This week, we published a lot of content that will be applicable for a while. Within this FantasyLabs Friday Recap, you can find links to all of that content, for your weekend reading pleasure.
General
– Quantum Physics, Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle, and DFS Strategy, by Bryan Mears
So what’s the position and momentum that’s impossible to define in DFS? I believe that it’s game theory. By virtue of the game’s zero-sum nature, the game theory that participants employ is going to change continually as people find different edges. Finding the “edge” is much like locating our physics particle: The moment you define it, it’s probably gone.
NFL
– Are You the DFS Equivalent of the Dallas Cowboys?, by Matthew Freedman
For a lot of DFS players, it’s easy to commit what I am going to call “The Dallas Cowboys Fallacy.” They ignore that they are essentially .500 players. They focus only on the instances in which they have done well. They decide that, even though they have had success in just one slate recently, the one winning slate is representative of who they truly are as DFS players. I’m sure that I don’t need to tell you this, but .500 players have a particular name in DFS: Losers.
PGA
– Video: Wells Fargo Championship Model Preview
Peter Jennings (CSURAM88) walks through his personal model for this week’s 2016 Wells Fargo Championship on DraftKings.
– Video: PGA Lineup Review for the Zurich Classic of New Orleans
Peter Jennings (CSURAM88) breaks down his PGA lineup for the Zurich Classic of New Orleans.
– The Daily Fantasy Sports Roundtable: #14 – Strokes Gained
Matthew Freedman is joined by Christian Drappi and Colin Davy, who discuss the relevance of strokes gained to PGA DFS.
– The Myth of the Specialist, by Colin Davy
PGA is in the analytics dark ages relative to the other sports. As a result, there’s been a proliferation of analysis that relies on “key statistics” where little-to-no leg work has been done showing the out-of-sample predictive value of those statistics. I’m not saying that metrics like long-term AdjRd or SG:T2G will have no future predictive value, but rather that in the absence of understanding how predictive each of the generally used stats are, they all get mashed together and get treated interchangeably. That can have some major consequences for your research process.
– The PGA Process: The Zurich Classic of New Orleans Review, by Graham Barfield
To be clear, I’m not saying that the high-priced chalk is always an automatic fade at every event. Every PGA event is like a snowflake and must be researched as such. Still, knowing that expected lineup percentage is going to flow towards one golfer and leveraging your lineup with the lower-rostered option is the sharper long-term play, especially in tournaments.
MLB
– The Sports Geek Breaks Down $19.5k Night in MLB
Kevin “The Sports Geek” breaks down his $19.5k night in MLB DFS.
– The Daily Fantasy Flex, MLB: 5/6/16 Main Slate
Bryan Mears and Peter Jennings (CSURAM88) break down the 5/6/16 MLB DFS main slate.
– MLB Plays of the Day: 5/6/16, Main Slate
I’m pulling a Brandon Hopper and recommending the same guy two days in a row, Alex Presley, who is facing Reds right-hander Tim Adleman. And let’s talk about Adleman. This guy is a 28-year-old rookie who has appeared in one game. His Twitter handle is literally @ImYourTA. If you look at his Twitter page, he doesn’t even look like an athlete, much less a guy who should be an MLB starting pitcher. The only pitcher who has a lower salary on DraftKings is Cory Rasmus. Sorry, Adleman, you’re not my TA.
– MLB DFS 5/6/16 Slate Breakdown, by John Daigle
“Thor” is no Jacob deGrom. He’s not currently struggling with any velocity issues — in fact, his average speed of 97.2 mph over the last two weeks is a mirror-image of his average over the past year — and he’s still seemingly un-hittable (his batted-ball distance differential allowed is somehow -16 feet). But more importantly, he won’t let you down against the Padres. With 11 Pro Trends tonight, his 10.5 SO/9 rate is sure to deliver any retribution if still feeling the effects from rostering deGrom last night. San Diego, after all, still has a terrible .277 wOBA versus right-handed pitching this season.
