This week, we published a lot of content that will be applicable for a while. Within this FantasyLabs Friday Recap, you can find links to all of that content, for your weekend reading pleasure.
General
– Video: How to Use the FantasyLabs Lineup Builder/Optimizer
The FantasyLabs Lineup Builder/Optimizer can be used in a variety of ways. In this video, Jonathan Bales shares his DOs and DON’Ts for using the daily fantasy tool.
– Toward a Theory of DFS Arbitrage, by Matthew Freedman
Here’s the DFS spread that I think needs to be arbitraged the most: The difference between the percentage of lineups in which a player will be rostered and the percentage odds that the player meets (or exceeds) a certain salary-based threshold. In general the basic idea is that, if the market of DFS players is putting a guy in five percent of tournament lineups but he really has a 20 percent chance of achieving proper value, then there’s a 15 percent spread there that we need A) to know about and B) to trade hard.
– A Word (or 1,140 Words) on Contrarianism, by Matthew Freedman
Any given contrarian act is highly likely to have negative consequences. The contrarian is less focused on the outcome of one act and more focused on the positive results that a thorough and consistent program of contrarianism eventually yields. We’re not contrarian for the mere sake of being contrarian. That would be stupid. A contrarian knows that contrarianism isn’t its own prize. Contrarianism is the means, not the end.
PGA
– Video: The AT&T Byron Nelson Championship Model Preview
Watch as Peter Jennings (CSURAM88) breaks down his personal model for this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson Championship.
– Video: PGA Lineup Review for The Players Championship 2016
Peter Jennings (CSURAM88) breaks down his PGA lineup for The Players Championship 2016.
– Final Thoughts on Specialists and Randomness, by Colin Davy
The specialist approach says that you should just look at who does better or worse on Randomness Fairy courses in comparison to regular courses. With this approach, you would certainly find golfers who did better and/or worse on these courses. But here’s the million-dollar question: If a golfer does better on Randomness Fairy courses, is it because he has that mental edge? — or was he just lucky? From the data alone, there’s no way to tell the difference.
MLB
– Video: FanDuel Playboy Qualifier Lineup Review
Jonathan Bales took down the FanDuel Playboy Championship Qualifier on May 18th. He does a video breakdown of his winning lineup and how he used FantasyLabs to build it.
– The Daily Fantasy Flex, MLB: 5/20/16 Main Slate
Jay Persson and Peter Jennings (CSURAM88) break down the 5/20/16 MLB DFS main slate.
– MLB Plays of the Day: 5/20/16, Main Slate
Over his young career, Aaron Sanchez has dominated right-handed batters to the tune of a .221 wOBA and 3.16 xFIP. He is also excellent at limiting righty power, as he has allowed one (ONE!) measly home run over 92.1 career innings to batters of that handedness. Plus, the Twins lineup hoards righty batters as if they were an endangered species.
– MLB DFS 5/20/16 Slate Breakdown, by John Daigle
I don’t expect you to know (or even care) about anyone in the Phillies rotation. But Aaron Nola isn’t just a “dumpster dive” or contrarian option. He’s arguably similar to Jake Arrieta, in that they both have 80 percent Consistency over their last five starts. The Braves have only an average strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching, but they’re still the only team with an Isolated Power (ISO) below .100. Their implied total has also sunk 0.2 runs since initially opening.
– Video: How to Build a Cash Game Lineup for MLB DFS
In this video, Jay Persson breaks down the process of building a cash game lineup for MLB DFS.
– Are Premium-Priced Players Who Lack Elite Power Worth the Cost?, by Mitchell Block
So it’s pretty clear. Rostering a player with elite power certainly makes sense in a vacuum . . . but DFS doesn’t occur in a vacuum. It occurs in a market. The public is generally drawn to the players with elite power. They are expected to do better than the players without power. As a result, premium-priced power hitters usually are rostered in an inflated percentage of tournament lineups, which in turn reduces the benefit they add to lineups, particularly in large tournaments in which more than a quarter of the field might share a player in common.
– State of the Stacks, Vol. 4, by Mitchell Block
Arizona has four players with a Hard-Hit Differential Score in the 87th percentile and three in the 95th percentile. Additionally, Jean Segura, Chris Herrmann, and Yasmany Tomas have impressive Distance Differential Scores right now. Whenever Herrmann is active this week, he should be a part of a quality stack with Segura, Lamb, Tomas, and the always dangerous Paul Goldschmidt.
– Narrative Calle: MLB Birthdays, by J.J. Calle
Far too often, we assume that a player’s performance is affected by perceived intrinsic motivations or external factors — such as a birthday. Undoubtedly, a birthday is a significant milestone. (It means that death is one year inevitably closer.) At FantasyLabs, we possess the data necessary to backtest the birthday narrative. It’s not easy as selecting a Narrative filter in the Trends tool, but we can do it.
– MLB Trend Testing: Fishing For Homers, by Bill Monighetti
This week, I am doubling up on batter splits. I’m going to be looking for players who A) have a high ISO split and B) are playing in a ballpark that gives a boost to batters of their handedness. In other words, we’re fishing for homeruns. Sometimes this trend is going to lead to homers and other times it’s going to lead to zeros. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. It just means that this trend is best used for tournaments.
– MLB Recent Form Report: 5/16/16, by Bill Monighetti
As he hasn’t lasted past the sixth inning in any of his 2016 starts, it’s easy to forget that Michael Pineda has previously been a pretty popular DFS play. This season, his earned run average is nearly two runs higher than it was last season. He has won only once in seven tries. Pineda’s advanced stats tell a somewhat different story though.
Trends
– MLB 5/16/16: Pitchers Facing Kansas City, by Bill Monighetti
– MLB 5/17/16: FanDuel Pitchers Who Throw a Lot of Innings (and Win), by Matthew Freedman
– MLB 5/18/16: Strikeout Pitchers Who Keep the Ball on the Ground, by Jay Persson
– MLB 5/19/16: K Predictor on DraftKings vs. FanDuel, by Bryan Mears
– MLB 5/20/16: Cheap Pitchers Who are Favorites, by Mitchell Block
