As we’re growing and publishing more content all around (very exciting), I’ve decided to make a post every Friday afternoon of the content from the previous week, just in case you’ve missed anything.
Here we go (Mario 64 voice)…
General
– The Value of FantasyLabs Player Models, by Jonathan Bales
Watch FantasyLabs co-founder Jonathan Bales show the differences between our free Player Ratings page and our premium Player Models tool. In addition to analyzing more data, Player Models allows you to build and test DFS models, easily optimize or generate multiple lineups, and enter your lineups easily to DraftKings and FanDuel.
– How I Use FantasyLabs Trends, by Adam Levitan
Watch Adam Levitan break down how he uses the FantasyLabs Trends tool in this video.
– The Daily Fantasy Sports Roundtable: #3 – Contrarian Strategies
Matt is joined by Nick, Bryan, and Jonathan, who discuss DFS contrarian strategies. Topics include what contrarianism actually is, how contest format impacts strategy, when and how to stack, and the process of constructing contrarian lineups.
– Is Fear Affecting Your GPP Performance?, by Mitch Block
If you’ve done any reading on game theory as applied to DFS, I’m sure you’re well aware of the generally accepted principle that fading an extremely high-owned player is often an advisable course of action. Yet, no matter the sport, we routinely see players owned at ridiculously high percentages, which implies that plenty of people are forgoing this thought. My opinion – don’t be one of these people. Well, try your best not to be at least.
PGA
– Sign up for a chance to be part of the BETA test!
MLB
– How I’m Spending My All-Star Break: An Exploration Into MLB Trends, by Mitch Block
I haven’t spent a ton of time digging into our Trends tool for MLB, so this seemed like the perfect time to start and walk our readers through some of the functionality of the tools while I’m at it. My goal with all of this? Attempt to flush out a few trends that the best players from last April had in common and see if any of these trends are predictive of how players as a whole perform early in the season.
NBA
– FantasyLabs Podcast — NBA DFS 2/19/16
Watch or listen to Jay and Pete break down the 2/19 NBA DFS slate.
– NBA DFS: Bargain Hunting on DraftKings, 2/19/16, by Mitch Block
Identifying value is paramount to success in NBA DFS. If we want to be able to roster the high-floor/high-ceiling premium players like Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and others, concessions – in the form of low priced players – need to be made. Lucky for us, value is constantly popping up due the nature of the NBA. Whether it be injuries, rest or rotational changes, it is not uncommon to find players thrust into more meaningful roles on a regular basis in this league. When such changes occur, daily fantasy sites generally won’t have the ability to update the player’s pricing to reflect their new role and playing time and this is where we find our value.
– Coming to Terms with Reality and Admitting Our Weaknesses, by Mitch Block
Understanding where our strengths and weaknesses lie is the first step in setting forth an actionable plan that will allow us to shore up any weaknesses and further focus on our strengths. For some of us, this may mean we suck at mudding drywall seams and should be paying someone else to make sure quality work is being done. For others, we may have the requisite skillset to perform a task, but not the time management skills to fit it into our daily schedule.
– Reductionism and Big-Spread, Non-Expensive Underdog Point Guards, by Matthew Freedman
In fact, once one breaks an assumption, the best course of action is not merely to say, “Oh, I was wrong.” Rather, one should explore how one erred. One should explore the scenario to find if there are deeper ways in which one erred. The benefit of doing so is not just that one attains greater knowledge and a more open mind. The true payoff is that if one made a mistake it’s possible that many other people make that same mistake, and if one finds hidden truth that most people overlook than that truth (we’ll call it a trend) could be exploited to great profit.
– Value Investing and Buy-Low, Score-Big Shooting Guards, by Matthew Freedman
In applying this idea to DFS, I think that it would be best to focus on a position that might be relatively unpopular. Here, I’m thinking about shooting guards. Often people minimize their exposure to shooting guards, not playing them in the guard flex spot or the utility spot if they can help it. In general, people just don’t like shooting guards, because unlike point guards they have fewer opportunities for assists and shots since they don’t play regularly with the ball in their hands and unlike forwards and centers they have fewer opportunities for rebounds and high-percentage shots because they play further away from the basket.
– NBA DFS: Monitoring the Minutes, Volume 11, by Mitch Block
Carter-Williams derives much of his value from compiling peripheral stats – his highest scoring night is only 19 in his previous 15 games – and with reduced playing time, it’s going to be difficult to count on those consistently moving forward. The ceiling is still there and his ownership level will likely be down as he’s been banished to a bench role at the moment, but take a wait-and-see approach if you’re looking his direction in cash games.
– NBA Trend Testing: Lessons Learned, by Bill Monighetti
Although it wasn’t possible to track a new trend this week due to the NBA All-Star Break, I do want to take this opportunity to reflect on a few things I have learned over the past couple of months while writing the series and also while using FantasyLabs in general. In this article, I will address a couple common mistakes I think people make and hopefully provide some insight to our users who haven’t leveraged the Trends tool to its full potential.
– Reductionism, Value Investing, and Bad-Game, Ball-Hog Point Guards, by Matthew Freedman
Previously, I have talked about the fallacy of reductionism and the vitality of value investing. I’ve also applied the ideas of reductionism and value investing to create actionable Trends for the guard positions. Specifically, inexpensive point guards who are big underdogs and depreciated shooting guards who are still productive and playing substantial minutes are capable of adding strong value to any lineup. In this piece, I want to explore reductionism and value investing further to highlight another type of guard who can provide value: The Bad-Game, Ball-Hog Point Guard.
Trends of the Day
– Thursday: Thursday’s Teams in Games With a 205.5 or Higher Total, by John Daigle
– Friday: Players With Five or More Days of Rest vs. Players on a Back-to-Back, by JayCabay12
