The Euro Breakdown provides event history and examines all the relevant data to assist you in analyzing the oftentimes unfamiliar events of the European Tour.
Because there is no historical data for Euro Tour salaries on DraftKings, all trends mentioned in this article (created with our free Trends tool) are based on all PGA Tour Events.
What You Need to Know
This week the Euro Tour heads to the Jack Nicklaus-designed Gut Larchenhof in Germany for the BMW International Open. Since 2011, Gut Larchenhof has rotated hosting the BMW with Golf Club Munchen Eichenriech, so this is only the third time the event will be held at this course.
Fortunately, the course did previously host the Mercedes-Benz Championship for 11 consecutive years, so there is additional Euro Tour history to use.
Fabrizio Zanotti won this event in 2014, the last time the event was held at Gut Larchenhof. Current Masters Champion Danny Willett won the event at this course in 2012, Willett’s first victory on Tour. Retief Goosen, Padraig Harrington, KJ Choi, and Sergio Garcia have all won here. The last three European Tour events played at this course have all been decided in a playoff.
It’s early in the week, but there is significant rain and thunderstorms forecast in Germany, so you may want to consider the weather strategy CSURAM88 talks about in his US Open lineup review.
The most recent winners at Gut Larchenhof have traditionally outperformed the field in Greens in Regulation (GIR) and Scrambling. These are the two metrics I will focus on this week.
Scores can get really low at this place. Two years ago, 27 golfers finished at 15 under par or better. The four golfers who went to a playoff finished at 19 under par. The four Par 5s on the course surrendered a total of 60 Eagles, including a whopping 26 at the 519-yard 13th hole. That being the case, Par 5 performance is an additional metric I will examine this week.
Greens in Regulation
The last five winners at Gut Larchenhof have finished the week ranked in the top 15 in GIR.
Historically, golfers with both Long-Term & Recent GIR Scores in the upper quartile have produced a Plus/Minus of +1.60 with 54 percent Consistency.
High-Priced Golfers ($9,000 and Higher)
Nicolas Colsaerts’ 73.6 percent Long-Term GIR and 72.9 percent Recent GIR are both second to Stenson’s marks.
As discussed in this week’s Euro Data Dive, Colsaerts is a long bomber who misses a lot of fairways but still manages to hit a ton on GIR despite his accuracy issues. Colsaerts comes to this event in excellent form. His 68.4 Recent Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score) is fourth-best this week.
Ross Fisher’s 71.9 percent Long-Term GIR is fifth-best in the field, although his Recent GIR has dropped to 66.2 percent. That drop, however, hasn’t affected his scoring: His 69.5 Recent Adj Rd Score is ninth-best in the field and nearly a full stroke better than his Long-Term Adj Rd Score.
Fisher is crushing the ball off the tee lately, evidenced by his 302.8-yard Recent Driving Distance (DD), and he has maintained a decently accurate 61.1 percent Recent Driving Accuracy (DA) as well. Fisher’s 69.5 Recent Adj Rd Score is tied for ninth-best in the field.
Mid-Priced Golfers ($7,000 – $8,900)
Andrew ‘Beef’ Johnston is a funny dude. Follow him on Twitter. You won’t regret it. Or maybe you will — but it will be regret you’re pleased to live with.
In this salary tier, Johnston’s 69.9 percent Long-Term GIR is sixth-best and his 67.7 percent Recent GIR is seventh-best.
And it’s a good thing that Johnston has good GIR marks, because his 31 Recent Putts Per Round and 44.1 percent Recent Scrambling are just awful.
Despite his Recent Putting and Scrambling inadequacies, Beef comes to the BMW in excellent form as evidenced by his 69.6 Recent Adj Rd Score, 10th-best in the field. Johnston made the cut at last week’s U.S. Open and finished 12th at the Nordea Masters, seventh at the BMW PGA Championship, and first at the Open de Espana back in April.
Golfers in this salary tier with Long-Term and Recent GIR percentages comparable to Beef’s have accounted for a +0.61 Plus/Minus with 54.5 percent Consistency.
Long-Term GIR, Plus/Minus, Consistency, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings page.
Romain ‘Lettuce’ Wattel hung around for the weekend at the U.S. Open last week and finished 63rd. He doesn’t actually go by ‘Lettuce,’ but since we were just talking about Beef . . .
Wattel’s 68.1 Recent GIR is sixth-best in his salary tier and overall he’s in excellent recent form, as demonstrated by his 69.4 Recent Adj Rd Score, eighth-best in the field. Of course, somewhat troubling is his recent Bogey average of 12.8 per tournament, tied for sixth-worst in the field.
