After last week’s unique team-up format, the PGA TOUR is back to a “normal” tournament this week. It’s not even a Signature Event, so it’s a typical, full-field event with all the usual drama and intrigue. The PGA TOUR is also back in Texas, where TPC Craig Ranch will host the Byron Nelson for the fourth straight season since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Last year, Jason Day snapped his five-year winless drought with his win here, and he’s back to defend his title along with a strong field that also includes Dallas favorite Jordan Spieth. Those two players are the only players priced over $10,000 in a field that looks very wide open. It’s an important tournament for players looking to take the next step and join the more elite tournaments since this will be the final opportunity to qualify for the next Signature Event, the Wells Fargo Championship, via the Aon Swing 5 and Aon Next 10.
If you don’t recognize the name of the tournament, that’s because it has a new title sponsor. The event has taken place in the Dallas metroplex dating back to 1944, but recently, it was called the AT&T Byron Nelson before being renamed THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson (not to be confused with THE CJ CUP that was on the PGA TOUR calendar in the past).
The name is new but the course is familiar. TPC Craig Ranch has proven to be a birdie maker’s paradise in the past few years, giving up low scores and above-average Driving Accuracy and GIR%. To win this week, players will have to go very low and excel in both ball-striking and putting.
In this post each week
The focus of this post is strong GPP options who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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Jason Day $10,400
Last year, Day memorably snapped a 105-event drought by going low on Sunday with a 62 (-9) in the Final Round that secured him the victory by one stroke over Si Woo Kim and Austin Eckroat. He also won this event in 2010 for his first career PGA TOUR victory, although that was on a different course.
The defending champion has the third-highest Perfect% and the third-best odds of winning the tournament and finishing in the top 10. He also has the third-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in the field and the third-highest SimLeverage among the golfers with salaries over $8,000 due to his ownership projection of under 20%.
Day hasn’t seriously contended on Sunday this season but posted top 10s at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the Genesis Invitational in two signature events. He has made the cut in six of his last seven events including a T30 at The Masters and a T18 at the RBC Heritage in his two most recent events. He closed with a strong 66 on Sunday at Harbour Town in one of his best ball striking rounds of the season.
Over the last 24 rounds, Day ranks in the top 25 in the field in Total Strokes Gained and the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Putting. in this limited field, he’s one of the most proven options, and he comes with just the seventh-highest ownership projection in the field, opening up some solid pay-up leverage.
Sungjae Im $9,700
Im is another proven fantasy producer on the PGA TOUR, but he comes with plenty of leverage after his slow start to 2024. Although he has earned his reputation as a grinder who plays almost every week, he will actually be making his first career appearance at this event, which is also keeping his ownership projection very manageable.
Im has the highest SimLeverage in the entire field and the fifth-highest Perfect%.
Early in 2024, Im only managed two top 20s in his first 11 tournaments, including four missed cuts. He missed the cut at the Valspar and the Masters before finding a little form at the RBC Heritage, where he finished T12 and took huge strides forward in his strokes gained metrics. Last week, he didn’t play in the Zurich Classic but traveled to Korea, where he successfully defended his title at the Woori Financial Group Championship on the Korean Tour.
He’ll be back in the States after his quick trip, and if he can continue that form, he could contend in this tournament as well. Im definitely has the game to contend in birdie-fests like this one since he can go low in a hurry. If he has found his form, he’ll end up a great leverage play from just under $10,000.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Keith Mitchell $8,800
No golfer between $8,200 and $9,100 has positive SimLeverage, indicating ownership is a little over-saturated in this price range. I like both Tom Kim and Tom Hoge in cash games, but for GPPs, I like the lower ownership projection of Keith Mitchell, who is around 15% instead of up near 20% like Tom and Tom.
Mitchell comes into this event with the ability to go low and contend in this style of event and plenty of recent form. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last eight tournaments with five top 20s during that stretch.
He has gained strokes on approach in seven straight starts and continues to be an elite producer off the tee. Over all rounds played this season, Mitchell leads the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and is second on Strokes Gained: Approach. The last piece of his game to come around is his putting, which has flashed some glimpses of hope in his last few events.
He hasn’t played on the PGA TOUR in almost a month, but he finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open the last time he teed it up. If his putter cooperates even a little bit, he should be in the mix on Sunday.