– The Batter’s Vegas Movement Matrix, by Bryan Mears
The movement you want to focus on is at the upper range. When a team is already projected for a lot of runs, positive line movement has shown to be really valuable, especially as you get into the 5.0-projected-runs territory. The two takeaways for me are A) ride the Vegas lines, and B) don’t get fooled by line increases for low-projected teams.
– State of the Stacks, Vol. 2, by Mitchell Block
Raise your hand if a Blue Jays stack has cratered a lineup of yours recently. And, yeah, I’m reaching for the sky with you. Joey Bats and company have had a rough go of it for large stretches of this season, disappointing on a number of occasions. My hesitancy regarding this team personally is what ultimately lead me to push forward with the idea of profiling them. Knowing that I’ve been burned and want to shy away from them means that there are probably others who have a similar sense of hesitancy about this team.
– On The Contrary: Chris Rusin Is (At Least) Worth A Look, by Brandon Hopper
Chris Rusin of the Colorado Rockies. I said it. He’s certainly not a sexy play today. I doubt that you’ll read any other articles about why you should roster him (or at least give it consideration). Per our Trends tool, one can see that the average underdog pitcher with a price comparable to Rusin’s tends to do well when playing in a friendly park. The trend should be treated cautiously because of it’s small sample size, but given the Upside of hitting on a potential Black Swan pitcher likely to be rostered in very few lineups, this trend also deserves attention.
– MLB Trend Testing: Velocity and Vegas, by Bill Monighetti
My goal with this week’s trend was to combine one of our new advanced stats with a filter that has traditionally brought positive results in order to hopefully achieve a high Plus/Minus while using some of our cutting-edge data. I’m looking at pitchers on FanDuel, so for my “traditionally positive” filter, I’m going to match pitchers whose team is favored. Wins are pretty heavily weighted on FanDuel, so this is always a good place to start. Using our advanced stat filters, I’m also going to match pitchers whose average velocity is up more than 0.5 mph over the past 15 days.
– MLB Recent Form Report: 5/2/16, by Bill Monighetti
What is concerning to me is that Keuchel is literally a different pitcher so far in 2016. During his breakout 2014 and 2015 campaigns, he primarily relied on his two-seam fastball, while mixing in a slider and a four-seamer. In 2016, he has been throwing his two-seamer much less frequently and it has been less effective. Per FanGraphs, its movement score is down, it is staying in the zone much more often (58 percent vs 44 percent last year) and it is leading to ground balls only 48 percent of the time this year versus an elite 76-percent clip last season.
– Charlize Theron, Fantasy Debt, and the Proper Valuation of Designated Hitters, by Matthew Freedman
Designated hitters are like the Charlize Therons of MLB DFS. They are sexy and generally they can smash — but from a DFS perspective their offenses aren’t really impressive. They’re undisputed sources of fantasy debt, in that they stimulate the economies of their offenses — their teammates tend to accumulate additional raw production because of them — but, as I pointed out in yesterday’s Trend of the Day, American League hitters tend to underperform in DFS contexts (despite the presence of DHs in their lineups).
NBA
– Postseason NBA DFS, 10 Rules for Surviving, and Saying Goodbye With “Lycidas,” by Matthew Freedman
You know that you don’t actually need to be playing NBA DFS at this point of the year, right? It will come around again. Just because your ability to play NBA DFS will soon be gone, that doesn’t mean that you need to continue to play it. Don’t be a victim of the ultimatum fallacy. DFS exists to serve you, not vice versa. If you believe that you don’t have an edge in the postseason NBA DFS slates, don’t feel the need to continue playing them. That NBA DFS is almost over shouldn’t factor into your decision.
Trends
– MLB 5/2/16: Pitchers Who Are Favorites With a Below-Average K/9, by Jonathan Cabezas
– MLB 5/3/16: High Pro-Trend National League Batters, by Matthew Freedman
– MLB 5/4/16: Drew Smyly on FanDuel, by Bryan Mears
– MLB 5/5/16: Rockies in a Pitcher’s Park, by Bryan Mears
– MLB 5/6/16: Slumping $10,000 Pitchers, by Mitchell Block
