This week, we published a lot of content that will be applicable for a while. You can find links to all of that content in this post, for your weekend reading pleasure.
General
– Introducing FantasyLabs Widgets
Exciting news: we have developed FREE widgets that anyone can use for sharing of our player cards, news, and player ratings. Check it out at the top of each sport-specific page.
– Video: Building a Bankroll, Volume 3, by Jay Persson
In this video series, Jay starts with a $100 bankroll and teaches you how to manage and grow a bankroll using FantasyLabs tools.
– FantasyLabs User Breaks Down $52.5k Night and Talks About the “Daily Fantasy Snap Call,” by John Quaile
Basketball is a sport where all of the research you have compiled all day can go to crap in just one fell swoop of NBA coaches late decisions. The best part about this situation is that you get a bit of contrarian value. Most people won’t and can’t make major changes to their lineups with 10 minutes until lock. The key to making a well-informed snap call is knowing the slate and having access to what happens to player values during those real-time changes. Luckily, we have FantasyLabs making real-time minutes projections to all changes as they happen.
– The Daily Fantasy Sports Roundtable: #6 – Late Breaking NBA News
Matthew Freedman is joined by Spencer Limbach, Jay Persson, and Adam Levitan, who discuss late breaking NBA news and its impact on DFS decisions.
– DFS Dereferentialization and Reaching the Cash Line, by Matthew Freedman
As a general DFS community, we have a problem: “DFS Dereferentialization.” The way that we talk is often far too loose. We say things without their meaning anything concrete. We operate on a basis of imprecision. We use adjectives instead of numbers. We say that a guy is “an excellent cash-game play” without saying specifically how he is excellent and what it means when we say “excellent.” We imply, knowing that a satisfactory and self-serving inference will usually be made by those who hear what we say, sometimes even by ourselves.
– Bargain Rating, Woody Allen, and Value Traps, by Matthew Freedman
Bargain Rating compares the salaries and salary structures of the platforms. That’s it. It doesn’t take into account any of the other differences in the platforms — and there are a lot of them. The scoring systems are different. The lineup configurations are different. The locking rules are different. When creating lineups, we know that these differences are significant, but when considering Bargain Rating we tend to ignore them. What I’m getting at is this simple fact: Sometimes, because of these other differences between DraftKings and FanDuel, it actually makes sense for a guy to be relatively cheaper on one platform and more expensive on another.
– Selection Bias, Balanced DFS Trends, and Small Forwards, by Matthew Freedman
Selection bias is natural, but we can mitigate it in the way that we create DFS trends. In theory, when we evaluate slates and players we want to take the entire pool of lineup candidates into account, and so we want our portfolio of trends to reflect that goal. Clearly, not every trend will be expansive (since the goal of a trend is to separate some players from others on the basis of data), but by making sure that our trends individually and collectively aren’t constructed in such a way so as to select for players for or against whom we have biases then we can use our trends to analyze slates and players in a thorough and encompassing manner. Even when we are separating players with our trends, the goal is to separate them as evenly as possible.
PGA
– Sign up for a chance to be part of the BETA test!
– Why I Love the FantasyLabs PGA Product, by Jonathan Bales
In my opinion, our golf product could end up being the best one we offer. First of all, daily fantasy golf just sets up really well to model. There are a ton of relevant stats (and we have all of them), and, like baseball, you can create a really powerful model without the use of projections.
– FantasyLabs Podcast with Colin Davy, 3/9/16
Bryan talks to Colin Davy, new FantasyLabs Director of PGA, about the upcoming PGA DFS tools, general PGA DFS strategy, and what to expect this season at FantasyLabs.
MLB
– How Game Theory Could be Affected by DraftKings’ New MLB Rule Changes, by Bryan Mears
Recently, DraftKings announced rule changes for the upcoming MLB season. I thought it would be a useful exercise – for me personally, but hopefully you too – to think on these rule changes and how they can/will change MLB DFS game theory. Of course, game theory is an ever-evolving thing and we could see that some of my guesses/musings are very wrong come MLB season. And that is the most important thing – rule changes aren’t that important; how you adapt to them is key.
– Transitioning from NBA to MLB: Part One – Managing Two DFS Sports at the Same Time, by Mitchell Block
Because MLB and NBA are true daily sports — meaning they actually have games every day — it can be tough enough to find consistent success in just one of these sports if you have time constraints that will affect your ability to research and prepare. But if you can successfully set up effective processes and outline a plan for success, it’s certainly possible to take on both concurrently.
– Transitioning from NBA to MLB: Part Two – Identifying Differences and Finding Common Ground, by Mitchell Block
When we pay up for top-tier talent in NBA DFS, we often do so in an attempt to reduce the amount of variance we’re inviting into our lineup. Along with high ceilings, expensive NBA players will generally carry a high floor, thus reducing the range of expected outcomes (or variance). If you’re expecting to throw money at positional players in MLB and find those comparable floors, think again.
– Change of Scenery: Johnny Cueto, by Bill Monighetti
We have a lot of information that is somewhat all over the place with Cueto, so where does that leave us in 2016? In Cueto’s case, we have a pitcher who is still in his prime, reportedly healthy, and moving into a pitcher-friendly environment to begin 2016.
NBA
– FantasyLabs Podcast — NBA DFS 3/11/16 Full Slate Breakdown
Peter Jennings and Jay Persson break down the 3/11/16 NBA DFS slate.
– FantasyLabs Podcast — NBA DFS 3/11/16 Position Quick Hits
Peter Jennings and Jay Persson quickly run through positions for the NBA DFS 3/11/16 slate.
– NBA DFS: Bargain Hunting on DraftKings, 3/11/16, by Mitchell Block
Forced to sit out his last game with injury, Norris Cole is once again listed as questionable tonight, so it’ll be particularly important to monitor his situation as the day progresses. But if he can go, he’ll face a Memphis team bereft of healthy point guards. Street free agent Briante Weber is the only point guard on the roster at the moment and we’ll likely see him and Lance Stephenson running the point tonight.
– NBA Trend Testing: Road Weary Teams, by Bill Monighetti
If you were to create a Trend that very simply matched road teams without any other filters, you would find that there is a slightly positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Does it make any difference whether the team is playing in Game 1 of a road trip or Game 6 of a road trip? Maybe, I don’t know. That’s what I intend to find out this week.
Trends
– MLB 3/9/16: Bottom of the Order, High Vegas Score, by Bill Monighetti
– NBA 3/7/16: Centers versus Chicago, by Bryan Mears
– NBA 3/8/16: Players with a high Bargain Rating and high Projected Ceiling, by Mitchell Block
– NBA 3/9/16: Carmelo Anthony vs. PHX, by Bill Monighetti
– NBA 3/10/16: Players with a Projected Plus/Minus of at least +1 and 18-25 minutes over the last month, by John Daigle
– NBA 3/11/16: Sacramento Kings without Demarcus Cousins, by Jonathan Cabezas
