As NHL fans, we have been spoiled over the last two seasons with the wave of elite rookies coming into the league. Last year we had guys like Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, and Artemi Panarin.
McDavid: DFS Scouting Report
Eichel: DFS Scouting Report
This season we have players who already look like superstars in Auston Matthews, Patrik Laine, and Mitch Marner.
Matthews: DFS Scouting Report
This influx of high-end rookies has been a treat to watch as the NHL’s top-end talent gets younger.
Of course, with rookies comes ‘The Rookie Wall,’ the point in the season where rookies theoretically hit a proverbial wall, which causes their production to decrease significantly. Many theories surround this topic, most of which highlight that the Junior leagues have regular seasons that are about 10-15 games shorter. Used to these shorter seasons, rookies in theory aren’t used to the grind of an 82-game NHL schedule and so tire out.
With that in mind, I’ve used our Trends tool to look at the last two seasons to see how rookies have fared as the season has progressed. In the study I looked only at the top-eight rookie scorers from last season and this season. I set that threshold not only because they played at least 60 games — roughly three quarters of the season — but also because their point totals give them enough data to be relevant-fantasy contributors. However, I left out McDavid from last season, as he played only about half the season.
Let’s take a look at the rookies from last season.
2015-16 NHL Rookies – Monthly Scoring
I have sorted the months based on Plus/Minus to see how these rookies produced compared to their salary-based expectations. As you see, October and November were the only months in which these rookies had a Consistency Rating of 50 percent or higher. October was the highest of any month with a +2.8 Plus/Minus: While it’s likely that FanDuel underprices rookies early in the season, I expect that part of the value rookies provide in October is due to their young, fresh legs and the adrenaline of getting their first taste of the NHL.
February and March are two of the three worst months for rookies in terms of Plus/Minus, which isn’t surprising. However, April has the highest average points of all months. These are typically the final few regular season games or playoff games, so the April sample is the smallest. Given that April has only a 42 percent Consistency Rating, it’s possible that the April production is less the result of the calendar and more a function of the sample size and the players still competing at that point in the year.
2016-17 NHL Rookies – Monthly Scoring
This season, rookies had an incredible +6.2 Plus/Minus in October — once again the best month of the season in terms of value, probably because of a combination the players’ youthful energy and FD’s underestimation of the rookies. October once again provides the highest Consistency Rating (64 percent).
Also, March again is a poor month for rookie Plus/Minus, as FD has adjusted its pricing by this point in the season. Additionally, the month has the second-lowest average points of the season, so maybe there is something to the idea that rookies hit a wall as the season progresses.
2015-16 NHL Rookies – Home/Road
I was curious to see how rookies do while playing at home compared to traveling on the road:
Last season, they had a +1.5 Plus/Minus home/road differential. (I am ignoring the two neutral games.) The rookies also averaged 1.41 more points per game at home. That is significant enough for us to take into consideration.
2016-17 NHL Rookies – Home/Road
There was a clear difference in home/road splits for the 2015-16 rookie cohort. Has there been a similar trend this year?
Not quite. This season we are seeing slightly higher average points and Plus/Minus values on the road. Still, when the two rookie cohorts are collectively considered, the best rookies over the last two years have tended to be perform better at home.
Conclusion
After looking into this, I don’t believe that there is actually much of a rookie wall. While March isn’t a great DFS month for rookies, I believe that primarily has to do with their elevated salaries. Their average points are down a little bit, but not enough to cause concern. Over the last two years, top rookies have actually scored more FD points in March than in November.
It’s probably safe to use rookies as you normally would. Just know that their prices have been properly adjusted by this point, so you are no longer getting a discount.
Between these two seasons, one cohort has significant home/road splits while the other has almost agnostic splits. This is a topic we will revisit at the end of next season to see which trends continue and which are debunked.
