The Euro Breakdown provides event history and examines all the relevant data to assist you in analyzing the oftentimes unfamiliar events of the European Tour.
Because there is no historical data for Euro Tour salaries on DraftKings, all trends mentioned in this article (created with our free Trends tool) are based on all PGA Tour Events.
What You Need To Know
The recent history of the Scottish Open has been pretty exciting. Last year, Rickie Fowler needed birdies on 15, 16, and 18 to come from behind and defeat Matt Kuchar and Raphael Jacquelin by one stroke at Gullane Country Club.
If you’re focusing on course history for the Scottish Open this week, concentrate on 2011-2013, as all three of those Opens were held at this year’s host course: Castle Stuart Golf Links.
Castle Stuart has been home to some wild finishes in this event. In 2013 and 2012, playoff holes were required to declare a winner. First, Jeev Milkha Singh conquered Francesco Molinari, and the following year Phil Mickelson defeated Branden Grace. Mickelson went on to raise the Claret Jug at the Open Championship the following week.
In 2011, Luke Donald won the tournament at 19 under par, and that score came after only 54 holes, as the tournament was shortened due to weather. Scores can get really low at this track.
The Field
The field this week is excellent, and you’re sure to recognize a few names from the PGA Tour. There are 96 European Tour Winners in the field and seven Major Champions with 15 titles between them, headlined by Mickelson’s five.
The man Mickelson defeated in a playoff in 2013, Branden Grace, is back at Castle Stuart, along with Henrik Stenson, Martin Kaymer, Patrick Reed, Shane Lowry, J.B. Holmes, and Scotland’s own Russell Knox.
The Stats
The past three winners of the Scottish Open at Castle Stuart have excelled in different areas. Mickelson won with top-10 Driving Distance (DD), Greens in Regulation (GIR), and Scrambling marks. Milkha Singh was top-15 in Driving Distance and second in Scrambling. Donald was top-10 in Driving Accuracy and second in GIR.
Plus/Minus, Long-Term Drivers, Long-Term GIR, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings page.
I’m looking for players who combine either distance or accuracy off the tee with excellent GIR or Scrambling.
Green Bombers
Overall, Golfers ranked in the top 75 percent for both Long-Term DD and GIR have historically generated a +2.48 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with 54.6 percent Consistency.
High-Priced Golfers ($9,600 and Higher)
The 296.9 LT DD of Branden Grace ranks 14th overall and is the highest average for golfers in his pricing tier. Grace has utilized his 68.0 percent LT GIR score well, averaging 14.5 Birdies per Tournament over the past 75 weeks.
Grace’s 55.9 LT Driving Accuracy is extremely low for this field, but it hasn’t hurt him, as evidenced by his 69.0 LT Adj Rd Score, second-best overall.
Golfers in this price range combining LT Driving and GIR averages similar to Grace have not been profitable historically on DraftKings, however.
Mid-Priced Golfers ($7,500 – $9,500)
Nicolas Colsaerts is checking a whole bunch of boxes this week. His 306.6 LT DD is fourth-best overall and second in this pricing tier to only J.B. Holmes. Colsaerts’ 73.3 percent LT GIR is also fourth-best overall and first in this pricing tier.
The rare golfers in this price range that combine Colsaerts’ marks of LT Distance and GIR have manufactured a +8.83 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Colsaerts has been playing well recently, proven by his 68.9 Recent Adj Rd Score, 11th-best in the field. He has great course history at Castle Stuart as well, making the cut all three times the Open has been hosted here, with two top-10s, one of which was a third-place finish in 2011. His 69.6 Course Adjusted Round Score is the best score among golfers who have made three starts here.
Value Plays ($7,000 and Lower)
Lucas Bjerregaard had himself quite a Thursday last week in Paris. He led the Open de France after firing an opening-round 66 that included a hole-in-one, the first of his career. Dunking shots on short Par 3s isn’t all the young Dane can do, however. His 303.9 LT DD is seventh-best in the field, and his 68.9 percent LT GIR is 23rd overall.
With a LT DD average more than six yards longer than J.B. Holmes, Sebastien Gros obviously can drop bombs: His 317.9-yard average is highest in the entire field. Gros is also adapt at hitting greens, as shown by his 68.6 percent LT GIR, tied for 26th in the field.
Value plays with LT DD and GIR averages akin to Gros and Bjerregaard have supplied a negative -0.42 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Scotland’s own Jimmy Gunn is currently 51st on the Web.com Tour’s Money List, where he has two top-10 finishes this season.
Gunn’s 70.5 percent LT GIR is 12th-best in the field and his 297.8 LT DD is 13th-best overall. As an added bonus, his 69.7 percent LT Driving Accuracy is sixth-best in the field. Priced at $5,600, Gunn appears to be a data-driven, strategic punt play with a bit of local narrative built in.
