This week, we published a lot of content that will be applicable for a while. Within this FantasyLabs Friday Recap, you can find links to all of that content, for your weekend reading pleasure.
General
– Tutorial: Setting Up Push Notifications for Any Player
Bryan Mears shows how to use FantasyLabs’ Lineup tools to set up push notifications for any player.
– Stephen Greenblatt, New Historicism, and DFS Context, by Matthew Freedman
In DFS, we should focus on context in order to find players positioned to benefit from luck — from the alignment of the stars of umpire, price, park, and weather. On July 21 of last year, when Shin-Soo Choo (salaried at $3,900), had 43 DraftKings points, it probably wasn’t just because he had an outstanding game. Rather, Choo’s performance might’ve been the direct result of Tom Hallion, Coors Field, and near-perfect weather. At least that’s what a New Historicist would suggest . . . or at least imply.
– Harold Bloom, The Anxiety of Influence, and Making Your Own DFS Decisions, by Matthew Freedman
Many people suffer from an anxiety of influence, reading work from and using the tools of many sites on a daily basis. For some, the influence of these DFS sites is downright deleterious. They create noise that prevents you from finding the signal for yourself. They situate you in a stone courtyard enclosed by ivy-covered walls. In such a place, you can convince yourself that all you need you already have.
– Katniss Everdeen vs. Legolas: Randomness, Accuracy, and Precision in DFS, by Matthew Freedman
To be more than a random DFS player, to hit DFS bullseyes that actually mean something, one must become accurate and precise through a constant process of practice. One must not become overconfident when one hits bullseyes. One must continue to focus on consistency and reliability so that more high-quality shots hit the mark. Hitting the bullseye is irrelevant. It’s knowing how to hit the center of the mark that matters.
PGA
– FantasyLabs PGA User Wins $1,000,000 on DraftKings
We’re always glad to hear when a FantasyLabs user wins money and, well, $1,000,000 isn’t too shabby. User “bidle,” who is new to DFS and relied on FantasyLabs to create his lineups, took top prize — good for a cool mil — in the DraftKings PGA Millionaire Maker contest for the Masters last week.
– Video: Masters Thunderdome Lineup Review from CSURAM88
FantasyLabs co-founder Peter Jennings (CSURAM88) breaks down his second-place finish in the DraftKings Thunderdome contest for the Masters.
– The Limitations of PGA Vegas Odds, by Colin Davy
PGA Vegas odds to win are biased toward players with high upside and are not indicative of average outcome. That makes Vegas odds a poor choice in finding high-value, low-upside players, who are staples of cash games. DraftKings prices correlate very strongly with odds to win, and odds to win is measured by some combination of average score and upside. However, for cash games, we want something very different: minimal upside, high average score.
– The PGA Process: The Masters Review, by Graham Barfield
I mentioned how randomness affects outcomes at the beginning of this article, so consider this: Rory went birdie-free in Round 3 and had two eagle putts from within 15-feet on Sunday. If he makes one or two birdies and one less bogey to card a 74 in Round 3 and makes both eagle putts on Sunday, he’s right in the thick of things. I grant you, that is a lot of “ifs” but the outcome is still entirely plausible. Rory McIlroy, like Danny Willett, would have been very close to stealing a Masters win after Jordan Spieth’s meltdown.
MLB
– The Daily Fantasy Flex, MLB: 4/15/16 Main Slate
Peter Jennings and Jay Persson break down the 4/15/16 MLB DFS main slate.
– MLB DFS 4/15/16 Slate Breakdown, by John Daigle
I haven’t the slightest clue what Zack Greinke’s ownership will be given his performance in his first two starts, but this matchup against the Padres is clearly better than facing the Cubs or Rockies. San Diego has also recorded the second-highest K% vs. RHP this season. Focus on the fact that Greinke is projected to allow only 3.1 runs.
– MLB DFS: Stacks of the Day, 4/15/16, by Mitchell Block
Watching Mike Pelfrey try to get major-league hitters out is just painful. He just doesn’t possess the stuff to be a starter and it shows. With a WHIP over 1.5 and a K/9 under 5.0, he simply struggles to get batters out. Targeting a pitcher who’s accustomed to allowing an abundance of base runners is never a bad idea in general, as consistently doing so is a perfect recipe for a big inning eventually. Enter the Astros.
– Why Umpires Deserve Our DFS Love, by Brandon Hopper
One of the most important, and possibly most overlooked, features FL has is umpire data. Play around with the Trends page and you’ll quickly stumble upon intriguing finds. Pitchers favored by Vegas and projected to record at least six strikeouts are lethal when combined with the right umpire behind the dish.
– Fading Vegas Early in the MLB Season, by John Quaile
Now that we know that Vegas doesn’t entirely get it right early in the season, we can really exploit it in DFS and especially in GPPs. We know that players on teams that have low projected team totals, do not really perform as bad as Vegas thinks early in the season. We also know that players on these teams are going to come with low ownership. That’s GIGANTIC for GPPs. Early in the season, it’s a very +EV play to target players on teams with unfavorable Vegas numbers. It’s actually the perfect storm for MLB DFS in the early months of the season.
– MLB Trend Testing: Attacking Groundball Pitchers with Speed, by Bill Monighetti
Targeting power hitters against groundball pitchers has not been an especially effective strategy in MLB DFS over the past couple of seasons. That doesn’t necessarily mean we should leave these pitchers alone, particularly in cash games. This week, I wanted to take a look at matchups where base-stealers faced off against groundball pitchers.
– MLB Recent Form Report – 4/11/16, by Bill Monighetti
Troy Tulowitzki has been hitting the ball hard all season. It’s pretty unfathomable then that, at the time of this writing, Tulo has scored 6.8 fantasy points per game BELOW expectations. Looking at his raw stats, his BABIP of .160 makes sense. Tulo generally runs high in this category, posting .330-plus the past three seasons. In other words, as long as he continues hitting the ball hard, fantasy goodness is almost sure to follow, making him an attractive buy-low candidate at his current price tag.
NBA
– The Daily Fantasy Sports Roundtable: #11 – Postseason NBA
Matthew Freedman is joined by Chris Raybon, Matt LaMarca, and Peter Jennings, who discuss postseason NBA DFS.
Trends
– MLB 4/11/16: Cheap DraftKings Leadoff Hitters with a Negative wOBA Diff, by Jonathan Cabezas
– MLB 4/12/16: FanDuel Bottom-Half Batters Who Might Not Suck, by Matthew Freedman
– MLB 4/14/16: Miguel Cabrera in Day Games, by Bryan Mears
– MLB 4/15/16: Batters with a High Hard-Hit Differential in a Pitcher’s Ballpark, by Mitchell Block
– NBA 4/12/16: Late-Season Minutes Increases, by Mitchell Block
– NBA 4/13/16: All About Kobe, by Bill Monighetti
