This week, we published a lot of content that will be applicable for a while. Within this FantasyLabs Friday Recap, you can find links to all of that content, for your weekend reading pleasure.
General
– Playing Bridge, Punting Early, and Late Swap, by Matthew Freedman
This point might seem simple and insignificant, but it’s important. Just as you want to put your latest player in the lineup spot that gives you the most flexibility, you want to have your weakest player(s) in the earliest games because that will also provide you with the most flexibility later in the contest, likely both in terms of strategy and salary. In DFS, as in bridge, the key to winning is knowing when to play the losers.
– The Monty Hall Problem, Anchoring, Late Swap, and The Panopticon, by Matthew Freedman
Almost all DFS players know about the late swap capabilities on DK. Some people sense that the biggest game feature distinguishing DK and FD is late swap. Fewer players use late swap regularly. And even fewer recognize this simple truth — on DK, the people who use late swap are likely to win and the people who don’t swap are likely to lose.
PGA
– Conventional Data and Strokes Gained Are Not That Different, by Colin Davy
To be clear: For a single tournament, conventional data will never be outright better than ShotLink data if both are available. ShotLink is still more granular and can offer more specific information, but the net effect of its granularity and specificity gets overstated all the time. Most of the value from strokes gained comes from the fact that it’s adjusting ShotLink data to show how each player does relative to the field, and the majority of that value can be captured by adjusting conventional data.
– The PGA Process: Arnold Palmer Invitational Review, by Graham Barfield
In slightly smaller fields (such as the API) I think we have to be a little less concerned about ownership percentages and more concerned about being aggressive with our approach. Since DFS players have fewer decisions to make (i.e., a smaller field), we have to focus more on finding the right balance of upside and contrarianism in our lineups.
MLB
– Finding an Edge in Yahoo’s Daily Fantasy Baseball Hitters Salaries, by Bryan Mears
Yahoo’s batting pricing isn’t quirky like its pitching pricing; unfortunately, it has to be in order to make up for the pitching. Basically, they either both have to be off from DK and FD or both be together; having just one off really skews the marketplace set forth in the daily Yahoo contests. So what can you do? Well, there are some really odd values. You’re going to have to find these on a daily basis if you want to roster the top pitchers.
– Looking at Lineup Data with DraftKings’ New MLB Rule Changes, by Bryan Mears
DraftKings’ rules now heavily align with the natural value already found in MLB DFS. This will make it chalkier, but it will also make it more advantageous to be contrarian in GPPs. Our Trends tool is a great way to find hidden value, or value that isn’t quite as obvious as the 1-5 hitters. They’re the low-hanging fruit this year and how you deal with that will largely determine profitability, especially early in the season.
– The Daily Fantasy Sports Roundtable: #8 – Intro to MLB
Matthew Freedman is joined by Davis Mattek, Mitchell Block, and Peter Jennings, who discuss the subtleties of MLB DFS.
– Change of Scenery: Jason Heyward, by Bill Monighetti
Based on the numbers, we can expect Jason Heyward to do fairly well in 2016. Of course, the problem is that lots of people are seemingly expecting him to do well. For instance, Steamer has him projected for 18 HRs, 18 SBs, 71 RBIs, and a .284 average. That would be roughly what Carlos Santana, Logan Forsythe, and Mookie Betts produced last season. With stacking more popular than ever in MLB DFS, expect Heyward to be a popular play in April. In addition to the already high-variance nature of the sport, his projections and past inconsistency may instead make him a decent fade in early April guaranteed prize pools.
NBA
– The Daily Fantasy Flex Podcast — NBA: 3/25/16 Slate Breakdown
Jay Persson and Peter Jennings break down the full 3/25/16 NBA DFS slate.
– The Daily Fantasy Flex Podcast — NBA: 3/25/16 Position Quick Hits
Jay Persson and Peter Jennings quickly run through positions for the 3/25/16 NBA DFS slate.
– NBA DFS: Bargain Hunting on DraftKings, 3/25/16, by Mitchell Block
Darren Collison’s incredibly solid run has yet to lead to a major jump in price. After his $500 increase, DraftKings (DK) dropped Collison’s salary immediately back to $5,100 after one down game. His matchup with the Suns will see Phoenix sporting an outrageous Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.65, and Vegas has set the total on this game at 220. Turning to our Trends tool, we can see that an incredibly high Opponent Plus/Minus combined with a high game total have generally correlated with very positive results.
– The Doomsday Vault, Millenarianism, and End of Days Players, by Matthew Freedman
We can’t really anticipate when and how an NBA player will have a bad “real life” performance. We can only anticipate that it will happen more often than we want. The key (I believe) to surviving the performances of players who might randomly self-annihilate is to find players who will still have a chance of living through doomsday because they have a metaphorical Svalbard Global Seed Vault to fall back on when everything comes crashing down. Such performers may be thought of as “End of Days Players.”
– Black Swans (Revisited), Low-Minute Centers, and Timofey Mozgov, by Matthew Freedman
If you want to find an underappreciated player with the potential to become a positive Black Swan, starting with players not projected to play many minutes is a decent place to start. Of course, this limitation in minutes likely means that our potential Black Swan, even if he is rare, will likely not be outrageously productive. Nevertheless, if he is projected to play few minutes, he will also likely have a low ownership and be expected to underperform. If he is cheap and if all he does is live up to or barely exceed his salary-adjusted expectations, such a player could enable one to have a unique lineup stacked with premium high-upside producers.
Trends
– MLB 3/22/16: Plus/Minus Performance of “Splitty” Batters, by Bill Monighetti
– MLB 3/25/16: MLB Opening Day Trends, Part I, by Bill Monighetti
– NBA 3/21/16: Players Under $7,000 with a Ceiling Over 50, by Bryan Mears
– NBA 3/22/16: Players with High Bargain and Pro Trend Ratings, by Mitchell Block
– NBA 3/23/16: Near-Minimum Players Who Have Logged 20-38 Minutes Over Their Last 10 Games, by John Daigle
– NBA 3/24/16: The Thunder in Lower Implied Totals this Season, by John Daigle
– NBA 3/25/16: FanDuel Players with a Positive Bargain Rating and a Ceiling of At Least 50, by Jonathan Cabezas
