I didn’t sleep very well on Monday night.
I’ve already moved well past Week 3’s results, but here’s a question that I’ve been thinking about and I don’t think there is particularly very a good answer to: when do we know our decisions in DFS are ever fully, 100%, correct?
Think about it. Outside of very few instances, almost all of our feelings on our weekly outcomes are entirely based on whatever result occurs. I stared at my cash game lineup for about an hour before the 1pm games started on Sunday and felt really good about my team. I play just one cash lineup every week – it’s maximum variance, but I prefer it that way – and my lone decision remaining was either Jonathan Stewart (4.9k) or Devonta Freeman (4.6k). I went with Stewart.
Now, in hindsight of course, Freeman was the slam-dunk play but was he the right play? Was my process wrong? One thing I’m trying to do a lot more of this year is reflect on my weekly decision-making. My cash lineup last week scored 160.4 Draft Kings points – a great total – but Week 3 was a monster week. Everyone went off, including the guy I faded, Devonta Freeman.
I’m still not sure if I was simply wrong to play Stewart over Freeman or if I was actually “playing scared,” but I do know decision-making can’t solely live in results-driven hindsight.
Let’s get to Week 4’s important trends.
- Tyrod Taylor is Smashing His Salary-Implied Expectation
This one is an alley-oop. Tyrod is $5800 on DraftKings this week and is facing the Giants secondary that has given up three straight 300-plus yard performances to Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, and Kirk Cousins to start the season. One major thing I like about playing Tyrod is you theoretically don’t have to stack him with anyone because his rushing ability really elevates his floor. There’s a legitimate argument Taylor is the top QB play in cash games this week, but I personally haven’t decided if I’m going to roster him or Aaron Rodgers yet.
- QB Expectation With High Wind Speeds
It looked like Hurricane Joaquin was bearing down on the East Coast of the United States earlier in the week, but at the time this column was written, it seems the storm will miss the States entirely. Clearly if it did make landfall Saturday or Sunday on the East Coast that has it’s own set of non-fantasy related real world problems, but this trend is just a reminder for Kirk Cousins and Sam Bradford (1pm game at Washington) that high wind speeds negatively correlates with quarterbacks’ fantasy output.
- Defense’s Expectation When Opponent Plus/Minus is +3 or More
This is a cool trend because it allows me to be lazy and just arbitrarily select a defense based on opposition (I’m joking of course). Picking defenses has to go beyond opposition and expectation, but it does seem like the Colts (opp. +/- 3.8) and the Cardinals (opp. +/- 3.7) are in great spots at home against the Jaguars and the Rams respectively. The Eagles D/ST is also highlighted here (opp. +/- 3.9), but they’re on the road and Vegas set Washington’s team total at 20.25. I’m probably paying up for Seattle at home against the interception-tossing Matthew Stafford in cash games; but you could do worse than blindly picking the defense that is playing against Blake Bortles.