Value Plays ($6,900 and Lower)
Ricardo Gouveia sounds like he should be a middle reliever for the Texas Rangers, but he’s actually a GIR-hitting fool priced at just $6,500. [Editor’s Note: Even if he has no baseball experience, he could probably still be a reliever for the Rangers.]
Gouveia’s 70.6 percent Long-term GIR is 12th in the field, while his 69.8 percent Recent GIR is ninth. Again, that’s not just in this salary tier. That’s in the entire field.
Ricardo puts those GIRs to good use: Gouveia’s Long-term Birdie average of 15 per tournament is fifth-best in the field. Value plays with comparable statistics have a +1.27 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Richard McEvoy is intriguing, not just because of his 70.4 percent Recent GIR but also because of his 58.1 percent Recent Scrambling, which is 12th in the field. He is one of only 20 golfers at the tournament with a Recent Scrambling percentage of 55 percent or better.
Players in this pricing tier with comparable recent metrics have produced a +1.06 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
For some additional information about another GIR Value Play, Mikko Korhonen, check out Kelly’s Euro Data Dive.
Scrambling
Apparently Euro golfers are so good at GIR that they all suck at scrambling . . . because they never have to do it.
That being said, the last five winners at Gut Larchenhof have finished the week ranked in the top 15 in Scrambling.
High-Priced Golfers ($9,000 and Higher)
Tyrrell Hatton is a stud. Since the Shenzan International in late April, he has ripped off five consecutive top-20 finishes, including a fifth at the Irish Open and a seventh at the BMW PGA Championship.
Hatton’s 62.6 percent Recent Scrambling is second-best in the entire field, and his Long-term Scrambling mark of 58.2 percent is third overall in his salary tier.
Golfers in this pricing tier with comparable Scrambling percentages historically have a +1.79 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
With a 68.4 Recent Adj Rd Score, Hatton is tied for third in the field with Stenson.
Bernd Wiesberger is seventh overall in the field with a Long-Term Scrambling mark of 58.9 percent, and he sits 11th overall in Long-Term GIR at 70.3 percent.
For those looking to take a northerly stroll on Narrative Street: Wiesberger is playing in his home country of Germany. Of course, those walking southward will likely remember that Wiesberger has missed the cut here in both of his starts. His 72.4 Course Adj Rd Score isn’t good.
Mid-Priced Golfers ($7,000 – $8,900)
Thongchai Jaidee finished fifth here in 2014 and eighth in 2012. He’s also 106 years old. [Editor’s Note: In all fairness, he doesn’t look a day over 46.]
Jaidee’s 69.2 Course Adj Rd Score is tied for second-best among golfers who have made more than one start at Gut Larchenhof. His 59.6 percent Long-Term Scrambling is fourth in the field. Of course, his Recent GIR of 57 percent is very troubling.
Golfers in this pricing tier in similar form have produced a negative Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Bradley Dredge is the only golfer in the field with both Long-Term and Recent Scrambling marks above 60 percent. He also ranks inside the field’s top 10 for both Long-Term and Recent Putts Per Round.
Value Plays ($6,900 and Lower)
Richard Green’s 59.5 percent Long-Term Scrambling percentage is fifth in the field, and his Recent Scrambling percentage of 57 percent is 15th.
Green has played well at this course, finishing 12th in 2014 and making the cut in his two other appearances. Green is accurate off the tee, but his 278.1-yard Long-Term DD is among the worst of the field.
I’m not sure why Mikko Korhonen is so cheap. His 65 percent Recent Scrambling percentage leads the entire field. He ranks in the top five for recent GIR and top ten for Long-term GIR.
Korhonen’s 69.2 Recent Adj Rd Score is tied for seventh this week and he has made six of his last seven cuts.
Par 5 Performance
Long-Term Form
Sebastian Gros absolutely crushes the ball off the tee. Both his Long-Term and Recent DD are the best in the field.
His -5.5 Par 5 Score is third in the field, and his -7.3 Recent Par 5 Score is tied for first. Gros also has the 11th-best Recent Adj Rd Score at 69.7, so he’s not just a one-trick pony. Gros is ready to eat on the Par 5s this week.
Recent Form
Joining Gros with the best Recent Par 5 Score is the aforementioned Colsaerts. And right behind them is Rikard Karlberg at -7. Karlberg is in tremendous form, with three straight top-ten finishes. He trails only Sergio with his 67.8 Recent Adj Rd Score.
