Quicken Loans National Model Preview

Peter Jennings (CSURAM88) breaks down his personal model for this week’s Quicken Loans National event on DraftKings.

– Video: 2016 U.S. Open Lineup Review

Peter Jennings (CSURAM88) breaks down his lineup from the 2016 US Open on DraftKings.

– An Introduction to Non-Projection Metrics, by Colin Davy

In most sports, you want high-floor, low-variance players for cash games and high-ceiling, high-variance players for guaranteed prize pools. Your approaches to Consistency and Upside vary drastically dependent on the format — and those factors have nothing to do with projected points. In PGA, you have additional soft factors: Line movement, course fit, course history, etc. The best DFS players are able to consider such factors in the abstract and properly weight them. Sure, some of them might be already baked into projections, but long-term averages don’t necessarily say whether these factors hurt or help more in cash games or GPPs.

– Rickie Fowler and Weaker-Field Tournaments in PGA DFS, by Bryan Mears

Part of the fun of DFS is continually adapting to tournament strategy. I’ve been preaching the stars-and-scrubs gospel for a while now, and while I still firmly believe in it most weeks there is reason to doubt it for this week’s Quicken Loans National. The top golfers are likely still the best ‘values,’ but I think that the actual best VBRs — because of the strong correlation — are pretty spread out across tiers.

MLB

– MLB DFS Slate Breakdown: Friday 6/24, by John Daigle

Minus his recent performance against Baltimore in which he allowed four home runs, Sanchez hasn’t had many blips in Consistency. And even in allowing six runs that evening, his seven strikeouts prevented the performance from being recorded as a Dud. In turn, his Dud rate this season remains the lowest among pitchers in this slate. However, he’s seen a $4,200 Salary Change at DraftKings in the last month, which has historically led to a -2.52 Plus/Minus. Fortunately, he still has a 98 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel.

– MLB DFS Data Dive: Friday 6/24, by J.J. Calle

That is not a typo. O’Brien claims the highest wOBA (.617), ISO (.765), slugging percentage, and strikeouts per at-bat (0.45) rate on the slate. Sample size is a factor, as O’Brien’s nine starts over the past 15 days matches his game total from the past 12 months. Plopping him into Coors Field against a rookie left-handed pitcher could be the perfect storm. At his price on FanDuel ($3,100), O’Brien will likely be present in many lineups. He also leads the league in overall swing rate, for both pitches inside and outside the strike zone, per FanGraphs. If you roster him tonight, expect to know the result of his at-bat within four pitches.

– Further to the Matter of Batter Salary Sweet Spots, by Matthew Freedman

Knowing the salary sweet spots for FanDuel and DraftKings batters is great — but the edge it provides in any given slate is relatively small. Over the long run, you could be massively profitable if you consistently built your lineups so as to maximize the number of times you roster players located in the salary sweet spots. The problem, however, is that you need to have a long-term vision in order to focus on the incremental benefits of the edge, because in any given slate and for any given player you can always find reasons to roster someone from a suboptimal salary tier instead of someone from an ideal tier.

– DraftKings Salaries and Finding the Batting Sweet Spot, by Matthew Freedman

Of all the tiers, the grouping of dirt-cheap batters has by far the highest Plus/Minus and almost the highest Consistency. I probably don’t need to say this, but the production this tier affords clearly suggests that people should heavily employ a stars-and-scrubs approach to lineup construction at DraftKings. At DraftKings, when you pay down for batters you are simply doing what the data suggests that you should do. You are making the optimal decision. Paying down isn’t a strategy or a sacrifice. It’s a strong tactic that targets the batters who historically have provided the most production on a per-dollar basis.

– MLB Trend Testing: Cash-Game Aces, by Bill Monighetti

What are we looking for in a safe pitcher? On FanDuel, we want one who is favored to win. The 12-point bonus pitchers are awarded for winning a game is crucial and we want to put ourselves in the best possible position to capitalize. We’ll also want to do our best to minimize variance. Here, I’ll target pitchers who throw a high percentage of strikes, which may make them less prone to a big inning due to sloppy control. Finally, we want strikeouts, so I’m going back to K Prediction once again.

– MLB DFS Recent Form Report: Monday 6/20, by Kelly McCann

Arrieta has seen recent increases in his average batted-ball distance allowed, exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage. In Jake’s last five starts, his average points per game on FanDuel has decreased by 8.6 points. Is there cause to be concerned about Arrieta? The Trends tool tells us that pitchers with analogous increases in both batted-ball distance allowed and hard-hit percentage have experienced a slightly negative Plus/Minus.