FantasyDraft data and tools are now available at FantasyLabs. To kick things off, we’re hosting a PGA freeroll for FantasyLabs users, so be sure to check it out.
Rosters
Let’s start with how PGA rosters compare to DraftKings and FanDuel.
FantasyDraft splits the difference between DraftKings and FanDuel, who require users to roster six and eight golfers. That said, there is one huge difference: FantasyDraft counts only your top-six golfers for each lineup. The score of your seventh golfer is dropped.
This has an intriguing affect on strategy for both cash games and guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), although it’s hard to say exactly what the effect would be week to week. Allow me to share a back-and-forth exchange I had with Matthew Freedman on the topic:
Bryan: This week (now last week) Brendan Steele is the crazy chalk; he’s probably about 70 percent owned on DraftKings in cash games. If you rostered him on DraftKings in GPPs, your lineup is done (he missed the cut). But on FantasyDraft, essentially everyone got that free board space. . . I guess the question comes to this: Does eliminating the lowest-scoring golfer give an edge to fish or sharks?
Freedman: I think it probably still gives the edge to sharks. Macro, it probably helps more fish cash than they otherwise would’ve, but it also probably helps more sharks finish near the top of GPPs.
I agree with Freedman in that assessment, but notice the heavy use of the word probably: Outside of having our lives dominated by DFS, odds, and probabilities, that shows again that this is not a black-and-white strategy conversation. [Editor’s Note: It also probably shows that Freedman probably overuses the word “probably,” in all probability.]
In cash games, the goal is still to maximize the number of golfers who make the cut; because of the free board space, that goal is easier to obtain on FantasyDraft compared to the other two sites — especially FanDuel, who has two more spaces that count. There’s a surprising player who misses the cut almost every week, like Steele last week at the Quicken Loans National, but having the lowest-scoring player removed from all cash game lineups takes away that risk. The rule shouldn’t change cash-game strategy, but it does even the playing field a bit.
In tournaments, there are a couple of different approaches users can take: They can take the cash-game approach and maximize the odds of getting six cut-makers, or they can use a free space on a contrarian player. Given the salary breakdown on FantasyDraft — we’ll get there in a bit — it seems easy for users to go with a stars-and-scrubs strategy. The extra space in tournaments will often go to a contrarian scrub, and that could certainly be the optimal strategy currently in tournaments. The meta game is ever-changing.
Scoring
To get a sense of the impact of scoring differences, I measured each stat in the scoring systems for DraftKings and FantasyDraft as a percentage increase or decrease over the most basic stat for golfers: Pars.
The biggest difference between DraftKings and FantasyDraft scoring is with finishing positions: The latter significantly devalues finishing position relative to ‘counting’ stats like pars, birdies, and bogeys. Now, that’s not to say it isn’t still important to roster the winner of the tournament — it’s unlikely you can win a GPP without also rostering the winner — but the importance of finishing position is diminished. Whereas it’s unlikely for a DraftKings golfer who finishes second in an event to outscore the winner in fantasy points — the 10-point difference is huge — it’s much likelier to happen with a FantasyDraft golfer. You still need players at the top of the leaderboards, but counting stats are important on FantasyDraft.
On the note of counting stats: Birdies are slightly devalued on FantasyDraft (compared to DraftKings), at least in terms of percentage increase over the value of pars. The difference isn’t huge, and the overall impact is negated because of the decreased value of finishing position. Again, go for birdies and guys who can finish in the top 10.
Salaries
I looked at last week’s Quicken Loans National as an example slate and measured each player’s salary as a percentage of the total cap on DraftKings, FanDuel, and FantasyDraft:
The biggest difference between FantasyDraft and DraftKings is the ceiling/floors of player salaries. For example, here’s the difference between the highest-priced golfer, Rickie Fowler, and the minimum-priced players, in terms of salary cap percentage points:
- DraftKings: 10.8
- FanDuel: 9.5
- FantasyDraft: 8.6
Fowler took up 24.0, 17.0, and 19.1 percent of the cap as the highest-priced golfer in this particular slate, and the minimum-salaried golfers took up the following percentage of the cap:
- DraftKings: 13.2 percent
- FanDuel: 7.5 percent
- FantasyDraft: 10.5 percent
FantasyDraft seems to be more in line with FanDuel than DraftKings in terms of pricing, and that is confirmed by the salary correlations between the sites:
Because FantasyDraft golfers have a relatively narrow range of salaries — the difference in salary cap percentage between the min-priced golfers and the studs is only about eight to nine points — it is much easier to build stars-and-scrubs rosters. As a result, that strategy will likely be popular in GPPs, which makes it even more imperative to find low-owned golfers, especially since users essentially get a free board space.
Takeaways
- FantasyDraft requires users to draft seven golfers instead of six for DraftKings and eight for FanDuel. Only six of the seven are counted, however, which doesn’t necessarily change cash-game strategy but possibly limits the edge for sharp players. The strategy for tournaments is tough to dissect but could become more apparent as GPPs grow in size. It will likely push users toward a stars-and-scrubs lineup approach, and that will be even more accentuated by FantasyDraft’s pricing.
- Finishing positions are heavily devalued on FantasyDraft. That doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t roster players with the capability of finishing within the top 10, but birdies and counting stats are more important. A second-place golfer can fairly easily outscore the winner of an event.
- FantasyDraft has a narrow salary range for golfers, which means it is easy to roster high-priced studs. Although the minimum-priced guys are likely a bit overpriced, users will probably go the stars-and-scrubs route at a high rate.
Good luck, and be sure to do research for yourself using the FantasyLabs Tools and Models.
