Using our Stacking tool found within our revamped Models 3.0, this piece will identify some of the top stacks of the weekend. Likewise, check out our new Correlations page to find hidden edges in stacking positions and games.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver
- Drew Brees ($6,400 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)
- Michael Thomas ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
If you’re going to stack, it may as well be at the Coors Field of Fantasy Football, right? I know Brees is not putting up the monster stat lines we’d grown accustomed to in years past with the emergence of the two-headed beast at running back in New Orleans, but no defense on the slate has allowed a higher quarterback rating than the Panthers (92.0). Carolina will run out the third-best defensive line in football in regards to adjusted sack rate (Football Outsiders), but New Orleans should be able to handle the pressure. Their offensive line is ranked second-highest in that same category. The Saints are implied to score more points (27.25) than any team on the slate. Brees’ salary on DraftKings is as low as it has been all season and yet he still is tied for the highest ceiling projection on the main slate.
Brees’ pass attempts per game are down from 41.5 over the past five seasons to 33.5 in 2017. That hasn’t hurt Thomas, who finished sixth in the NFL with 9.3 targets per game, including 11 red zone targets over his last six games that resulted in four touchdowns. Also, Thomas has already joined in the barrage of top options running over the Carolina secondary over the past six weeks:
- Julio Jones: 5-80-0 (11 targets)
- Mike Evans: 6-107-0 (8 targets)
- Davante Adams: 5-57-1 (7 targets)
- Adam Thielen: 6-105-1 (12 targets)
- Michael Thomas: 5-70-1 (9 targets)
- Robby Anderson: 6-146-2 (10 targets)
If you’re still not convinced, allow me to recycle this gold nugget from our own Ian Hartiz from this week’s Wild Card WR Breakdown:
He’s caught 22 of 27 targets against corners James Bradberry and Daryl Worley – PFF’s No. 102 and No. 88 overall cornerbacks this season. Thomas practiced in full on Thursday and appears to be past his nagging hamstring issue given he played on 91 percent of the snaps and earned a 27 percent target share last week.
Running Back + D/ST
- Leonard Fournette ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)
- Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)
The Buffalo Bills have allowed the most PPG to running backs on both DraftKings (29.1) and FanDuel (25.4) this season. Additionally, the Bills have surrendered 740 total rushing yards in their past five games and rank 31st in run DVOA. The Jaguars are currently 8.5-point home favorites and Fournette is locked into a three-down role on the league’s most run-heavy offense. Poor game script is slightly concerning, but he’s averaged four targets per game since the Jaguars’ Week 8 bye and has at least three receptions in each of his last five games. Only Todd Gurley and Kareem Hunt have a higher-projected ceiling than Fournette and he comes at a huge discount in regards to salary.
With the second-highest adjusted sack rate in the league, the Jaguars D/ST should absolutely dominate the line of scrimmage, where Buffalo is bottom-two in the same category on the other side of the ball. Naturally, Tyrod Taylor’s 9.9 percent sack rate leads the slate by a large margin as Jacoby Brissett (10.0 percent) is the only quarterback with a higher percentage of sacks allowed while attempting to pass. The Jaguars averaged 12.69 PPG with a +4.46 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +5.19 Plus/Minus on FanDuel in their 16 regular season games this year. Even though they are $1,000 more expensive than the next closest option, they are currently the highest-rated defense in Bales Model for DraftKings.
Quarterback + Running Back + Wide Receiver + Opposing Tight End
- Alex Smith ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
- Kareem Hunt ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
- Tyreek Hill ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
- Delanie Walker ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel)
With clear alpha dog at tight end Travis Kelce soaking up a ton of ownership, consider pairing Smith with Tyfreak instead. Hill’s 11.3 yards per target was second-highest in the league and Smith’s 130.5 QBR when throwing his way was more than any other QB-WR combination (Pro Football Focus). PFF also has Hill with a top-five CB/WR matchup against Adoree’ Jackson. It’s ultimately a strong matchup against a Titans 24th-ranked defense in pass DVOA.
If fading Kelce, it may make sense to roster Hunt, as their correlation coefficient together is a notably putrid -0.21, far worse than the average RB1-TE1 (0.10). Not to mention Hunt has absolutely smashed since Matt Nagy took over, dropping 24.6 DraftKings PPG and a +7.0 Plus/Minus after Week 12. Tennessee is also dead last in defending running backs in the passing game per DVOA and Hunt has three or more receptions in four of his last five games. Per our Wild Card Market Share Report, Hunt should be heavily involved in scoring position as well:
“In Weeks 15 and 16, the Chiefs pounded Hunt in the red zone, giving him a whopping nine carries and two additional targets.”
The matchup isn’t great for Walker, but for a conservative team like the Titans, it’s not always easy to run it back. The Chiefs rank 12th in TE DVOA, allowing the third-fewest catches and second-fewest touchdowns to tight ends this season. Over the past five weeks, Walker’s 23 percent target market share leads all Titans pass-catchers. He’s a top-five tight end in DraftKings PPG points over his last four games if we remove Week 17 where he played just 52.3 percent of snaps. With a 96 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, he boasts the highest ceiling of any Titans pass-catcher.
Photo via Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
