This week, we published a lot of content that will be applicable for a while. Within this FantasyLabs Friday Recap, you can find links to all of that content, for your weekend reading pleasure.
General
– What is a Successful Marriage? — And What is “Success”?, by Matthew Freedman
Over the short-term, what is DFS success? Never losing but never adding to your bankroll? Losing your bankroll and then dominating with your second bankroll? Steadily building a bankroll through cash game victories but never risking any money in tournaments? Winning a tournament through sound strategy and then losing all of your tournament winnings through persistent bad luck?
– Birthdays, 4/20, and Purple Numbers That Mean Nothing, by Matthew Freedman
In sports, fantasy sports, and DFS, a lot of people assign significance to numbers that mean nothing. OK, they mean “something” — but they don’t mean what a lot of people think that they mean. They don’t signify accurately. Basically, I’m saying something very similar to what Colin Davy said in his first FL piece: The numbers that some people think are useful aren’t especially useful. While people believe that 1999 is actually important, write a song about 1999 that leverages those beliefs — and then make a lot of money.
– Pearl Jam, The Missing Dollar Riddle, and The Double-Counting Error, by Matthew Freedman
You need to be highly careful not to count numbers twice (or thrice). What do I mean by counting twice? Weighted On-Base Average and Isolated Power are both valuable sabermetric baseball statistics. Although they are different — wOBA is an adjusted catch-all statistic that takes into account each type of batting event, whereas ISO a more of a measure of raw power — the truth is that the metrics have significant overlap in that they both take into account (albeit in different ways) singles, doubles, triples, and home runs.
PGA
– Video: DraftKings Fantasy Golf World Championship Qualifier Winning Lineup Review
Peter Jennings (CSURAM88) breaks down his winning lineup in last week’s DraftKings Fantasy Golf World Championship Qualifier.
– Video: Introducing The Sports Geek PGA Pro Model
We’ve added a new Pro Model in our PGA Player Models, built by Kevin The Sports Geek.
– Key PGA Stats for Independently Deriving Value, by Colin Davy
In the last article we went over some of the systematic biases in Vegas odds-based pricing and showed that upside is a major component of each player’s DraftKings price. It follows that a good cash game strategy would be to identify golfers who may not have upside but have good average outcomes. Such golfers could serve as the bedrock of value in PGA lineups. As it turns out, the key PGA stats I’ve identified to find such golfers aren’t much different from what we usually emphasize week to week.
MLB
– The Daily Fantasy Flex, MLB: 4/22/16 Main Slate
Peter Jennings and Jay Persson break down the 4/22/16 MLB DFS main slate.
– MLB Plays of the Day: 4/22/16, Main Slate
In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers will use our Trends and Player Models tools to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s main slate.
– MLB DFS 4/22/16 Slate Breakdown, by John Daigle
Jon Lester’s 9.18 SO/9 rate trails only Jon Gray in tonight’s slate. With the highest moneyline (-200) among starting pitchers, he can easily be considered the top cash option among tonight’s plethora of available pitchers. Additionally, note his minuscule batted-ball distance allowed of 176 feet over his last two starts.
– Video: FantasyLabs Model Accuracy and Advanced MLB Stats
We have some additions to our models and MLB player cards. Jonathan Bales does a quick video showing off the new way(s) to assess your model’s accuracy.
– Video: Transitioning to MLB DFS
Adam Levitan talks about how to transition to daily fantasy baseball and discusses the FantasyLabs multi-lineup tool.
– Video: Building a Lineup for the DraftKings Fantasy Baseball Qualifier
The Sports Geek breaks down how he uses FantasyLabs to build a lineup for the DraftKings Fantasy Baseball Qualifier.
– Video: Building Contrarian MLB DFS Tournament Lineups
In this video, Jay breaks down how to build and enter contrarian tournament lineups from Wednesday, 4/20.
– The Daily Fantasy Sports Roundtable: #12 – NBA to MLB
Matthew Freedman is joined by Ricky Sanders, John Daigle, and Peter Jennings, who discuss the transition from NBA to MLB DFS.
– Logan Forsythe and Finding a Contrarian MLB Model, by Kelly McCann
I built a model ignoring the conventional metrics like wOBA and ISO. Opponent’s WHIP or Strikeout Percentile? I don’t care. Everybody is using this stuff, and I don’t want to be like everybody. Everybody can see Bryce Harper and David Ortiz destroy right-handed pitching with wOBAs above .400 and ISOs above .300, but what can’t they see? I want me some Hard-Hit Differential, Distance Differential, Exit Velocity Differential, Groundball Score, and throw in some Park Factor.
– How Your Little League Coach Misled You, by Brandon Hopper
The only extra-base hits that come from ground balls are the ones that are hit sharply down the line and a batter is hustling out of the box (because that happens so often). Fly balls are where it’s at, despite what Coach Hit-It-On-The-Ground told you. They result in the lowest batting average, but the highest ISO by far and a strong wOBA, too. The upside is in the air (pun intended).
– Narrative Calle: Bobbleheads, by J.J. Calle
Does a player routinely exceed expected value on their bobblehead day? Perhaps. Do they exceed value because it’s their bobblehead day Based on the limited sample, it appears bobblehead games have historically yielded substantial value. Those games also coincide with attractive spots in the batting order, high-priced batters, and at least 4.0 implied runs.
– MLB Trend Testing: Groundball Pitchers, High Park Factor, by Bill Monighetti
On FanDuel especially, where there is only one pitcher spot per lineup, going safe at pitcher is essential. One way of attempting to be safe would be to maximize win probability and minimize runs against. There’s more than one way to do this, but with this trend I looked for groundball pitchers playing in pitcher’s parks.
– MLB Recent Form Report: 4/18/16, by Bill Monighetti
The one player who sticks out here is Giancarlo Stanton, whose average distance on the year at the time of this writing is just 196 feet. For Stanton, this may be an April thing. Looking at his past results in games where his average batted-ball distance coming into the game was less than 200 feet, each of the 12 matches occurred in April of 2015 or April of 2016. The sample size is small, which suggests his slumps tend not to linger. Still, until he starts getting some distance on the ball, Stanton may be a hitter you continue to fade.
NBA
– The Daily Fantasy Flex, NBA: 4/22/16 Slate Breakdown
Jay Persson, Justin Phan, and John Daigle break down the 4/22/16 NBA DFS slate.
Trends
– MLB 4/18/16: Searching For Unlucky Hitters, by Jonathan Cabezas
– MLB 4/19/16: DraftKings Mid-Priced Pro Trend Pitchers, by Matthew Freedman
– MLB 4/20/16: Elite Power Hitters Becoming More Elite, by Bryan Mears
– MLB 4/21/16: Getting the Most Out of an Expensive Pitcher, by Jay Persson
– MLB 4/22/16: Rostering Batters in a Pitcher’s Park, by Mitchell Block