Adam Schenk $8,500
Two-time winner at this course K.H. Lee will get plenty of attention at $8,300, and Mackenzie Hughes is a strong play at $8,600. While both are strong but chalky cash considerations, for GPPs, I love the leverage of going with Schenk, who has better projections across the board and better SimLeverage. He’s chalkier than many of the options I usually highlight in this post, but just be sure to differentiate your lineups in other spots if you include Schenk this week.
He deserves attention since he comes in with very strong form and always brings a high ceiling. Schenk has made the cut in eight of his last 10 events, exceeding salary-based expectations in each of those eight tournaments. He finished T5 at the Valero Texas Open and chased that with a top-12 finish at the Masters, where he was a great bargain play.
Over the last 20 rounds, Schenk ranks sixth in the field in Total Strokes Gained and in the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He hasn’t had great showings on this track but has found success at similar layouts where low scoring is required to contend. Schenk is still in search of his first PGA TOUR victory after some near misses, and if there’s a breakthrough winner this week, he wouldn’t be a surprise given his strong trending form.
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Value PGA DFS Picks
Davis Thompson $7,900
Thompson has the third-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections and the highest Perfect% of the golfers with salaries under $8,000. His ownership projection is under 10%, which helps him have a strong SimLeverage compared to other golfers in the same salary range.
Last week, Thompson was in my picks for the Zurich Classic, and he teamed up with Andrew Novak to finish in the top 25. That was Thompson’s sixth top 25 in 12 events on the PGA TOUR this season and his third in his last four events. He ranks 10th in the field in Total Strokes Gained over the last 12 rounds, and his short game has looked especially sharp.
He’s another potential breakthrough winner this week, and he has shown the ability to contend in low-scoring events like this in the past. The 24-year-old is still a player on the rise and can take a big step forward with a high finish this week.
Sami Valimaki $7,000
Valimaki hasn’t really been a good fit for many of the courses in the rotation lately since he typically gains strokes off the tee and on the green but can sometimes go a little sideways on approach. He should find this layout more fitted to his skill set, and he showed his upside with his runner-up finish at the Mexico Open earlier this season. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last eight events including that one and made the cut at both THE PLAYERS and the Valspar before taking a few weeks off.
In the entire field, Valimaki has the second-highest SimLeverage behind only Sungjae Im, and he has the second-highest Perfect% of all golfers with salaries under $7,500 behind only C.T. Pan, who has more than quadruple Valimaki’s ownership projection.
Valimaki is definitely high risk in his course debut, but the 25-year-old from Finland showed a lot of poise and upside in his early-season events. He may not be ready to contend everywhere at this point in his career, but I love his upside in the right spot. With his ownership projection under 2%, he’s a very solid value that comes loaded with upside.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Ryan Moore $6,800
No player under $7,000 has an ownership projection over 5%, so anyone in this range will come with some solid leverage. Moore’s ownership projection is barely in the top 10 of players in this salary range at just over 2%.
The PGA TOUR veteran comes in with good momentum after exceeding salary-based expectations in four straight events, highlighted by a top-five finish at the Valspar. He ranks in the top five in Strokes Gained: Approach on the entire PGA TOUR this season, and he leads the field in that category over the last 20 rounds while ranking second during that span in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Moore hasn’t made the cut in his previous trips to TPC Craig Ranch, but he has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection of all players priced under $7,000 this week. He also has the fourth-highest Perfect% in this price range and the ninth-highest SimLeverage.
Nico Echavarria $6,500
Echavarria got his first PGA TOUR victory at the Puerto Rico Open last season and has posted six top 25s in his 13 events this year. Last week, he finished in the top five at the Zurich playing alongside Max Greyserman and finished in the top 15 the previous week at the Corales Puntacana Championship in the alternate-field event alongside the RBC Heritage.
The 29-year-old Colombian is in the top 50 on the PGA TOUR in GIR%, Strokes Gained: Putting, par-3 scoring and par-4 scoring. He’ll be making his debut at this event, but his recent results make him stand out as a cheap flier play with good upside.
He has the ability to go low fast and contend in weaker fields like this one. He’s a flier, to be sure, but a cheap one that gives you plenty of salary to play with in other spots.
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