Be aware that Gunn comes into this tournament with a Recent Adj Rd Score of 73.2. There are only 15 golfers in the entire field with a worse Recent Adj Rd Score.
Bomb and Scramble
Golfers in the top 75 percent for both LT DD and LT Scrambling (SC) have traditionally delivered a +2.37 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with 55.8 percent Consistency.
High-Priced Golfers ($9,600 and Higher)
We’ve already discussed Branden Grace above, and knowing that he fits the valuable trend above for LT SC makes him even more appealing. Phil Mickelson is a well-known magician around the greens and that has suited him well on this course previously. Mickelson’s 59.9 percent LT SC mark is ninth-best overall, while his 296.3 LT DD places him 16th in this field.
Golfers with LT DD and SC averages analogous to Mickelson have registered a +2.72 Plus/Minus with 52.6 percent Consistency on DraftKings.
There are no golfers in the mid-priced tier who qualify as ‘Bomb and Scramble’ options.
Value Plays ($7,000 and Lower)
One of the first Frankensteins I created in the Lab, Jamie Lovemark carries a 308.5 LT DD into this event, good enough for third overall. What’s more, Lovemark’s 61.5 LT SC percentage is sixth-best overall and his 70.5 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for the 14th-best score in the field.
Lovemark hasn’t finished better than 52nd since losing in a playoff at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. His Recent SC mark has dropped all the way down to 44.0 percent.
Golfers in this pricing tier with LT metrics comparable to Lovemark have yielded a +5.39 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with excellent 61.9 percent Consistency.
Straight Scramblers
Golfers in the top 75 percent for both LT Driving Accuracy (DA) and LT (SC) have historically produced a +1.10 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with 51.5 percent Consistency.
There are no golfers in the high-priced tier who qualify as ‘Straight Scramblers.’
Mid-Priced Golfers ($7,500 – $9,500)
Here is what Russell Knox wrote in his blog about coming home to play in the Scottish Open on EuropeanTour.com. He likes bacon. Who doesn’t?
Knox has a lot going for him this week. Not only is he at home, but his 60.2 percent LT SC ranks eighth and his 66.9 percent LT DA is 11th-best in the field. As an added bonus, his LT GIR of 69.4 percent is 19th overall. And he knows how to put all these metrics to good use: Knox’s 69.5 LT Adj Rd Score is fourth-best in the field.
Value Plays ($7,000 and Lower)
Colin Montgomerie is (approximately) 107 years old. He hits the ball extremely straight off the tee and he scrambles exceptionally well, especially for an old-timer who must struggle getting in and out of bunkers on those old knees. I wrote about him and his statistical ups and downs in the Euro Data Dive.
Avoiding the Rough
Golfers in the top 75 for both LT GIR and LT DA have historically provided a +0.21 Plus/Minus with only 49.2 percent Consistency.
High-Priced Golfers ($9,600 and Higher)
You can read all about Henrik Stenson and his domination of nearly every available metric in the Euro Data Dive. If you are picking players based only on statistical evidence, I’m not sure you can find a better play.
Andy Sullivan finished fifth at the Open de France last week, so he’s coming to the event in excellent form: His 68.4 Recent Adj Rd Score is tied for seventh-best in the field. Sullivan’s 68.6 LT GIR and 64.7 LT DA don’t jump off the page at you, but he is in the top 75 percent of both metrics.
Mid-Priced Golfers ($7,500 – $9,500)
Matthew Fitzpatrick and Gregory Bourdy are on the top and bottom end of the Mid-Priced tier, but their form and abilities are strikingly similar. Fitzpatrick’s 72.7 LT GIR is fifth-overall, while Bourdy’s 71.1 is eighth-best. Fitzpatrick’s 70 percent LT DA is tied for third, while Bourdy’s 68.2 percent is tied for ninth. Bourdy’s Recent Adj Rd Score of 68.6 is eighth-best in the field and Fitzpatrick’s 69.0 is 12th-best.
Bourdy has a 71.2 Course Adj Rd Score at Castle Stuart in three starts; Fitzpatrick has not played here.
Value Plays ($7,000 and Lower)
Eduardo De La Riva’s LT DA is 68.2 percent, tied for ninth-best in the field, and his LT GIR of 69.6 percent is tied for 17th overall. He finished 25th at a much tougher course in Paris last weekend, but missed the cut here in his only start in 2013.
De La Riva’s 30.4 LT Putts Per Round is one of the worst scores in the field.
Players in this pricing tier with comparable LT DA and GIR averages have historically delivered a +2.54 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with 54.8 percent Consistency.
With no PGA this week, it should be an awesome week in Scotland. Enjoy the golf and good luck!
